AAA NiMH batteries

　　Global AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode material market status and technology development trend

　　my country regards the development of new energy vehicles as an important development strategy for the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. Lithium batteries are one of the core components of new energy vehicles. AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials have a huge impact on their safety, cycle life and other performance, and are crucial to the rapid rise of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new energy vehicles.

　　1. Global AAA NiMH batteries market status

　　Compared with traditional secondary batteries such as lead-acid and nickel-hydrogen batteries, lithium batteries are lighter, have a longer cycle life and higher energy density. Therefore, lithium batteries were first used in portable digital fields such as mobile phones, notebooks, and tablets. In recent years, they have been extended to emerging industries such as smart wearables, drones, power tools, new energy vehicles, and energy storage.

　　With the continuous expansion of application areas and the continuous increase in market demand, the global AAA NiMH batteries industry has maintained a compound growth rate of more than 20% in the past 10 years, and the shipment of lithium batteries reached 143.5GWh in 2017. In 2017, lithium batteries for digital products accounted for 52% of the global AAA NiMH batteries market, automotive batteries accounted for 40%, and energy storage accounted for 8%. In 2017, power lithium batteries grew by more than 37% year-on-year. It is expected that after 2018, power lithium batteries will become the largest application market, accounting for more than 50%, becoming the biggest highlight of the market.

　　1. The rapid development of new energy vehicles is the main driving force for the development of lithium batteries

　　In 2017, global new energy vehicle sales were about 1.4 million, and China's new energy vehicle sales were about 777,000, accounting for more than 50%. In the first six months of 2018, China's new energy vehicle production/sales were 413,000 and 412,000 respectively, an increase of 94.9% and 111.5% over the same period in 2017, and it is expected that the annual target of 1 million vehicles can be achieved. In 2018, the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 1.8 million, and the Chinese market will account for 55%. It is expected that by 2020, global new energy vehicle sales will reach 3.5 million, and China will become the world's largest new energy vehicle production base and sales market.

　　In order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, relevant ministries and governments at all levels have introduced a series of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, providing all-round support from complete vehicles, batteries, charging piles, etc., and requiring manufacturers to provide mandatory supply. Since 2016, the Chinese government has gradually weakened the encouragement of demand and strengthened the mandatory supply side, using a combination of long-term and short-term policies to rectify the industry chain in order to support the best and suppress the worst. In the context of the continuous decline of direct government subsidies, the process of the dual-credit policy is actively promoted.

　　According to the "Parallel Management Measures for the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", no matter how many fuel vehicles each car company produces, it must produce new energy models in a certain proportion. Although the dual-credit policy was only implemented in April 2018 and the new energy credit ratio was not set until 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology still issued the "Notice on the Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises in 2016-2017", which put forward clear compensation requirements for 2016-2017. If the fuel consumption assessment of an enterprise shows negative points, it can refer to the transfer between related enterprises stipulated in the dual-credit policy, purchase positive points of new energy vehicles, etc., and offset them to zero during the annual credit assessment. It can be seen that new energy credits have begun to play a role. The transition from direct subsidies to dual-credit policies marks the transition of the Chinese government's attitude towards new energy vehicles from "encouragement" to "compulsion", and the support has increased instead of decreased. Since the current dual-credit policy only targets the passenger car field, the subsequent development of passenger cars with a higher degree of marketization will be more rapid. Since China is the main production and sales market for new energy vehicles, Chinese AAA NiMH batteries and positive electrode material manufacturers have dual geographical advantages and have obtained unprecedented development opportunities.

　　2. Small consumer electronic lithium batteries enter the mature stage

　　The demand for lithium batteries in the electronic consumer market is becoming more stable in the replacement of smartphones, tablets, etc. According to IDC data, global smartphone shipments in 2017 were 1.465 billion units (Figure 3), down 0.3% year-on-year. The downward trend is expected to continue in 2018, with annual shipments of about 1.462 billion units, down 0.2% year-on-year. In 2017, global notebook and tablet shipments were 328 million units, down 2.3% year-on-year. It is expected to shrink further in 2018, with global shipments estimated to be about 311 million units, down 5.3% year-on-year.

