502030 battery.Hydrogen and lithium technology: Who will dominate the cars of the future?

　　With the advancement of the concept of global sustainable development, my country's environmental protection and carbon emission issues have become increasingly prominent. At the same time, the extremely high dependence on imported petroleum resources has also become a potential risk factor threatening my country's national energy security. Therefore, it is imperative for my country to replace traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles.

　　With the advancement of the concept of global sustainable development, my country's environmental protection and carbon emission issues have become increasingly prominent. At the same time, the extremely high dependence on imported petroleum resources has also become a potential risk factor threatening my country's national energy security. Therefore, it is imperative for my country to replace traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles.

　　But what are the alternatives?

　　The jury is still out. At present, the more mainstream new energy vehicle solution is lithium battery pure electric vehicle. After decades of development, its technological maturity has been guaranteed to a certain extent, and quantitative production has begun to enter the market.

　　From 2011 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of market sales was 78.8%. However, due to insufficient battery life, infrastructure and manufacturing cost constraints, its passenger car market share is still less than 5% so far. Moreover, many recent lithium battery car fire accidents have caused public concern about the safety of lithium batteries.

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　　At the same time, hydrogen fuel cells have quickly attracted the attention of the entire society with their high energy density and completely clean energy use process, becoming a new alternative for new energy vehicles.

　　Will hydrogen energy, a new energy vehicle, replace lithium battery vehicles and become mainstream in the future? Or are the two options compatible with each other?

　　Many people in the industry have compared the two solutions from the perspective of cost of use, but Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that the implementation of a technical solution in the field of new energy vehicles will inevitably lead to changes in the entire industrial chain and even adjustments to the energy structure of the entire society. It has social significance. major. The overall energy use efficiency of society must be further considered on the basis of micro-use costs before a scientific comparative analysis of the two technical solutions can be conducted.

　　01

　　The essence of the difference between hydrogen and lithium technical solutions is the energy carrier

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　　Throughout the history of human development, it is also a history of continuous improvement in the way humans use energy. The first industrial revolution enabled humans to convert the chemical energy of fossil fuels into the kinetic energy of steam engines, while the second industrial revolution enabled humans to further convert the chemical energy of fossil fuels into electrical energy. Every revolution is accompanied by improvements in energy density and energy efficiency. Therefore, improvement in energy efficiency is a decisive factor in whether a new technology can replace old technology and gain social acceptance.

　　Under the current technical conditions, tracing back to the source of energy generation, the technical routes of the two new energy vehicle technology solutions of "hydrogen" and "lithium" can be summarized into the following five types:

　　The energy sources of the two technical solutions of hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries are exactly the same. They are both fossil fuels (coal, natural gas) or other energy sources (nuclear, water, wind and solar energy). There is no difference in the final output, both are driven by the movement of the car. For electrical energy, the main difference is the intermediate energy storage method. The "lithium battery" solution uses electricity as the energy carrier and lithium batteries as the storage method; while the "hydrogen energy" solution uses hydrogen chemistry as the energy carrier and hydrogen gas as the storage method.

　　Therefore, from a social perspective, which solution is more energy efficient, which solution is likely to gain a dominant position in the future.

　　02

　　Energy utilization efficiency analysis of different solutions

　　Efficiency calculation of key links in technical route

　　Except for technical route 2, the other technical routes have exactly the same contradiction between the "hydrogen" and "lithium" solutions: whether to use lithium battery storage to realize mobile electric energy applications, or to convert electricity into hydrogen energy storage and then use fuel cells Transformed into mobile power applications?

　　That is, the path selection problem of "electricity → mobile electric energy" vs. "electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric energy". If this problem is solved, the advantages and disadvantages of the "hydrogen" and "lithium" solutions among the four technical routes 1, 3, 4, and 5 will naturally be clear. The energy utilization efficiency of the two paths is analyzed as follows:

　　Lithium battery solution (electricity → mobile power)

　　The energy conversion process consumption of lithium battery system includes: power transmission consumption, grid transformation cost, lithium battery production cost, charging station cost, battery self-weight consumption cost, battery charging and discharging energy consumption, etc.

