After several years of ups and downs, companies in the new energy vehicle
power battery field that cannot really occupy a certain share can only choose to
exit the power battery business, start 3C or enter the energy storage field.
Other companies that did not foresee the opportunity are also planning early in
areas such as electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, low-speed vehicles and
forklifts. With the introduction of the mandatory national standard "Electric
Bicycle Safety Technical Specifications" (GB17761-2018), lithium electricity
will usher in an explosive period in these fields. Compared with the two giants
in the lead-acid field, these transformed power battery companies still have the
opportunity to become the dominant players in this field. There are many details
on the subsidy policy and the situation over the years in the online comparative
research, so I will not repeat it here. Several key issues were briefly
introduced. One is to cancel subsidies for pure electric passenger cars. The
scope of the subsidy is less than 250km and the energy density of the battery
system is less than 125Wh/kg. The second is to reduce the subsidy for pure
electric passenger cars between 250 kilometers and 400 kilometers to 18,000
yuan, the subsidy for more than 400 kilometers from 50,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan,
and the plug-in hybrid powertrain subsidy is also reduced from 22,000 yuan to
10,000 yuan. Third, in terms of new energy buses, subsidies for non-fast
charging pure electric buses, fast charging pure electric buses and plug-in
hybrid buses have been reduced from 1,200 yuan/kWh, 2,100 yuan/kWh and 1,500
yuan/kWh to 500 yuan/kWh respectively. Yuan/kWh, 900 Yuan/kWh and 500 Yuan/kWh.
Fourth, cancel local subsidies, from subsidizing cars to subsidizing charging
infrastructure. Based on the above points, it can be expected that the cost
pressure brought by the implementation of the new policy on major original
equipment manufacturers will still be great. OEM's future sales pricing and cost
control strategies will inevitably be affected by the significant reduction in
subsidies. Not only auto parts companies, but especially battery manufacturers
and PACK-related parts companies are bound to receive more cost reduction
requirements. In order to cope with OEM's cost reduction requirements, battery
factories must try to control the procurement costs of battery raw materials and
PACK components. Some battery factories have made it a top priority to reduce
costs in key tasks in 2019 by at least 35%-40%. Among core materials such as
positive and negative electrodes, separators and electrolytes, the prices of
electrolytes, separators, etc. have decreased in different proportions in the
past few years. However, due to the large proportion of cathode materials, it
will be affected by fluctuations in upstream raw material prices. It is
completely unrealistic for the battery core to completely follow the ratio of
cost reduction. Therefore, core manufacturers can only do their best to reduce
packaging costs, from using standard modules to achieve economies of scale, to
replacing imported parts with domestic parts as much as possible, and constantly
optimizing structural design to reduce the application of redundant parts.
Moreover, it is impossible to replace parts by lowering technical standards
without affecting overall performance and safety. Some leading battery
manufacturers can rely on their market size advantages to further deepen
cooperation with various suppliers and form strategic partnerships to ensure
that they have a certain bargaining space. Suppliers who are already deeply tied
to large factories or operating in other areas will more decisively refuse to
cooperate with small and medium-sized battery factories with long account
cycles, delayed payments and insufficient funds. Therefore, small and
medium-sized battery companies without obvious market scale advantages and
financial support may not be able to withstand cost pressures. Without market
scale, they have no bargaining power, and cost disadvantages will lead to
further loss of market scale, forming an endless cycle. 2019 will be a year for
further clean-up and integration of domestic battery factories, and the market
structure will become increasingly clear. Competitive Pressure and Development
Changes in Domestic Battery Factories According to data released online, the
ranking of battery factories in different years from 2015 to 2018 will be
slightly different due to differences in company shipments and installed
capacity. But judging from the overall trend, the market concentration of the
two giants will not change in the next five or 10 years. In the past decade or
so, with the development of the power battery industry, the technical routes of
square, flexible packaging, and cylindrical shapes have shown a three-pronged
trend, and major battery manufacturers have been competing to seize market
share. After the Waterma incident, market share began to decline. Square
batteries such as CATL and BYD gained absolute advantages, and soft-packaged
batteries caught up with each other. In 2018, the number of new energy vehicle
soft bags grew rapidly, with 7.5GW installed, an increase of 60.73% over the
same period last year, accounting for 13% of the total installed capacity. The
top ten companies accounted for 83% of the total installed soft pack batteries,
which is also in line with the trend of further concentration of resources in
the hands of a few people. The top ten software package companies are: Funeng
Technology, National Energy Battery, Carnegie New Energy, Wanxiang 123, Thornton
New Energy, Microvast Power, Gitvik Power, CATL, United Shili, Tianjin New
Energy. From a technical perspective, the reason for flexible packaging may be
that flexible packaging is safer and has higher energy density. From a
structural design perspective, the layout method can be flexibly matched to
different group requirements. In addition, the thickness of the battery core can
be designed to be very thin, and the specific surface area can have strong
uniform heat dissipation and heat dissipation capabilities, ensuring the safety
of thermal management. According to statistics from the research department of
power battery companies, domestic power battery companies reached their peak in
2016. The main reason is that the demand for power batteries exceeds the
capacity of the entire industry. At that time, the gross profit of power
batteries was still at a high level, and many companies were facing headwinds.
However, after the false subsidies, as the country continues to update and
improve its subsidy policies, the amount of subsidies has also been reduced, and
the technical requirements have also increased. Previously, with the development
of commercial vehicles and special vehicles, some leading companies in the
industry entered a period of slow growth and their market share continued to
decline. Coupled with various downstream cost pressures, the number of power
battery companies has gradually decreased since 2017. Those companies that have
still failed to truly occupy a certain share of the new energy vehicle battery
industry after several years of ups and downs can only exit the battery
business, restart 3C or enter energy storage. Other companies that do not
foresee many opportunities also have early deployments of electric two-wheelers,
three-wheelers, low-speed vehicles and forklifts. After the introduction of the
mandatory national standard (gb19761-2017) for "Electric Bicycle Safety
Technical Specifications", lithium batteries will cause an outbreak in these
areas. Just like the two giants in the lead-acid field, there is still a chance
for those modified power battery companies to become the dominant players in
this field.
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