　　In contrast to digital consumer electronics, the shipments of small handheld power tools have increased significantly due to the increasing popularity of garden and household power tools. The power tool market is generally distributed in developed countries in Europe, America and Japan. The world's largest power tool manufacturers are mainly Stenley Black & Decker in the United States, Robert Bosch GmbH, Hilti GmbH, Metabo in Europe, Makita Co., Ltd., Hitachi Koki Industrial Machinery Co., Ltd., Panasonic Industrial Co., Ltd. and TTI Group in Japan. Battery suppliers are mainly domestic and foreign AAA NiMH batteries giants such as Sony, SDI, Panasonic, etc. Power tool manufacturers and their battery suppliers are very concentrated. Customers in this field pay more attention to product performance rather than price; in order to ensure technological advancement, manufacturers have invested a lot of energy in product research and development, and this market has achieved a healthy and virtuous cycle.

　　Due to the continuous expansion of emerging markets such as model aircraft, drones, toys, and smart wearables, the sales of high-rate lithium batteries have also achieved rapid growth. Due to the increasing functions of small consumer electronic products, the continuous expansion of the power tool market, and the continuous emergence of emerging rate markets, the demand for positive electrode materials for small lithium batteries is still increasing steadily and at a low speed.

　　3. Energy storage lithium batteries are about to enter the start-up period, with a small base, but shipments are growing rapidly

　　From the perspective of application areas, among the three major energy storage areas, namely large-scale wind and solar energy storage, backup power supply for communication base stations, and household energy storage, the backup power supply for communication base stations currently accounts for a large proportion. With the "energy family" wave set off by Tesla, household energy storage has a large space for further development and expansion. Large-scale wind and solar energy storage will develop slowly in the short term. At present, due to factors such as energy storage policies, AAA NiMH batteries prices, and electricity, the scale of AAA NiMH batteries applications is still relatively small.

　　2. Current status of the AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode material market

　　The global lithium-ion battery market has maintained rapid growth in the past five years due to the continuous expansion of application areas, and the market is in a growth stage. The use of positive electrode materials has also continued to increase, with an annual growth rate of more than 25%. It is estimated that the global shipment of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials will be about 360,000 tons in 2018, including 70,000 tons of lithium cobalt oxide and 220,000 tons of multi-materials (Figure 4).

　　From the perspective of market trends, the main growth point of shipments in recent years is in the new energy vehicle industry, among which the mainstream positive electrode material of power AAA NiMH batteries has changed from lithium iron phosphate to lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM) and lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA). As small digital lithium batteries remain stable, the use of lithium cobalt oxide remains stable. The energy storage market is in the early stage of development, with a small base, and the growth is mainly based on international energy storage applications. This type of energy storage battery mainly uses a multi-system, so the growth of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious. The production of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials is divided into three parts by China, Japan and South Korea, and Chinese positive electrode material suppliers occupy half of the market. However, the output of Japanese and Korean positive electrode material companies is mainly concentrated in two or three material giants, while the strength of Chinese material companies is relatively balanced, mainly medium-sized enterprises. However, in the past two or three years, the reshuffle of Chinese material companies has also intensified, and the output is more concentrated in the top few material companies. In 2017, there were about 10 material companies with an output of more than 10,000 tons, and except for 2 in Japan and South Korea, the rest were Chinese companies.

　　As the pursuit of cost by Japanese and Korean AAA NiMH batteries giants is becoming increasingly stringent, they have begun to select those with excellent cost performance among Chinese positive electrode material suppliers. The Chinese government has also taken an active supportive attitude towards the export of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials, granting 13% export tax rebate to lithium cobalt oxide and multi-materials. Therefore, the positive electrode materials exported from China to Japan and South Korea are mainly lithium cobalt oxide and multi-materials. Since 2005, the export volume of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials has continued to rise.

　　Directly stimulated by China's demand for power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles, domestic and foreign positive electrode material companies are scrambling to release new capacity expansion plans. Among the international large manufacturers, Umicore is more aggressive in expanding production overseas, and has built a new 200,000 t positive electrode material production line in Jiangmen, Guangdong. Sumitomo Metal Mining also has a corresponding matching expansion plan due to the hot sales of Tesla. The strength of domestic large manufacturers is relatively average, but the pace of capacity expansion is more active. Major manufacturers such as BYD, Bamo, Dangsheng Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten Industry have announced active expansion plans, and these capacities are mainly concentrated in 2021-2025.

　　The capacity expansion plan that far exceeds demand will intensify the industry reshuffle, and material manufacturers without technical advantages and market channels will have to withdraw from the competition in the power AAA NiMH batteries market.