　　(1) Power transmission loss. Since the power of lithium battery vehicles is transmitted through the existing power grid, there is no need to consider the cost of power grid construction. The loss during power transmission is currently estimated to be about 4%.

　　(2) Lithium battery production cost. With the expansion of production batches in the future, the cost of current lithium batteries for compact family cars will continue to decline due to economies of scale. It is expected to drop to about 20,000 yuan in the next few years. According to the battery life cycle of 600 times of charging and discharging, each time If the battery life is 400km, the battery cost during the lifetime is about 8.3 yuan/100km.

　　(3) Charging station construction costs. According to research, the current construction cost of charging stations is about 2 million (including 10 60Kw fast charging piles). Assuming a service life of 10 years and an average utilization rate of 20%, the average shared construction cost per kilowatt hour is about 0.2 yuan/kwh.

　　(4) Grid transformation cost. When a large number of charging piles are laid out, the power supply will exceed the load of the local grid, and the grid needs to be transformed. Assuming that the grid transformation investment for a single charging station is 1.2 million yuan, the grid transformation cost per kilowatt hour is about 0.18 yuan/kwh.

　　(5) The battery’s own weight consumes electric energy. Generally, the lithium battery power system of a family car weighs about 500kg and consumes about 2.8kwh/100km of electricity.

　　(6) Lithium battery charging and discharging consumption. At present, the electric energy consumption of lithium battery during charging and discharging is about 8%.

　　To sum up, according to current estimates, a lithium battery car consumes 15kwh of electricity per 100 kilometers, of which the effective electric energy is 12.2kwh. The conversion of electric energy from the power plant to the output of the battery pack consumes about 12%, that is, the total energy consumption at the source per 100 kilometers is about 17.05kwh. The energy utilization efficiency is 71.55%, and the non-energy cost is about 14 yuan.

　　Hydrogen energy solution (electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric energy)

　　The energy conversion process consumption of the hydrogen energy system includes: hydrogen production power consumption, hydrogen transportation cost, fuel cell cost, hydrogenation station cost, battery power generation loss and battery system self-weight energy consumption, etc.

　　(1) Power transmission loss. The average power grid loss is about 4%.

　　(2) Electricity consumption for hydrogen production. Under current technical conditions, hydrogen production through electrolysis of water is about 0.019kg per kilowatt-hour of electricity.

　　(3) Fuel cell manufacturing cost. The manufacturing cost of hydrogen fuel cell systems from advanced international manufacturers is about 200,000 yuan, and it is expected to drop to about 100,000 yuan after mass production in the future. In the future, the service life of hydrogen fuel cells is expected to reach 10,000 hours, and the total driving mileage during the life period is expected to be 400,000 kilometers. The shared cost per 100 kilometers is about 25 yuan.

　　(4) Hydrogen refueling station cost. The current construction cost of a hydrogenation station with an average daily hydrogenation capacity of 500kg is about 20 million, mainly composed of equipment costs. It is expected that after mass production in the future, the construction cost can be reduced to 10 million yuan. If the hydrogenation station operates 360 days per year, has a utilization rate of 40%, and depreciates over 10 years, the construction cost will be apportioned to approximately 13.89 yuan/kg.

　　(5) Battery power generation loss. According to statistics, Toyota Mirai consumes 0.76kg of hydrogen per 100 kilometers.

　　(6) The fuel cell stack consumes energy due to its own weight. The weight of the fuel cell stack is about half that of the lithium battery, and the corresponding energy consumption in terms of electrical energy is 1.4wh.

　　In summary, it can be seen that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles consume a total of 40kwh of electric energy per 100 kilometers at the terminal and 41.67kwh at the source of the power system.

