CR2450 battery

The starting point of CR2450 battery, starting from the soft package

CR2450 battery are the future development direction of lithium batteries, and soft packaging is the deterministic packaging technology for CR2450 battery.

Throughchancesvarious,throughallvicissitudes,wemakeourway.

This is the quote on the title page of Graham's book "The Intelligent Investor", which comes from Virgil's unfinished ancient Roman epic "Aeneid".

"Once in a lifetime, we have gone through vicissitudes of life and kept moving forward."

After the fall of Troy, the exiled prince Aeneid led his people to wander around, trying to find a blessed land. After countless treks, when they were about to arrive, they encountered storms and temptations, and even walked through hell, but their faith was still like "the pampas grass is like silk, and the rock is unshakable." In the end, he got his wish and started the founding of the Roman Empire.

Smart investors should be like Aeneid, able to maintain prosperity and endure loneliness on the way to their faith goals.

Value investing pursues long-termism, and company management is even more so.

It is never easy to stay true to our original aspirations and persevere. External doubts, developments and changes, and self-doubt are all tests, and they may not necessarily be successful in the end.

But in this process, there is a prerequisite-whether the essence of things is explored. If you do this, you can hope to keep the clouds clear and see the moonlight.

The technological development of lithium batteries is a competition to see who can run longer and farther. Only by mastering the key techniques can you ride the wind and ride the waves.

Now, the game is entering its second half. CR2450 battery have attracted much attention and are expected to lead the next wave of lithium batteries. Soft-pack lithium batteries are undoubtedly the most suitable packaging technology.

The legendary "King of Soft Packaging" Funeng Technology (688567.SH) will usher in a moment of rapid growth.

Next stop, CR2450 battery

Speaking of CR2450 battery, readers may be a little unfamiliar with them. Strictly speaking, the current lithium battery should be called a liquid lithium battery, because one of its core battery materials is liquid electrolyte (also called electrolyte).

Then lithium batteries using solid electrolytes are called solid lithium batteries, or CR2450 battery for short. Obviously, the two structures are different.

Traditional lithium batteries consist of four major materials: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, and separator. The solid-state battery replaces the electrolyte and separator with a solid electrolyte, and the rest is similar.

When it comes to lithium batteries, safety comes first. However, the safety of traditional liquid lithium batteries has long been questioned by the market.

Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced the "Notice on National Automobile and Consumer Product Recalls in 2021". The report shows that 59 new energy vehicle recalls will be implemented in 2021, involving 830,000 vehicles, accounting for 9.5% of the total number of recalls throughout the year; new The number and quantity of energy vehicle recalls increased by 31.1% and 75.9% respectively compared with the previous year.

Among them, there were 3,033 new energy vehicle defect clue reports, reflecting problems with power lithium batteries, motors, and electronic control systems, accounting for 52.5% of new energy vehicle defect clues. "Power lithium battery overheating and catching fire" and "electronic control system failure" still account for a large proportion and are the primary safety hazards of new energy vehicles.

An important cause of fires in lithium batteries is the electrolyte. Under the current technical conditions, the electrolyte provides a place for lithium ions to "swim" in the battery.

However, the electrolyte is very sensitive to temperature. It is easily decomposed at high temperatures, highly corrosive, flammable and prone to leakage. Especially the lithium evolution reaction can easily cause short circuit.

Once a short circuit occurs, the local temperature rises significantly, reaching the ignition point of the liquid electrolyte inside the lithium battery, which can cause fire or even explosion.

Although various manufacturers have tried to add flame retardants or use high-temperature resistant films to solve safety problems, they have still not been successful. It can be said that fundamentally, liquid battery technology cannot eliminate safety risks.

In comparison, the most prominent advantage of CR2450 battery is safety. It uses an almost non-flammable solid electrolyte as the conductive medium, which reduces the temperature sensitivity of the battery pack, eliminates the new short circuit probability of lithium dendrites, and can also effectively isolate the positive and negative electrodes with good insulation.

In addition to the natural advantages of safety, another major attraction of CR2450 battery is performance.

For a long time, battery life and fast charging have been the Achilles heel of new energy vehicles, and range anxiety has been an embarrassing "normal". Therefore, new energy vehicles have been developing towards a high-endurance path: from 200 kilometers to 500 kilometers, and are about to enter the target range of 1,000 kilometers.

To achieve this goal, lithium batteries with higher energy density are needed. In the industry, energy density is usually calibrated in Wh/kg.

