Analysis of the development situation of power battery technology
1. The current technology maturity of ternary and lithium iron phosphate
batteries is high
1. Ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the focus of corporate
layout
In the field of automotive power batteries, lithium batteries have become
mainstream. At present, the main battery types of international mainstream power
battery companies are basically lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium
batteries.
From the perspective of the Chinese market, lithium iron phosphate and
ternary batteries are still the mainstream of vehicle power batteries, with
installed capacity accounting for 94.5% and 93.3% of the total market in 2016
and 2017.
2. Lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries still have a period
of development.
After a period of development, the technical level of lithium iron
phosphate and ternary lithium batteries has been significantly improved. In
terms of cost, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery packs dropped from
1.8-1.9 yuan/Wh at the beginning of 2017 to 1.45-1.55 yuan/Wh at the end of
2017. The price of ternary power battery packs dropped from 1.7-1.8 yuan/Wh at
the beginning of the year to 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh at the end of the year.
In terms of energy density, at the end of 2017, the energy density of
battery cells based on NCM622 materials exceeded 200Wh/kg, and the system energy
density was 160Wh/kg. In 2018, the energy density of battery cells is expected
to reach 230~250Wh/kg.
There is still room for improvement in these two types of batteries,
especially the improvement of battery performance by new generation materials,
such as the research and development of cathode material 811 and silicon carbon
anode, which will further increase the energy density of lithium power
batteries. The single energy density is expected to be Reaching 300Wh/kg,
coupled with the strong foundation of these two battery industries, competition
in the industry will still exist for a certain period of time.
2. Solid-state batteries have become the focus of current layout
From the perspective of technical potential, the theoretical energy density
of lithium iron phosphate system is about 170Wh/kg, and the theoretical energy
density of ternary lithium battery is 300-350Wh/kg. At the same time, there are
safety issues such as low thermal decomposition temperature and easy combustion
and explosion. The space for energy density improvement is relatively small.
However, all-solid-state lithium batteries have great potential to increase
energy density and are theoretically more feasible.
1. Potential technical advantages of solid-state lithium batteries
The biggest feature of solid-state lithium batteries compared with
traditional lithium batteries is that they use solid electrolyte materials. When
the electrodes and electrolyte materials used are solid and do not contain any
liquid components, they are all-solid-state lithium batteries. Solid
electrolytes have changed the traditional structure of lithium batteries.
Separators, liquid electrolytes, etc. are no longer necessary components,
bringing huge potential for technological advantages.
The main technical advantages of solid-state lithium batteries are: first,
they are highly safe, do not contain flammable, volatile and toxic organic
solvents, and have no leakage problems. They are expected to avoid the
generation of lithium dendrites and greatly reduce the risk of battery
combustion and explosion. risk. The second is the long cycle life. There is no
problem that the liquid electrolyte produces a solid electrolyte interface film
during the charge and discharge cycle. The expected life span currently
developed is 15,000-20,000 times. Third, the energy density is high. In
traditional lithium batteries, the separator and electrolyte account for 40% of
the volume. Solid electrolytes can significantly reduce the distance between the
positive and negative electrodes of the battery and increase the volume specific
energy. The maximum potential energy density of all-solid-state lithium
batteries is estimated to be 900Wh. /kg. Fourth, the system has a high specific
energy density, and the solid electrolyte has no fluidity, so it can be
connected in series to form high-voltage cells, which is beneficial to improving
the efficiency and energy density of the power battery system. Fifth, the
selection range of positive and negative electrode materials is wide, and new
technologies such as metallic lithium negative electrodes and high-potential
positive electrode materials can be used at the same time. All-solid-state
metallic lithium batteries are the research and development direction of new
batteries in the future. In addition, solid-state batteries have a wide
operating temperature range and electrochemical stability window, and have the
potential to be thinned and flexible.
2. Global companies are deploying solid-state batteries to compete for
opportunities.
Due to the current bottlenecks of lithium iron phosphate and ternary
lithium batteries, as well as the potential advantages of solid-state batteries,
many companies in the industry chain involving power batteries, automobiles and
energy in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China and other
countries are actively deploying and developing solid-state batteries.
Battery.
Generally speaking, European and American countries are mainly
entrepreneurial companies based on solid-state battery technology, while Japan
mainly focuses on battery technology innovation by traditional car companies and
machinery companies. Chinese companies entered the field of solid-state lithium
batteries relatively late, and are mainly supported by scientific research
institutions or universities, and the industrialization process is slow.
3. Technical and industrial barriers need to be broken through urgently
Through the research of enterprises and research institutions, solid-state
battery technology has achieved breakthroughs, with energy density exceeding
300Wh/kg. However, they are basically laboratory products and are still far away
from industrialization.
At the technical level, solid electrolyte ionic conductivity, solid/solid
interface compatibility and stability are still two major constraints. The
conductivity of polymer electrolytes is low at room temperature and generally
needs to be heated to above 60°C to work properly. For example, Bolloré in
France uses a technical route of polymer electrolytes and battery heating; the
conductivity of sulfide electrolytes is currently at the same level as
traditional lithium batteries Quite, but it is still necessary to break through
the interface phase problem, mainly through material synthesis and nanolayer
technology to increase the amount of active substances and reduce the interface
layer resistance. At the same time, metallic lithium anodes and new composite
cathode materials are still under development, and are expected to realize the
application of all-solid-state lithium metal batteries. By then, there will be
huge breakthroughs in energy density, capacity, rate performance, safety
performance and cycle life.