　　Regardless of the efficiency difference between the hydrogen fuel cell engine and the lithium battery engine, and assuming that there is no difference between the two vehicles except the power system, the effective energy consumption per 100 kilometers of the fuel cell vehicle is also 12.2kwh. The energy utilization efficiency of the hydrogen fuel cell is only 29.28%, accompanied by a non-energy cost of 35.55 yuan.

　　Therefore, the "Electricity → Hydrogen → Mobile Electricity" solution is at a clear disadvantage in terms of energy utilization efficiency, which means that the technical route of producing hydrogen through electrolysis of water (Route 3, Route 5) is unlikely to be used on a large scale in the field of new energy vehicles in the future. Promote the application!

　　Overall evaluation of each technical route

　　Technical route 1 (fossil fuel → electricity → mobile electric energy)

　　my country's fossil fuels are mainly coal, with coal power generation accounting for 64.67% of the total electricity and natural gas power generation accounting for 6.33%. Moreover, my country is highly dependent on natural gas imports and is unlikely to become the energy basis for new energy vehicles in the future. Therefore, the following analysis of fossil fuels uses coal as a representative.

　　Calculated based on the ultra-high voltage power plant with the highest power generation efficiency, its standard coal consumption is 360g/kw·h, and standard coal contains thermal energy of 29.3'106 Joules/kg. Therefore, the chemical energy utilization efficiency of coal-fired power generation is 34.13%, and the power generation cost (excluding coal consumption) is approximately 0.14 yuan/kwh. Combined with the previous analysis of the "Electricity → Mobile Electric Energy" link, it can be concluded that this technical route consumes 6.14kg of standard coal per 100 kilometers, the overall energy utilization efficiency is 24.41%, and the non-energy cost is approximately 16.4 yuan.

　　Technology route 2 (fossil fuel → hydrogen → mobile electric energy)

　　With the current process, coal gasification hydrogen production requires about 9kg of standard coal to produce 1kg of hydrogen, and the non-energy cost is about 5.6 yuan. Combined with the previous analysis of the "Hydrogen→Mobile Electric Energy" link, it can be concluded that the hydrogen vehicle using this technical route consumes 6.84kg of standard coal for every 100km traveled, the overall energy utilization efficiency is 21.91%, and the non-energy cost is approximately 39.81 yuan.

　　Technology route 3 (fossil fuels → electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric energy)

　　This technical route consumes about 15kg of standard coal per 100 kilometers, the overall energy utilization efficiency is 9.99%, and the non-energy cost is 41.38 yuan.

　　Analysis conclusion

　　From the analysis of the current mainstream technical routes, it can be seen that the hydrogen energy automobile industry faces the following difficulties:

　　1. Under current technical conditions, the hydrogen energy route does not have any advantages over the lithium battery route.

　　2. From the perspective of social energy utilization efficiency, the technical route based on electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen cannot become the foundation of the future hydrogen vehicle industry due to its low efficiency.

　　3. The only route that can compete with the lithium battery route in terms of energy efficiency is route 2, which uses fossil fuels to directly produce hydrogen. However, the sulfide impurities in the hydrogen produced by this method can easily lead to poisoning of the fuel cell catalyst, which is currently unavailable in China. Effective detection.

　　4. Compared with the lithium battery route, the hydrogen energy route requires re-construction of infrastructure, resulting in a significant increase in non-energy costs.

　　If we cannot make further technological breakthroughs and improve energy efficiency, the hydrogen automobile industry will be a rootless tree! However, the hydrogen energy industry is just in its infancy, and there are still endless possibilities in the future.

　　From the perspective of energy efficiency, the hydrogen production process and fuel cell power generation efficiency are likely to be further improved. In terms of non-energy costs, the cost of fuel cells and hydrogen refueling stations will drop significantly with the large-scale development of the industry in the future.

　　Whether the hydrogen energy route can achieve a technological breakthrough and replace the lithium battery route and become the dominant new energy vehicle in the future still needs time to test!

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