A quiet revolution is about to begin! Global electric vehicle sales are
expected to exceed 5 million units in the next two years, driving a surge in
demand for batteries and related components. In response to traditional car
manufacturers joining the electric vehicle war, the world's five largest
automotive lithium battery manufacturers are all making every effort to
consolidate the supply of lithium and cobalt. , nickel and other metal sources,
and at the same time massively expanded production capacity. In addition,
manufacturers have also begun to develop towards high-nickel ternary batteries
and solid-state batteries. Whoever can lead the pack in the future will be the
new winner in the battery industry.
In order not to let the American electric car manufacturer Tesla take the
lead, Germany's two major luxury car manufacturers Mercedes-Benz and Audi both
launched their first electric vehicles in September. Among them, Mercedes-Benz
launched an electric SUV called EQC ( SUV), priced at about US$49,000, which is
quite close to Tesla's entry-level model Model 3. It is understood that more
than 2,000 orders have been accumulated so far, and the vehicle is expected to
be delivered in 2019. In addition, supercar Porsche also plans to invest 6
billion euros in developing electric vehicle technology by 2022.
In addition to luxury brands, affordable brands are also stepping up their
efforts in the future development of electric vehicles. The Volkswagen Group
recently released a new MEB modular electric vehicle chassis platform and will
launch its first new car, the Volkswagen ID, in 2019. In particular, this MEB
modular chassis platform will be widely used in various brands of the group, and
it is expected to accumulate 27 electric vehicles of different brands and models
by the end of 2022.
According to the International Energy Agency's Global Electric Vehicle
Outlook, the number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles worldwide exceeded 3
million in 2017, an increase of 54% from 2016. The number of electric vehicles
is expected to reach 125 million by 2030. As more and more traditional car
manufacturers enter the field of electric vehicles, the demand for lithium
batteries and related materials such as (positive and negative electrode
materials, separators and electrolytes) will only increase.
A survey report by the Yano Economic Research Institute, a Japanese
investigative agency, pointed out that since Germany will ban the sale of
internal combustion engine vehicles from 2030 and the United Kingdom and France
from 2040, various car manufacturers will accelerate the launch of
environmentally friendly vehicles such as electric vehicles. New car models are
expected to boost the continued growth of the automotive lithium battery market.
It is estimated that the automotive lithium battery market will expand to
1.97GWh in 2020, an increase of 1.57 times compared with 2016, and is expected
to further expand to 254.9GWh by 2025. .
Faced with the gradual growth of terminal demand such as electric vehicles,
battery-related companies have all stepped up their pace to expand production.
Since CATL, the world's largest automotive lithium battery manufacturer, was
listed on June 11 this year, its stock price once soared to a high of 83.9909
yuan. Although affected by the U.S.-China trade war, its stock price has
recently fallen back to around 64.0014 yuan, a short-term decline of about 23%.
, slightly lower than Chinese auto parts stocks or automobile stocks, showing
that the market still has expectations for the prospects of electric
vehicles.
As they continue to increase their electric vehicle production capacity,
German automakers are increasingly relying on Asian suppliers, especially
battery suppliers. Therefore, BMW also recently approached CATL for cooperation,
and the two parties signed a US$1.16 billion contract. LG Chem also spent
US$1.63 billion to build Europe's largest electric vehicle battery factory in
Poland, which is nothing more than hoping that car manufacturers such as
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz will seize the electric vehicle pie in the
future.
The current electric vehicle penetration rate cannot be effectively
accelerated. The biggest key lies in the high cost of batteries. Metal raw
materials such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel included in lithium batteries are
often susceptible to fluctuations caused by international situations or
artificial hype. Panasonic, a major Japanese battery manufacturer, has recently
announced plans to mass-produce cylindrical lithium batteries with half the
current cobalt content within 2-3 years, which is expected to significantly
reduce battery costs, thereby making the price of electric vehicles no longer
unattainable.
In order to solve the problem of rising costs and promote products with
high energy density (more than 200Wh/kg), battery core manufacturers are
actively introducing cathode materials such as nickel manganese cobalt (NCM) and
nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) to increase the use of nickel metal. The relative
proportion of cobalt metal will also gradually decrease. According to the ratio
of nickel manganese and cobalt, ternary batteries can be divided into 111, 523,
622, 811 and other models. Since the main role of nickel is to increase energy
density, Panansonic currently almost dominates the field of high-nickel ternary
power batteries. The cylindrical battery used by Panasonic in Tesla Model 3 has
improved the battery energy density by 20% through the application of improved
high-nickel cathode materials and silicon carbon anode materials.
According to the "Action Plan to Promote the Development of the Automotive
Power Battery Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology of China, by 2020, the battery energy density will reach 300Wh/kg and
the system specific energy will reach 260Wh/kg. Under the current technical
conditions, it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate and cathode materials
below 622 to meet the above requirements. If you want to achieve an energy
density of more than 300Wh/kg, 811 ternary battery is almost the only choice.
Therefore, in the future, in response to China's more stringent battery
standards, battery-related manufacturers are bound to develop towards
high-nickel ternary batteries.
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