　　3. Global AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode material technology development trend

　　The first AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode material used in portable digital lithium batteries is lithium cobalt oxide, which has high energy density but poor safety. Due to the large proportion of strategic minor metal cobalt, the cost is also relatively high, so it is not suitable for automotive power lithium batteries. The first positive electrode materials used in automotive power batteries are lithium manganese oxide and lithium iron phosphate. Lithium manganese oxide has good safety, but poor storage performance and low energy density, so it is mainly used in buses or mixed with multi-materials. Lithium iron phosphate has relatively excellent safety and cycle performance, but low energy density and poor low-temperature performance, which is greatly restricted in the application of commercial passenger cars.

　　Compared with other positive electrode materials, multi-materials have more balanced performance, with higher gram-to-gram capacity and excellent cycle performance, but multi-materials have poor safety from the intrinsic material. Multi-material nickel can adjust the ratio of three elements of nickel, cobalt, manganese (aluminum), and strengthen different performance requirements according to the actual application field of lithium batteries. It is very flexible. Multi-materials are recognized by many AAA NiMH batteries and material experts as the main positive electrode materials for automotive power lithium-ion batteries in the future.

　　1. The positive electrode materials of power lithium batteries are concentrated on multi-materials, and are developing towards single crystal and high nickel.

　　Energy density, cost, and cycle life are the main evaluation indicators of international power batteries. From the perspective of replacing fuel vehicles, the problem of mileage anxiety cannot be avoided. Therefore, how to improve energy density and speed up charging speed is the biggest problem of automotive power lithium batteries at present.

　　The ratio of nickel (Ni), cobalt, and manganese elements in multi-materials can be adjusted, and as the nickel content increases, the material gram capacity increases, and the energy density of the battery continues to increase. At the same time, due to the high cost of cobalt raw materials and the large fluctuation amplitude of cobalt prices, the cost of multi-materials with high cobalt and low nickel remains high. In order to reduce costs and seek materials with higher energy density, AAA NiMH batteries companies tend to use NCM622, NCM811 and NCA with relatively high Ni content.

　　The operating voltage of conventional multi-material batteries is 4.2V. Power lithium batteries and positive electrode material companies hope to increase the operating voltage to 4.35~4.4V to increase battery energy density. Under high working voltage conditions, the multi-materials of AAA NiMH batteries that have not been optimized will become unstable after multiple cycles. The primary particle interface of the material can be found to be powdered or separated under an electron microscope. Therefore, the internal resistance of the AAA NiMH batteries increases, the capacity decays rapidly, and the cycle curve dives. High-end AAA NiMH batteries multi-materials use a combination of doping and diversified coating processes to reduce the side reactions between the material and the electrolyte, ensuring that the secondary particle multi-material structure can also exist stably under high voltage without structural collapse. In addition, material manufacturers have developed another single crystal high-voltage multi-material, which has a good layered structure, thereby improving the material's cycle performance under high voltage. At an operating voltage of 3 to 4.4V, the lithium ion transfer efficiency can be improved, and the discharge specific capacity of the multi-material can be increased by more than 15%.

　　2. Small AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials are developing towards high voltage and low cobalt

　　The small digital market focuses on AAA NiMH batteries energy density and safety. After the working voltage of high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide continued to increase to 4.45V, high-voltage multi-materials have also become the main research direction for the development of digital AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials. The traditional solution to improve energy density is mainly achieved by increasing the working voltage of lithium cobalt oxide batteries; the charging voltage of lithium cobalt oxide has risen from 4.2V to 4.5V. The industrialization of 4.5V high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide is a milestone in the development of lithium cobalt oxide technology. The working voltage and capacity of 4.5V@185mAh/g lithium cobalt oxide are close to the limit. The modification principle of 4.35V high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide is mainly doping modification; while 4.5V high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide breaks through the traditional technical solution of coating and doping in the pyrometallurgical stage, and begins to dope from the bulk phase and combine with surface coating. Such a solution makes the modified lithium cobalt oxide more stable in structure and longer in cycle life under high voltage system.

　　In the past two years, the price of cobalt has gone through a sharp rise and fall, with an amplitude of up to 200%. Lithium cobalt oxide, which contains 60% of cobalt by mass, has endured a huge cost test. AAA NiMH batteries manufacturers have sought low-cobalt and cobalt-free low-cost cathode material solutions. Some areas where lithium cobalt oxide can be directly replaced by multi-materials, such as notebook cylindrical lithium batteries, have basically been replaced by multi-materials. In some smartphone and tablet soft-pack battery projects, AAA NiMH batteries manufacturers have begun to gradually adopt the method of mixing lithium cobalt oxide with multiple materials in products below 4.40V to achieve the purpose of reducing costs. It can be imagined that the technology of replacing lithium cobalt oxide with multiple materials is becoming more and more mature, and the application of multiple materials will be more extensive, and this low-cost replacement will be irreversible.

