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Is the balance point of electric vehicle driving range 300 kilometers?

According to the 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy, pure electric vehicles with a driving range of less than 250 kilometers will no longer enjoy national subsidies, and the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a driving range of more than 400 kilometers will also drop to 25,000 yuan. At a time when subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined significantly, many companies have rationally thought about the driving range of pure electric vehicles. Recently, Xu Heyi, chairman of Beijing Automotive Group, publicly stated: "In the future, the driving range of new energy vehicles will be gradually standardized. In my opinion, a driving range of about 300 kilometers is a very economical and reasonable value."

Cost reduction starts with reducing battery usage

Xu Heyi said: "With the development and popularization of battery replacement technology, the problem of mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles will be well solved. When a new energy vehicle runs out of power, it will be replaced, just like refueling a fuel vehicle. In the battery replacement mode, a driving range of 300 kilometers is most suitable. Because the driving range is too short, it is inconvenient for users to frequently replace batteries. Because battery replacement is convenient, there is no point in blindly pursuing a high driving range."

The reason why Xu Heyi believes that a driving range of 300 kilometers for pure electric vehicles is the most reasonable is that the energy consumption of such pure electric vehicles is relatively economical. He said: "If the driving range of a pure electric vehicle is to reach 600 kilometers, the mass of the battery it is equipped with is twice that of a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 300 kilometers. Not to mention idling, the increased weight of the battery will also increase the wear of the tires and significantly increase the operating costs. The operation of a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 600 kilometers is essentially the battery consuming power to carry the battery itself, which consumes power and consumes a lot of energy per 100 kilometers. We have concluded through measuring various comprehensive factors that a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 300 kilometers is enough." As an important core component of pure electric vehicles, batteries provide power to the vehicle while also increasing the vehicle's weight. How to achieve a balance between vehicle weight and driving range is the core of pure electric vehicles to achieve economic efficiency. Therefore, both the national new energy vehicle subsidy policy and the local government's new energy vehicle subsidy policy have put forward requirements for the energy consumption per 100 kilometers of pure electric vehicles. Especially in the early stage of the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles, the Shanghai Municipal Government had made it clear that only new energy vehicles with a 100-kilometer energy consumption of pure electric vehicles within a certain range could receive local subsidies. This regulation was once regarded as a threshold for Shanghai's local protection and a disguised refusal to allow BYD, which has a large battery load, to enter Shanghai. However, regardless of whether the Shanghai Municipal Government is really carrying out local protection, it is necessary to require vehicles to control energy consumption per 100 kilometers and improve energy utilization. Therefore, industry experts at that time proposed to reasonably control the vehicle's driving range and not blindly increase the battery load. Lin Yi, then chairman of BAIC New Energy, once said that based on the comprehensive consideration of factors such as the energy density of the battery at that time, 160 kilometers was a more reasonable driving range for pure electric vehicles. With the improvement of the energy density of power batteries and the continuous increase in charging facilities, it now seems that 300 kilometers is a more reasonable driving range for pure electric vehicles.

As we all know, batteries are the most expensive of all parts of pure electric vehicles, and installing more batteries means an increase in vehicle costs. This part of the cost will eventually be reflected in the terminal price of the vehicle as the subsidies for new energy vehicles decline or even withdraw. In the last round of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, pure electric vehicles with ultra-long driving range can receive high subsidies, which has led to the phenomenon that the prices of some pure electric vehicles with doubled driving range are similar or even the same as those of pure electric vehicles with only half of their driving range. With the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, such "cheap" long-range vehicles will no longer exist. This part of the cost will be borne directly by consumers.

In the view of Li Jinyong, chairman of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce, the cost of power batteries plays a decisive role in the terminal price of pure electric vehicles and will be the fundamental factor in determining consumers' car purchases. Therefore, car companies must comprehensively consider the cost of using vehicles. In an interview with a reporter from China Auto News, Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, said that in the future, when the subsidies for new energy vehicles are withdrawn, companies will reconsider the design of the mileage of pure electric vehicles. Companies will no longer blindly pursue ultra-long driving range, but will redefine the mileage of vehicles based on usage needs. From the perspective of vehicle energy consumption and consumer demand, 300 kilometers is a foreseeable mileage that is more easily accepted by consumers.

Ultra-long driving range is not the best prescription for mileage anxiety

Previously, the reason why the government and enterprises vigorously developed ultra-long driving range pure electric vehicles was to solve the problem of mileage anxiety of pure electric vehicles. Since the demonstration and promotion of pure electric vehicles, consumers have generally had mileage anxiety, which has also made all parties continue to regard increasing the driving range of pure electric vehicles as a development goal, and the subsequent subsidy policy has greatly tilted towards ultra-long driving range pure electric vehicles. As a result, various car companies have developed ultra-long driving range pure electric vehicles. However, in Li Jinyong's view, ultra-long driving range is not the fundamental solution to mileage anxiety, but the convenience of charging should be improved.

