27A battery

　　In what ways will energy storage technology change in the next ten years?

　　California solar industry expert Barry Cinnamon recently presented his predictions for the U.S. residential solar and energy storage market and energy storage technology development in 2020 and the next 10 years.

　　Predicting future developments is not easy, especially as the solar and energy storage industries adopt emerging technologies and face higher requirements. Here are some predictions that I hope will be roughly correct for behind-the-meter energy systems.

　　1. The supporting deployment of energy storage systems and solar power generation systems will become a standard

　　Stand-alone solar power generation facilities are rarely deployed today. Net metering, unreliable utility power, lower battery costs, changes in grid service functions and energy management functions will drive customers to choose more full-service solar power facilities and battery energy storage systems. When necessary, the solar power facility contractor's operations will expand into spare panel and communications cabling, as well as complex commissioning and configuration procedures.

　　2. New cost indicators are needed

　　For more than 20 years, the solar industry has measured costs based on installed capacity. However, adding battery storage to a solar power system increases costs and confuses energy-saving calculations. Hopefully experts at the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and US Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) can better explain these new indicators.

　　3. Is there a corresponding application?

　　Mobile apps are the standard for customer system monitoring. In order for these applications to work properly, there must be reliable inverter communication with a server somewhere in the cloud. Although Wi-Fi, ZigBee and Bluetooth protocols are convenient and relatively cheap, they depend on the customer's router and Internet connection. Hardwired Ethernet or high-bandwidth cellular protocols are more suitable for the reliable communications required by customer applications.

　　4. Software is becoming more and more important

　　Experienced solar and energy storage system contractors will select systems based on software functionality: customer applications, installer commissioning, management interface, utility interface. Regardless of the capabilities and functionality of the hardware, there is a cost associated with using software.

　　5. Net costs rise rather than fall

　　As labor, inverter and rack costs rise, energy storage manufacturers are increasing energy storage system permitting fees and safety requirements, while regulations are becoming more restrictive (especially for battery deployment). Customers expect more integration with existing electrical systems. To make matters worse, the gradual reduction of the investment tax credit will increase the cost of energy storage system deployment by 4% in 2020, another 4% in 2021, and an increase of 12% to 22% in 2022. But lower hardware costs won't offset these higher soft costs.

　　6. Battery and inverter integration

　　Unlike solar modules, which are interchangeable with almost any inverter, battery storage systems will be designed and branded by the inverter company. The integration between battery and inverter is specific to maintain its integrity, performance and ease of installation. Contractors want one point of contact for solar and storage systems.

　　7. No standard energy system interface

　　There is a lack of coordination between various residential energy systems (solar, storage, electric vehicles, HVAC, lighting, etc.) and major home app providers Google and Apple. Security requirements and a lack of industry standards mean integration of these devices is still at least five years away. In the meantime, dedicated apps for each major device will continue to be available on phones.

　　8. Battery performance will remain challenging

　　The reliability and expected performance of solar energy systems are well proven. However, battery system performance depends on many more variables (temperature, usage, building consumption, battery reliability, operating characteristics), making it easier to overstate the benefits of these systems and almost impossible to predict their cost savings.

　　9. Electric vehicles use better-performing batteries

　　As electric carmakers work to develop and adopt batteries to improve EV range, it could be five to 10 years before more suitable batteries are adopted.

　　10. The dawn of development of industrial and commercial energy storage

　　Residential battery storage systems began to develop rapidly about two years ago when industry-leading inverter and battery companies released well-integrated turnkey solutions. Commercial and industrial energy storage customers will experience similar growth as these companies launch battery storage systems based on existing solar inverters.

　　Solar, wind and energy storage systems will play a vital role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming. The energy industry will continue to step up to address this issue and provide the most practical, impactful and cost-effective solutions.

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