At the industrialization level, the dilemma of failing to achieve
large-scale production mainly lies in production equipment, production
technology and production line environment. For example, the lamination,
coating, and packaging processes in solid-state battery preparation require
customized high-precision equipment, and the production line environment also
needs to maintain a higher level of drying room. Only when large-scale
production achieves an increase in output and capacity can the cost of
solid-state lithium batteries be reduced.
Overall, the production and preparation maturity of solid-state lithium
batteries still needs to be strengthened, and large-scale and automated
production lines need further research and development. It is still in the
industry accumulation period. The overall development path of solid-state
batteries is that due to the stability problem of solid/solid interface, the
content of liquid electrolyte gradually decreases, and the transition from
liquid → semi-solid → solid-liquid hybrid → solid state → all-solid-state
battery; in the development of all-solid-state lithium metal batteries, Due to
the rechargeability problem of metallic lithium anode, the anode material will
transition from graphite → alloyed anode (such as Si/C) → metallic lithium
anode. With the development of R&D technology and industrial production, the
performance and production of solid-state batteries will be gradually optimized,
ushering in opportunities in the power battery market.
3. Potential technology substitutes still exist
In addition to the improvement of current lithium batteries and the layout
of solid-state batteries, domestic and foreign companies and
institutions/universities have made different attempts in power battery
technology innovation. Some indicators have been greatly improved compared with
the current level, providing opportunities for improving the performance of
power batteries. A powerful reference.
By sorting out the technical indicators of typical innovation cases
collected, it can be found that the key indicators of some products have been
improved. In terms of energy density, the energy density of aluminum-air
batteries reaches 780Wh/kg, lithium-sulfur batteries reach 350Wh/kg, and
solid-state batteries reach 360Wh/kg; in terms of charging rates, the maximum
charging rate of typical innovative products has exceeded 100C. In terms of
cycle life, typical innovative products can already exceed 15,000 times.
New batteries have many advantages. First, in terms of technology, for
example, lithium-sulfur batteries use sulfur as the cathode material, and the
theoretical specific energy of the battery can reach up to 2600Wh/kg.
Lithium-air batteries are also a very potential high-specific-capacity battery
technology. The reversible reaction of lithium metal and oxygen has a
theoretical upper limit of energy density of 11,000Wh/kg. Second, the industry
can reduce its dependence on scarce resources. For example, sodium-ion batteries
have the advantages of abundant reserves and lower costs than lithium-ion
batteries.
However, current innovative power battery products are generally laboratory
products, and new batteries still face many challenges in the next step of
industrialization. For example, lithium-sulfur batteries have low safety, low
volume specific energy, low discharge rate, low energy conversion efficiency and
low cycle times, making it difficult to be applied in the automotive field in a
short time. In general, although these studies are currently in the experimental
stage and are far away from industrialization, whether they can replace existing
system batteries in a certain period of time is also controversial in the
industry. But there is no doubt that these batteries are expected to break some
of the current technical bottlenecks of power batteries, reduce battery costs,
and create longer cruising ranges. In the development process of the power
battery industry, these batteries cannot be ignored.
4. Summary
From the perspective of technological development, currently ternary and
lithium iron phosphate batteries have dominated the automotive power battery
market. Ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries have become the main
technical routes of mainstream companies, and companies are further deploying
these two technical routes. From a development perspective, ternary and lithium
iron phosphate battery technologies have made breakthroughs, but there is still
room for further improvements in technology, and industrial competition will
continue for some time.
From the perspective of new battery technology layout, solid-state
batteries have technical advantages and can solve many problems faced by the
current industry. Domestic and foreign companies are rushing to lay out and
achieve technological breakthroughs. However, from the perspective of industrial
development, solid-state batteries are now in the industry accumulation period,
and there are still many technical and industrial supporting issues that need to
be solved urgently.
On the other hand, in addition to the improvement of current lithium
batteries and the layout of solid-state batteries, many research institutions
are also developing new generation batteries such as lithium-sulfur and
lithium-air batteries, and have made breakthroughs in certain technologies,
providing opportunities for the development of the battery industry. Favorable
reference. But in general, these studies are basically in the experimental
stage, far away from industrialization, and there are many controversies in the
industry. However, it is undeniable that these batteries are expected to break
some bottlenecks of current power batteries and are still in the process of
industrial development. Can not be ignored.
While battery companies are improving the performance of existing
technology products, they should also actively develop the research and
development of next-generation batteries in order to dominate the next round of
competition. Government departments should encourage enterprises, research
institutions and universities to develop key materials, battery cells and system
key technologies for power batteries through various channels such as science
and technology plans (special projects, funds), relevant innovation projects and
high-tech industry development projects. Research and development, and actively
promote the engineering and industrialization of key technologies and equipment
such as the preparation, production process, and testing of new products and new
materials such as solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries, and metal-air
batteries, promote the construction of engineering technology capabilities
across the entire industry chain, and Promote the application of new power
battery technologies and products in demonstration and promotion projects.
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