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　　Hydrogen energy series special topics: core technologies are gradually conquered and fuel cells are about to be launched.

　　1. With continued policy support, the first year of fuel cell commercialization is coming

　　At present, the gap between domestic basic research on fuel cells and overseas is narrowing. Most components have been produced domestically. The first year of commercial application of vehicle fuel cell systems is approaching, and it is time to explore investment opportunities in the industrial chain.

　　1.1. Fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries complement each other and jointly create green transportation

　　Since the beginning of the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the power lithium battery route or the fuel cell route has been controversial. And we clearly stated in the report "CATL: A Major Power Changing the Global RMB 10 Trillion Automobile Supply Chain Pattern" that we believe that the relationship between lithium batteries and fuel cells in the future will not be a substitute, but a complementary relationship. Fuel cells It is more suitable for extended range use of large vehicles that run long distances. Academician Ouyang Minggao, the leading figure in new energy vehicles in my country, also clearly stated at the 100-person meeting on electric vehicles in June 2018 that lithium-ion battery systems are more suitable to replace gasoline engines, and hydrogen fuel cell systems are more suitable to replace diesel engines.

　　The sales base of fuel cell vehicles is low, but the potential is promising. Domestic fuel cells In contrast, the commercialization process of domestic automotive lithium-ion batteries has led the world, and automotive fuel cell technology is also constantly catching up. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales of fuel cell vehicles in my country in 2018 reached 1,527 units, all of which were commercial vehicles, while the total sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.256 million units, which means that the proportion of new energy vehicles in fuel cell vehicles was only 0.12%. Even if fuel cells only replace traditional commercial vehicles in China, the space is still considerable. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's commercial vehicle sales reached 4.371 million units in 2018, which means the penetration rate of fuel cell commercial vehicles was only 0.03%.

　　1.2. All-round policy support and subsidies have not declined

　　my country has a long history of policy support for fuel cell development. "Made in my country 2025" announced by the State Council in May 2015 emphasized the need to vigorously promote breakthrough development in key areas. Fuel cell vehicles are one of the seven major areas. It will continue to support the development of electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, and clearly requires that by 2020 Produce about 1,000 fuel cell vehicles and conduct demonstration operations. With the support of multiple domestic policies, various R&D institutions and companies are actively increasing research and development of fuel cells.

　　Source: National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Transport, my country Securities Journal, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　According to the new energy vehicle subsidy policy announced by various ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance, compared with the decline of electric vehicle subsidies year by year, fuel cell vehicle subsidies have remained unchanged, and the ratio of national subsidies to local subsidies is as high as 1:1.

　　Table 2 National subsidies for fuel cell vehicles

　　Source: Ministry of Finance, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　2. The domestic fuel cell vehicle industry chain is increasingly improving

　　Proton exchange membrane fuel cells are the most widely used. According to the type of electrolyte, fuel cells can be mainly divided into proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), phosphate fuel cells (PAFC), molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC), solid oxide fuel cells ( SOFC). Proton exchange membrane fuel cells benefit from low operating temperatures, small size, modular power generation units, and high reliability. Therefore, they are easy to assemble and maintain. They are currently the most widely researched and used. According to statistics from TheFuelCellIndustryReview, proton exchange membrane battery shipments have far exceeded other types of fuel cells from 2014 to 2017, and shipments are expected to account for 57% in 2018. At present, automotive fuel cells basically follow the proton exchange membrane route, so the discussion of the fuel cell industry chain in this article also focuses on proton exchange membrane batteries.

　　Table 3 Global fuel cell shipments by type from 2014 to 2018 (thousand units)

　　Source: TheFuelCellIndustryReview2018, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　Table 4 Global fuel cell shipments by type from 2014 to 2018 (MW)

　　Source: TheFuelCellIndustryReview2018, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　The fuel cell system industry chain is more complex than that of lithium batteries. On the one hand, infrastructure construction is more complex: in addition to the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the source of hydrogen also needs to be considered. On the other hand, fuel cells are essentially different from lithium batteries. One is a power generation device and the other is an energy storage device. Fuel cells In addition to the reactor stack, more auxiliary components are needed to work together.

　　Important components of the fuel cell system include: stack, air compressor, humidifier, hydrogen circulation pump, high-pressure hydrogen bottle, etc. Fuel cell monomers are connected in series to form a stack. The stack is the site of chemical reactions and is the core of the fuel cell. However, if you want to use fuel cells to drive loads and obtain competitive power, you must not only rely on an excellent air supply system, but also integrate the vehicle control system, auxiliary power system, and drive motor and control system.

　　Data source: Compiled by Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　2.1. Core components of fuel cell unit

　　Similar to lithium-ion batteries, fuel cell cells are stacked to form a stack, and then DC/DC boost is used to drive the motor. The battery cell is mainly composed of membrane electrodes and bipolar plates. The membrane electrode is the core of the fuel cell and is mainly composed of a catalyst, a gas diffusion layer (carbon paper), and a proton exchange membrane.

　　Catalyst: A commonly used commercial catalyst is Pt/C. Due to the high price of platinum, the catalyst is one of the most expensive components in the stack. At present, research at home and abroad is conducted to reduce the amount of platinum used through structural design and the use of alloy materials. Guiyan Platinum already has relatively mature technology in Pt/C preparation.

　　Carbon paper: Lithium-ion battery is processed into a gas-evacuated layer. There is still a gap between domestic research in the field of carbon fiber and overseas. At present, domestic and foreign companies mainly purchase Japanese Toray and Ballard.

