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　　Overcapacity of new energy vehicles is beginning to appear, and core technologies still need to be broken through

　　In recent years, my country's new energy vehicle market has risen rapidly. As the advantages in environmental protection, economy, convenience and other aspects become increasingly prominent, the number of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly. Independent brands have seized the rare opportunity and regard vigorous development of new energy vehicles as an important way to overtake traditional European and American car companies in corners. However, a recent investigation by reporters found that my country has been prospering in the promotion of new energy vehicles in recent years, but car companies have exposed deficiencies such as subsidy dependence, initial overcapacity, and lack of core technologies in their development. Especially after well-known international traditional car companies develop new energy vehicles, the technological gap has become further highlighted. It is worth pondering where my country's new energy vehicle manufacturing should go next.

　　New energy vehicle manufacturing creates first-mover advantage

　　According to the latest data released by the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, automobile production and sales showed a certain decline month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was more obvious, continuing the downward trend since July. But at the same time, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have become a highlight of the industry. Data show that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first 10 months of this year were 879,000 and 860,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 70% and 75.6%, respectively, showing the rapid development of new energy vehicles in my country.

　　After years of continuous efforts, my country's new energy vehicle industry has transitioned from the cultivation stage to the growth stage, forming a certain first-mover advantage worldwide. At the my country Automobile Industry Development (TEDA) International Forum held in Tianjin Development Zone not long ago, Qu Guochun, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that in the past five years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country have averaged a compound annual growth rate of nearly 130%.

　　After sorting out, it can be found that my country's achievements in new energy vehicle manufacturing are quite fruitful. First, it has established a relatively complete policy system to support industrial development and cultivated a world-leading market scale. Various departments have launched more than 40 policies and measures to support the development of new energy vehicles, covering all aspects of research and development, production, and promotion. my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles have ranked first in the world for three consecutive years.

　　A relatively complete industrial system has also been formed, and the company's innovation capabilities have been significantly improved. It has covered the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as key materials, power lithium batteries, motors, electronic controls, and complete vehicle development of lithium-ion battery manufacturers, forming a new energy vehicle industry system with a complete structure, independent controllability. Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that through a series of policy support measures such as subsidies for consumers to purchase new energy vehicles and operating subsidies for new energy buses, the significant development of the industry has been promoted. From a global perspective, my country's new energy vehicles have The policy system should be the most comprehensive.

　　At the same time, the supporting environment continues to be optimized, and the construction of charging networks is steadily advanced. At present, the coverage of charging piles in important places such as public places, residential areas, units, and highways has increased significantly. As of July this year, a total of 275,000 public charging piles have been built across the country, a year-on-year increase of 52%. The private installation rate of new users is close to 80%. Special license plates for new energy vehicles have been promoted nationwide.

　　The spillover effect of the new energy automobile industry is more obvious, attracting capital, talents, and technology to accelerate the concentration, and driving industrial investment and employment. In 2017, the investment in the new energy lithium-ion battery automobile industry chain exceeded 700 billion yuan, accounting for more than 50% of the new investment in the entire automobile industry.

　　Electric vehicles are entering a stage of rapid development. Feng Xingya, general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Co., Ltd., believes that the electric vehicle layout of my country's brand car companies has basically been completed, and a large number of new car-making forces of Internet companies and new energy vehicles of joint ventures have also entered the fast lane of development. As technology becomes increasingly mature, cruising range and user experience have also steadily improved.

　　He revealed that from January to July this year, GAC Group’s sales of new energy vehicles of its own brand reached 9,400 units. With the launch of Trumpchi GE3, which has a comprehensive operating range of more than 410 kilometers, the company's sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 20,000 units this year. Starting next year, GAC will intensively launch a series of pure electric vehicles at the rate of one new product every six months. It is expected that by 2020, new energy vehicle products will account for 10% of the group's total sales.

　　Faced with the rapid momentum of the new energy automobile industry, the petrochemical industry is not far behind. Huang Wensheng, vice president of my country Petrochemical Corporation, said that my country Petrochemical Corporation will take advantage of its existing network of 30,000 gas stations to create a comprehensive service system and a smart service system that can freely combine oil, gas, electricity and hydrogen. Moreover, my country Petrochemical will also study the feasibility of laying out the battery materials and hydrogen energy industry chain.

　　Stock accumulation ushered in a period of concentrated outbreak of problems

　　The achievements of my country's new energy automobile industry rely largely on first-mover advantages. In recent years, as the stock of new energy vehicles continues to accumulate, and at the same time, as well-known international traditional car companies wake up and start to make new energy vehicles, the challenges facing my country's industrial development have become more and more prominent.