　　3. Energy storage AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode material

　　The lead-acid batteries currently used in large quantities in energy storage batteries around the world have an energy density of 50-60Wh/kg. Compared with these batteries, lithium batteries can reach 100Wh/kg in energy density, so the cycle life and cost of lithium batteries are the key to whether lithium batteries can replace lead-acid batteries. Lithium iron phosphate has a lower density than other lithium-ion batteries, but it has low cost, high safety, and long battery life. From the perspective of cycle life and future cost reduction space, lithium iron phosphate is a relatively potential energy storage battery positive electrode material.

　　Lithium manganese oxide and multiple materials are mainly used in UPS mobile power supplies and special energy storage and home energy storage fields that require battery energy density. For example, Tesla's energy storage wall (PowerWall) uses a multiple material system.

　　4. Outlook of the AAA NiMH batteries cathode material market

　　Under the strong call for low-carbon and environmental protection around the world, Norway, the Netherlands, India, France, the United Kingdom and other countries have issued timetables for banning the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. Germany is the world's most powerful fuel vehicle producer, and their cabinet has also proposed to ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2030. Although my country has not issued a specific timetable for banning the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, it has already started research on the timetable for banning the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. After implementing the dual-point policy for automobile sales, my country has set goals for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. By 2025, the sales of these vehicles will account for at least 20% of its automobile sales. It can be imagined that the trend of global automobile electrification is very clear, and the timetable is notThe global major automobile brands have also responded to the timetable for the ban on fuel vehicles. In 2015, Toyota Motor of Japan announced that it would stop selling fuel vehicles by 2050. The new energy vehicles they launched include hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Toyota expects to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of new vehicles by 90% by 2050 to meet environmental protection goals. Mercedes-Benz expects to electrify all its automobile products in 2022 and stop production and sales of traditional fuel vehicles. Volvo announced that all new models launched after 2019 will be equipped with electric motors. Changan Automobile will fully realize pure electrification in 2025 and will officially stop selling fuel vehicles at that time; BAIC will stop production and sales of traditional fuel passenger cars in China in 2025. BYD gasoline vehicles are expected to withdraw from the Chinese market in 2030; Geely Automobile plans to have new energy vehicle sales account for 90% of Geely's overall vehicle sales in 2020. With such a clear demand for new energy vehicles, the market demand for lithium batteries and cathode materials is expected to continue to develop rapidly. It is estimated that the global shipment of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials in 2018 will be about 360,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. By 2020, the global demand for AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials is expected to grow rapidly to 530,000 tons, of which 370,000 tons will be multi-materials, of which more than 1/3 will be high-nickel multi-materials.

　　Despite the support of clear market demand, the prices of cobalt and lithium raw materials are restricted by foreign mining giants, which has greatly constrained the development of China's multi-materials. China has relatively small cobalt reserves, accounting for about 1.7% of the world's total, but it is a major cobalt producer and needs to import a large amount of cobalt raw materials, but it still has not mastered the pricing power of international cobalt prices. In recent years, the prices of lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, the main raw materials of AAA NiMH batteries positive electrode materials, have also fluctuated greatly. This is mainly because the global lithium resource concentration is high, and the ownership of salt lake mining technology and spodumene mines has gradually been transferred to a few lithium carbonate giants. Therefore, the pricing power is also mainly in the hands of several South American lithium carbonate giants.

　　It is expected that due to the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, multi-materials are irreplaceable in the short term, and the demand for cobalt and lithium resources will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. How my country can avoid the dilemma of resources being out of the country, how to accelerate the reserve and development of cobalt and lithium resources, and formulate relevant recycling policies are one of the most important issues to ensure the stable development of my country's new energy vehicles.

　　In short, new energy vehicles have brought vigorous development to the AAA NiMH batteries and cathode material market. China has brought unprecedented opportunities to China's AAA NiMH batteries industry chain due to its dual geographical advantages of both production and sales. Due to the pursuit of endurance, the energy density requirements of power lithium batteries are constantly increasing, and multi-materials have become the mainstream development trend of AAA NiMH batteries technology at home and abroad. Based on the dual considerations of cost and energy density, the trend of high nickel and single crystal multi-materials is becoming increasingly obvious. In summary, although the growth in demand for lithium batteries and multi-materials in my country has been strongly supported by the market, the shortage of cobalt and lithium resources will become a hidden worry for China's industrial chain, and it is necessary to make industrial layout in advance.

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