For passenger cars, a traditional fuel passenger car has a driving range of more than 500 kilometers after one refueling, which seems to have become the benchmark value for the driving range of pure electric vehicles. Various car companies have set a goal of achieving a driving range of 500 kilometers or even higher for pure electric vehicles, and the state subsidies also give higher subsidies to vehicles with ultra-long driving range. In fact, ultra-long driving range is not the best prescription to alleviate consumers' mileage anxiety. From the actual application situation, the improvement of charging convenience is more effective. Li Jinyong believes that the so-called mileage anxiety of pure electric vehicles is proposed for traditional fuel vehicles, and the fundamental reason why fuel vehicles do not have mileage anxiety is that their gas station density is high and the refueling time is short, which is also the fundamental reason for their driving range advantage. From this, we can conclude in the field of new energy vehicles: improving the convenience of charging pure electric vehicles is the effective way to solve the mileage anxiety of pure electric vehicles. Once the convenience of charging is solved, the problem of mileage anxiety will be solved.

Factors such as charging pile density and charging time are the main factors affecting charging convenience. Li Jinyong said that, like the development of fuel vehicles in my country, with the rapid development of the number of new energy vehicles, the layout of charging piles will be faster and faster, and the coverage will be wider and wider. Fast charging technology will also continue to develop, and the single charging time will become shorter and shorter. In addition, the innovation of the battery replacement model will fundamentally promote the convenience of charging for new energy vehicles, and then solve the problem of mileage anxiety.

According to Xu Heyi, BAIC New Energy's battery replacement technology has reached 30 seconds per time. The battery replacement is completed in 30 seconds, which is faster than the refueling speed of fuel vehicles.

Charging convenience is improved, and the driving range of 300 kilometers is not afraid

It is reported that in the future, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be cancelled, and the state will provide subsidies for charging infrastructure to continuously promote the construction of charging infrastructure and the improvement of charging convenience. And the improvement of charging convenience will make the market of pure electric vehicles with a driving range of 300 kilometers larger. "From the perspective of my country's current power grid construction, the support of all parties for the construction of charging infrastructure and the prospects for charging profitability, there is a bright prospect for the improvement of charging convenience." Li Jinyong believes that in the future, consumers will no longer have to worry about the difficulty of charging. Within a radius of 300 kilometers or even on highways, vehicles can easily find charging piles, and there are not only one option, but multiple options. More importantly, the improvement of fast charging technology can enable pure electric vehicles with a driving range of 300 kilometers to be charged to enough electricity for 200 kilometers in 30 minutes, and these 200 kilometers can meet the travel needs of most consumers.

Li Jinyong said that the charging piles in newly built communities in my country are already very complete, and the construction of charging piles and power expansion in old communities can also be profitable. "Based on the calculation of 500 parking spaces in each community, each charging pile charges 10 degrees per day, and the service fee for one year is close to 1.5 million yuan. The cost of community power transformation and charging pile construction can be shared in the first year, and continuous profitability can be achieved from the second year. If calculated according to peak and valley electricity charges, the profit will be even higher." Li Jinyong said. The same principle applies to parking lots in shopping malls or companies. In addition to normal parking fees, providing charging services is an act that increases additional income and can continue to make profits for any property company. Where there is profit, there must be a market. "Whether it is the State Grid, or residential areas, office areas, shopping malls and other places, there are conditions and sufficient motivation to accelerate the layout of charging piles. In the future, the charging scenarios of new energy vehicles will become more and more abundant, and the convenience of charging will continue to improve."

"At present, 300 kilometers is a moderate and scientific driving range. But in the post-subsidy era, pure electric vehicles with a driving range of about 200 kilometers will also be very competitive." Li Jinyong believes that "in the post-subsidy era, the 'double points' policy will become an important means to adjust the production capacity of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles. We expect that under the 'double points' policy, the points subsidy obtained for producing a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 200 kilometers can basically be equal to the cost of the battery. In this way, the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles produced by car companies will be lower than that of fuel vehicles." The lower production cost is transmitted to the market, and the price for users to buy pure electric vehicles will be lower. Therefore, users in third- and fourth-tier cities, counties and rural areas where it is more convenient to install charging piles will be very fond of this type of pure electric vehicles. "Especially in the warm south, there is no battery degradation problem in the cold winter. Pure electric vehicles with a range of 150 to 200 kilometers can fully meet consumers' daily travel needs." Li Jinyong said.

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