　　The industry has rushed forward, exacerbating overcapacity. At the same time, subsidy fraud is common. The sudden rise of the domestic new energy automobile industry is inseparable from the effective support of fiscal and taxation policies. However, Song Qiuling said that with the support of subsidies, many companies are rushing to grab the market cake, especially the risk of overcapacity in vehicle and power lithium batteries. Some low-level companies have adopted low-quality and low-price competition to disrupt the market, which has affected our industry. overall level of development. She believes that the problems of insufficient high-end production capacity and overcapacity of low-end production coexist, and the industry is showing signs of blind expansion and overheating of investment.

　　Faced with the temptation of huge subsidies, some even take desperate risks and embark on the road of subsidy fraud. In September 2016, Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Automobile Co., Ltd. was exposed to have defrauded hundreds of millions of yuan in subsidies for new energy vehicles. Judging from the investigation, Wuzhoulong Company applied for motor vehicle driving licenses in advance before the products were completed, thus paving the way for defrauding subsidies.

　　According to industry insiders, car companies use various methods to defraud subsidies. Some first produce a batch of qualified new energy vehicles, sell them to their own leasing companies, and then recycle the batteries of the sold vehicles. By repeatedly installing the same battery on new car shells, continuous subsidy fraud is achieved. Judging from the thorough investigation of the industry, subsidy fraud is by no means just a few cases. At present, more than 10 car companies have been investigated and punished for their subsidy fraud.

　　The market mechanism is insufficient, and many car companies suffer from policy dependence, lack a strong willingness to develop independently, and are slow to connect with the market. Song Qiuling pointed out: We can see from the sales structure that most companies and products are stuck on the line with the lowest subsidies. This means that many car companies are unwilling to invest too much and are just trying to survive by getting subsidies.

　　There is a big gap between key technologies and internationally renowned traditional car companies. The "2018 Global Electric Vehicle Development Index" released by the international management consulting company Roland Berger pointed out that my country ranks first in the overall ranking of the electric vehicle development index, but this is mainly reflected in the market size, and at the technical level, my country's Vehicle manufacturing is still positioned in a low-tech field.

　　Many basic components such as electric drive high-speed bearings and control chips for new energy vehicles still rely on imports. Xu Zaoqian, deputy director of the Department of High-tech Development and Industrialization of the Ministry of Science and Technology, said frankly that the scientific research of fuel cell stacks between independent brand car companies is far behind that of foreign countries. There is also a certain technological lag in proton exchange membranes, high-pressure hydrogen storage bottles, carbon paper, various high-pressure precision valves, etc. Although there is a risk of overcapacity in the power lithium battery field, there is still a lack of original technological breakthroughs.

　　The risk of resource and environmental constraints has intensified. As the number of new energy vehicles surges, global competition for metal resources becomes increasingly fierce. my country is short of important power lithium battery resources such as metal lithium and cobalt, and the stable supply and price stability of resources are a great challenge.

　　At the same time, issues such as recycling of power lithium batteries and clean electricity consumption cannot be underestimated. Wu Feng, a professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, once publicly stated that a 20-gram mobile phone battery can pollute 1 square kilometer of land for about 50 years. It is conceivable that if several tons of electric vehicle power lithium batteries are discarded in the natural environment, it will cause greater pollution to the environment.

　　At present, most car companies promise consumers that the battery life and warranty will be within 10 years. However, with the booming sales of new energy vehicles in recent years, there will be a large demand for battery replacement in the near future, especially for battery packs that are used more frequently, such as taxis and buses, and the demand may be generated faster. According to predictions from the my country Automotive Technology Research Center, by 2020, the cumulative amount of scrapped power lithium batteries for electric vehicles in my country will reach 120,000 to 170,000 tons.

　　It is worth noting that foreign traditional car companies, which did not perform actively in the early stage, have begun to invest in the new energy vehicle industry, and their investment has become increasingly large.

　　Before this year’s Guangzhou Auto Show, Heizmann, President and CEO of Volkswagen Group (my country), stated that he plans to jointly invest more than 4 billion euros with partners in my country next year, and the funds will be used for electric vehicles, mobile travel services, efficient production processes and New product development and other automotive frontier fields.

　　In the next two years, Volkswagen Group will launch a large-scale new energy model product portfolio in my country. Its brands will launch more than 30 new energy models, 50% of which will be locally produced. By 2020, the group plans to deliver approximately 400,000 new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, and by 2025, the delivery volume will reach approximately 1.5 million vehicles. In the field of infrastructure, starting from 2019, the Volkswagen Group will work with partners to explore solutions for building a public high-power fast charging network in my country.