According to the "Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0" announced by the country in October 2020, the energy density of my country's pure electric vehicle power lithium batteries is targeted at 400Wh/kg in 2025 and 500Wh/kg in 2030.

This is very difficult for current liquid lithium battery technology.

In the field of liquid batteries, ternary soft pack is the technology with the highest energy density. According to the "Voluntary Disclosure of New Technology Research and Development Progress Notice" in April 2021, Funeng Technology successfully developed a new generation of power lithium batteries with an energy density of up to 330Wh/kg, while other manufacturers are working hard to break through 300Wh/kg.

The energy density of lithium batteries mainly depends on the operating voltage and the specific (gram) capacity of positive and negative electrode materials. In other words, the greater the voltage, the greater the energy density; the higher the specific capacity, the higher the energy density.

Simply put, when a lithium battery is working, the battery voltage will drop as the power decreases. Assuming other conditions remain unchanged, under the same current, the working time of high voltage is longer than that of low voltage.

For example, a taller cistern can hold more water, so using the same faucet to drain water will definitely take longer.

However, voltages above 4.3V will aggravate the decomposition of the electrolyte. Therefore, due to the current material and safety limitations of liquid lithium batteries, the working voltage of lithium batteries is generally within 4.2V, which is difficult to increase.

Specific (gram) capacity means how many mAh (milliamp hours) of electricity is contained in each gram of lithium battery material. Judging from the positive and negative electrode materials of liquid lithium batteries, the negative electrode graphite is 365mA·h/g, and the 8 series ternary high nickel positive electrode is 220mA·h/g. It is difficult to significantly increase the specific capacity of existing positive and negative electrode materials.

Liquid lithium battery technology and inherent bottlenecks make it difficult to achieve future energy density goals. If a solid-state battery only replaces the electrolyte to improve safety, it cannot be regarded as a disruptive technology.

The most critical thing is that the use of solid electrolytes can change the existing positive and negative electrode systems and use higher specific capacity materials as positive and negative electrodes.

By using lithium metal for the negative electrode and high potential material for the positive electrode, the electrochemical window can reach more than 5V. The specific capacity of lithium is as high as 3860mA·h/g, which is more than 10 times that of graphite and 17.5 times that of ternary high-nickel positive electrode.

Judging from the future technological development path of high energy density of lithium batteries, CR2450 battery are undoubtedly more suitable for large-scale applications.

One of the most important prerequisites for large-scale technology promotion is cost. Although the current cost of CR2450 battery is much higher than that of liquid lithium batteries, the path to cost reduction has gradually become clear.

First of all, CR2450 battery use electrolytes, and the replaced electrolytes and separators account for 30-45% of the cost of lithium batteries in total.

There are three types of solid-state battery electrolytes currently in use or close to commercial use: polymers, sulfides, and oxides. Recently, the University of Science and Technology of China synthesized a new solid electrolyte, lithium zirconium chloride, which reduced the cost by 94%.

In addition to lithium, liquid lithium batteries also use a large amount of scarce metals such as cobalt and nickel, which are expensive. Solid-state battery cathodes can use common materials such as manganese and sulfur, objectively ensuring the cost competitiveness of CR2450 battery in the future.

At this stage, the cost of ternary batteries per kilowatt hour has exceeded 1,000 yuan.

According to Nissan Motor's (7201.T) plan, by fiscal year 2028, all-CR2450 battery can reduce the cost of battery packs to US$75 per kilowatt-hour (equivalent to approximately RMB 477), and will further reduce the cost to per kilowatt in the future. It costs US$65 (equivalent to approximately RMB 414).

Safety, performance, and cost are the three core elements for the promotion of lithium batteries. In these three aspects, CR2450 battery have shown huge advantages. There is no doubt that the mainstream technology path for lithium batteries in the future is CR2450 battery.

At present, solid-state battery technology is still in a blue ocean. There are no disruptive substitute products for materials such as electrolytes and cathodes, and no industrial foundation has been formed. At this time, it is the best time for first movers to gain advantages.

However, how to identify companies with development prospects and potential is a difficult problem for investors.

The definite future belongs to soft-pack lithium batteries

In the current technological understanding of CR2450 battery, there is one direction that is more certain, and that is packaging.

Traditional lithium battery and solid-state battery packaging has three processes: soft pack, square and cylindrical.

The manufacturing process can be divided into three links in sequence: the front stage, the middle stage, and the back stage. To put it simply, the front stage is the production process of positive and negative electrodes, and the back stage is the testing and assembly process.