　　Proton exchange membrane: Its core function is to conduct protons and isolate the two poles. At present, the mainstream use of perfluorinated materials is similar to the exchange membrane used in the chlor-alkali industry. The technical difficulty is relatively low. At present, China already has better preparation technology, and there is a large room for cost reduction. Foreign high-quality suppliers: DuPont, Gore, Dow, 3M, Asahi Kasei; domestic high-quality suppliers: Dongyue Group.

　　Bipolar plate: mainly used for the separation and conduction of hydrogen and oxygen, and for collecting current. At present, the mainstream routes include graphite plates, metal plates, and composite plates. Among them, graphite plates and metal plates are more common. Metal plates are easy to manufacture and small in size, but they have corrosion problems that affect the life of the stack.

　　2.2. Vehicle fuel cell system components

　　In addition to the stack, the vehicle fuel cell system also needs to be equipped with an air compressor, auxiliary power system (lithium battery or lead-acid battery), hydrogen storage bottle, hydrogen circulation pump, and motor drive and control system.

　　Air compressor: used to control the air inlet pressure and speed at the air inlet end. It has stricter requirements on pressure fluctuations than traditional air compressors. At present, the price of air compressors is relatively high, and there is a lot of room for cost reduction. The two main technical routes are centrifugal and twin-screw. Domestic companies involved in the air compressor segment mainly include Snowman Co., Ltd. and Guangshun New Energy.

　　Auxiliary power system: Generally speaking, fuel cell vehicles are also equipped with energy storage batteries for auxiliary work, including auxiliary stack work during starting, acceleration, and braking.

　　Hydrogen storage bottle: mainly carbon fiber bottle. The technical difficulty of hydrogen storage bottles is relatively low. There are many domestic companies with the ability to manufacture hydrogen storage bottles, including: Sinoma Technology, Furui Special Equipment, etc.

　　Hydrogen circulation pump: It is mainly used to improve the efficiency of hydrogen use during the stack reaction and ensure the stack pressure to extend the service life of the entire fuel cell system. At present, there is a lack of representative companies in this field in China.

　　Table 5 Representative domestic fuel cell system companies

　　Source: Wind, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute

　　In summary, in the entire fuel cell system, most of the core components have been mastered in my country and have the ability to mass-produce them. The commercial foundation of fuel cell vehicles has taken shape.

　　3. my country’s market + my country’s manufacturing, hydrogen fuel cells have great potential

　　The domestic automotive fuel cell system industry chain is initially complete, policy support continues unabated, and the first year of commercialization is approaching. After a long period of research and development and accumulation, my country already has first-class manufacturing companies in the fields of proton exchange membranes, catalysts, bipolar plates, vehicle fuel cell control systems, hydrogen storage bottles, etc., and other key parts and components are also initially ready for mass production. strength. Coupled with the strong support from policies, more and more companies in the fuel cell industry chain have the ability to compete with the world's first-tier fuel cell companies.

　　The current base of fuel cell vehicles is low, while the commercial vehicle operating model is becoming increasingly mature and has high growth potential. The potential of my country's automobile market is obvious to all, and well-known overseas fuel cell companies are also actively seeking opportunities to cooperate with domestic companies to expand my country's market. According to the official website of Ballard (BLDP.O), as early as July 2016, Ballard signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the domestic company Guangdong Guohong to supply fuel cells for domestic commercial vehicles. In August 2018, Ballard once again disclosed its cooperation with Weichai on its official website. We expect that the cooperation between Ballard and Weichai will accelerate the replacement of diesel engines by fuel cell systems in heavy trucks, ships and other fields. According to the my country Securities Journal, the Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles Plan to be implemented in 2019 will accelerate the maturity of the fuel cell commercial vehicle operating model.

　　my country’s market + my country’s manufacturing, the space for fuel cell cost reduction is beyond imagination. As the overall industry shipment volume is still low, the overall manufacturing cost, equipment depreciation and R&D expenses are high, resulting in the high selling price of fuel cell systems. We believe that with the opening of my country's market and the improvement of domestic companies' mass production capabilities, the cost of vehicle fuel cell systems will soon experience the same rapid cost decline as power lithium batteries in the past five years. According to DOE estimates of lithium-ion batteries, when fuel cell production can reach 1,000 units per year, the cost of the fuel cell system can be reduced to US$180/kW.

　　In terms of target selection, 1) give priority to companies that master core technologies and have mass production capabilities; 2) focus on my country’s currently relatively mature fuel cell system; 3) fuel cell infrastructure construction may be ahead of vehicle sales, and it is recommended to pay attention Hydrogen production link. It is recommended to pay attention to the following targets: Xiongtao Co., Ltd. (stacks, membrane electrodes, systems), Snowman Co., Ltd. (Juda lithium-ion air compressor, equity participation in Hydrogenics), Furui Special Equipment (hydrogen production), Guiyan Platinum Industry (catalyst), Meijin Energy (membrane electrodes, complete vehicles), Weichai Power (shareholding in Ballard).

　　Dongguan Juda Electronics Co., Ltd. was established in 2002 and is headquartered in Goldman Sachs Technology Park, Nancheng District, Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, my country. It is a company that provides special needs for global users in mobile power supplies, energy storage power supplies, power supplies and backup power supplies. A national high-tech company specializing in customized solutions and products for lithium battery systems.

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