　　Not just Volkswagen, Honda’s electrification strategy has accelerated. As one of Honda's two joint ventures in China, Guangqi Honda announced the first pure electric SUV concept VE-1 and the first plug-in hybrid SUV Serui at the Guangzhou Auto Show, which means that Guangqi Honda is developing new energy sources. Substantial steps have been taken on the road. At the auto show, Honda also demonstrated its plug-in hybrid system. Yasuhide Mizuno, executive director of Honda Giken Industrial Co., Ltd. and head of my country, said that this is Honda's advanced system and hopes to be put into the Chinese market as soon as possible. In 2019, Honda will continue to accelerate the implementation of its electrification strategy and accelerate the launch of electrified models and technology introduction in the Chinese market. In addition to pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles, it will also launch plug-in hybrid models in the future. By 2025 , Honda will launch more than 20 electrified models in my country.

　　As a star brand in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla's production capacity is also steadily increasing to meet market supply and demand. In the third quarter of this year, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric vehicles, 50% higher than the second quarter, including 53,239 Model 3 electric vehicles, which are known for their high cost performance. According to the relevant person in charge of Tesla, taking into account shipping costs and import tariffs, Tesla's sales cost is about 55% to 60% higher than that of vehicles produced in my country. To solve this problem, Tesla is accelerating the construction of its Shanghai factory. After it is put into production, the price of Tesla's new energy vehicles in China is expected to be further reduced.

　　Adjust the direction of subsidies and continue to tackle technical difficulties

　　At present, my country's new energy vehicle manufacturing is still at a critical stage of going against the current or retreating. Challenges and opportunities always coexist, and companies need to enhance crisis awareness and improve market competitiveness.

　　First of all, we should continue to carry out technical research and not relax. Consumers' concerns and hopes for new energy vehicles focus on reliability, endurance, maintenance costs, intelligence, etc. The core of these issues is still technology in the final analysis. Experts put forward three major directions for the technological breakthrough of my country's new energy vehicles: first, to support the engineering and industrialization capabilities of core technologies; second, to form a complete industrial system and innovation system from key components to complete vehicles; third, to promote independent brands Energy-saving and new energy vehicles are in line with international advanced levels. These three major directions are undoubtedly what independent brand car companies must firmly grasp.

　　Demonstration operations of fuel cell vehicles will be gradually carried out in my country. Select areas where the government is motivated and the fuel cell industry has a good foundation to carry out promotion and application demonstrations. Xu Zaoqian said that the later period of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan will focus on the key core technologies of automotive hydrogen fuel cells, as well as the research and development of core technologies such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, and hydrogenation, and continue to strengthen advanced power lithium battery technology to enable new energy vehicles. The problem of short battery life has been alleviated.

　　It is imperative to adjust the subsidy policy and steadily raise the threshold, and we must resolutely crack down on subsidy fraud. Not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Announcement on the Planned Revocation of the List." This batch of lists includes 161 models from 58 companies, including 14 new energy passenger vehicles, and many mainstream independent brand car companies are on the list. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology explained the reasons for the withdrawal of these models. According to statistics, after the September 2017 catalog (twelfth batch) was announced, a total of 161 models had no production or import volume as of the end of September 2018, and were planned to be withdrawn from the catalog. This means that none of the 161 models were produced in the past year. The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is becoming increasingly perfect, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to exploit loopholes to defraud subsidies.

　　Electrification and intelligence are the general trend of the automobile industry. Song Qiuling revealed that in the next step, the central finance will follow the dynamic adjustment mechanism unified by the State Council. The subsidy policy still adheres to the orientation of supporting the excellent and the strong, continues to raise the technical threshold for subsidies, focuses on concentrating financial resources to support superior products and companies, and accelerates the reform of the supply side of the new energy automobile industry. We will cooperate with relevant departments to adhere to the guidance of fiscal funds to support the excellent and strong, and improve preferential fiscal and taxation policies. Xu Chaoqian also said that in the future, the focus will be on changing policies from encouraging purchases to encouraging consumption.

　　There should be zero tolerance for subsidy fraud by car companies. In addition to recovering the defrauded financial funds, a blacklist system must be established. Those suspected of criminal offenses will not be tolerated, so that the car companies that deceived them will pay the price and dare not go further.

　　It is also indispensable to pay attention to the prevention and control of safety risks in the subsequent use of new energy vehicles. With the rapid growth of vehicle ownership and the gradual aging of vehicle batteries, the safety risks of new energy vehicle products are gradually magnifying. Regarding consumer concerns, experts recommend accelerating the construction of the safety supervision system of the new energy vehicle industry, increasing supervision and inspection of products, and effectively improving product safety performance; improving the supervision system of the entire industry chain, strengthening random inspections of battery consistency, and forcing companies to Pay more attention to improving safety and improving vehicle quality.

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