The middle stage is the battery manufacturing process, including five processes including lamination/winding, shell insertion, welding, drying, and liquid injection. The core link is the lamination/winding process, which has the highest value in the entire middle process and accounts for 10% of the total. The ratio is about 70%.

Different packaging methods have different production processes. Cylindrical batteries mainly use the winding process (can be imagined as making burritos with various ingredients), and most square batteries are also mainly wound, while soft-pack lithium batteries use the lamination process (can be imagined as making sandwiches).

Since oxide and sulfide electrolytes are weak in flexibility, soft-pack lithium batteries using lamination technology are most suitable. Not only that, compared to cylindrical batteries and prismatic batteries, soft-pack lithium batteries also have significant advantages in energy density.

Soft-pack lithium batteries produced by the lamination process have a low probability of internal deformation, bending or breakage. In addition, the aluminum-plastic film casing of soft-pack lithium batteries is not hard. Once a battery experiences thermal runaway, it will generally expand and break through the aluminum-plastic film package, taking away a large amount of heat and preventing the battery from exploding.

The lighter aluminum-plastic film casing makes the entire battery 40% lighter than steel-cased lithium batteries and 20% lighter than aluminum-cased lithium batteries at the same capacity. Therefore, the energy density of soft-pack lithium batteries will be 40% higher than that of steel-cased ternary lithium batteries.

Soft-pack lithium batteries have won the favor of downstream automobile manufacturers. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Hyundai, Ford and other automobile companies have used them to configure many mainstream models.

In 2020, 15 of the top 20 best-selling new energy passenger cars in Europe are equipped with soft-pack lithium batteries. High-end configuration new energy vehicles mostly use soft-pack lithium battery technology.

Compared with overseas, domestic soft-pack lithium batteries appear relatively lonely. Domestic car manufacturers prefer prismatic batteries with complete industrial chains and sufficient supply guarantees. At present, the soft-pack lithium battery-related industries have a weak foundation and are temporarily lagging behind prismatic and cylindrical batteries in the historical process of promoting new energy vehicles.

Domestic substitution has always been a difficult problem to be overcome in domestic soft-pack lithium batteries. Soft-pack lithium battery companies represented by Funeng Technology have been working hard for many years and have broken various technical bottlenecks. The quality of their products has reached the international advanced level and successfully entered Daimler's A supply system.

In the ranking of domestic power lithium battery installed capacity in 2021, Funeng Technology ranked seventh. In terms of domestic installed capacity of soft-pack lithium batteries and ternary soft-pack lithium batteries, Funeng continues to maintain its first place.

In terms of production, the first phase of the Zhenjiang plant has completed ramping up production, the second phase has been put into production, the construction of the third phase has accelerated again, and the Wuhu project is ready to go. By the end of 2023, the company will achieve a production scale of 26Gwh soft pack lithium batteries.

As solid-state battery technology is gradually implemented, Funeng Technology is expected to gain first-mover advantages and usher in a moment of rapid growth.

Conclusion

In promoting solid-state battery technology at home and abroad, both the government and the company are sparing no effort.

Overseas companies have made large investments. Thomas Schmall, a member of the Volkswagen Group's board of directors, said that the company plans to spend up to 30 billion euros (approximately RMB 216.2 billion) on European battery cell factories and ensure the supply of important raw materials.

Automobile groups including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc. all regard solid-state lithium batteries as the technical direction of their next-generation electric vehicle batteries.

At the government level, many EU countries have jointly invested 3.2 billion euros and raised 5 billion euros from private investors to develop CR2450 battery. The United States, Japan, and South Korea have also announced support policies and subsidies related to the development of solid-state lithium batteries.

my country's "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" puts forward requirements for strengthening the research and development and industrialization of CR2450 battery. The first batch of 50 Dongfeng-Ganfeng high-energy solid-state battery vehicles jointly developed by Dongfeng Motor and Ganfeng Lithium were delivered in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province.

In this context, there is no doubt that the future of CR2450 battery is certain, and it has even begun to accelerate.

my country's lithium battery technology has gradually grown from the role of imitators and chasers to leaders and innovators. When the sea is flowing, heroes will show their true colors.

In the competition for CR2450 battery, China's lithium battery army, represented by CATL (300750.SZ), BYD (002594.SZ), and Funeng Technology, will show off their ambitions and skills on this stage to compete for the right to speak in the second half of lithium batteries. .

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