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Energy storage technology helps electricity will lead the energy transformation


Climate change is the biggest threat facing the sustainable development of human society. The Paris Agreement is a milestone and reflects a high degree of global consensus. Energy is an important factor affecting climate change, and energy transition is very important to address climate change. Although there are many possible scenarios for the energy transition, this article focuses on two of them. The first is a gradual transformation scenario, which means continuing to develop in accordance with current technology, policy and industry trends. The other is a rapid transition scenario in which carbon emissions decline rapidly. The transition path it corresponds to is consistent with the 2°C target required by the Paris Agreement, but this path requires strong policy intervention and support.



The reality is that the development of the energy industry faces dual challenges. On the one hand, economic development requires more energy, and on the other hand, it requires lower carbon emissions. Therefore, technological progress and industrial structure adjustment are very important. Compared with the 30% increase in energy demand in the gradual scenario, the rapid transition scenario will increase energy demand by 20% relative to 2017 due to improved energy efficiency and more careful management, but the structure will change dramatically. By 2040 under the fast scenario, the proportion of coal will even drop to 7%, while renewable energy will rise from 4% in 2017 to 29%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the entire energy structure will rise to 44%. Comparing the carbon emission difference between the gradual scenario and the rapid transformation scenario, we can see that the power industry bears the heaviest carbon reduction task, and it should also be the first industry to achieve low-carbon transformation. The transformation is mainly driven by climate change. The most important document currently in the field of climate change is the Paris Agreement, which has played a shaping role in the development of low-carbon energy and even the development of the entire society.

Global: 1.5°C temperature rise becomes a boom

The fundamental reason why the Paris Agreement was reached is that climate change is the biggest threat to the sustainable development of human society. Protecting global ecological security and achieving green and low-carbon development have become core issues of the world's sustainable development. The Paris Agreement reaffirms the goal of controlling global temperature rise of 2°C, and also proposes efforts to achieve the goal of 1.5°C. Although the difference between the two is only 0.5°C, the extra effort and cost required are very large and have an important impact on our country. At the same time, it stipulates the steps and outlines for achieving this goal in the future: in order to achieve the long-term goal, Parties should reach the global peak of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, and then require a rapid decline. By the second half of the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions and balance of greenhouse gas sources, the so-called carbon neutrality, will be achieved around 2070.

Different from the general "top-down" way of allocating indicators, the "Paris Agreement" adopts a "bottom-up" approach, requiring countries around the world to formulate, notify and maintain their "nationally determined contributions". The frequency of notification is Every five years, new contributions should be stronger than the last and reflect the maximum achievable efforts by the country.

In terms of mitigation, there are differences between developed and developing countries. Developed countries are required to continue to propose economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets, and developing countries are encouraged to move towards economy-wide absolute emission reduction or emission limit targets based on their own national conditions. In terms of funding, due to the historical responsibilities of developed countries, they must provide financial support to developing countries and encourage other countries to contribute on a voluntary basis.

The "Paris Agreement" has reached a legal form of "agreement" plus "decision", is the most inclusive, and takes into account the core concerns of all parties; it adheres to the principles of fairness, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities under the Convention, Taking into account different national conditions and other fundamental principles, a "bottom-up" model was established to form a situation in which all parties independently determine their contributions (NDC) based on national conditions; it was proposed to control global temperature rise within 2°C and strive to control it at 1.5°C long-term goals and a shared vision for global low carbon, climate resilience and sustainable development. Chinese President Xi Jinping and then US President Obama played a key role and made key contributions to the reaching, signing, entry into force and implementation of the Paris Agreement.

At present, the Paris Agreement and its implementation details have been basically reached, and the institutional arrangements for all parties to cooperate in addressing climate change after 2020 have been basically established. The next main task is to implement it in action and increase intensity. Among them, it is particularly important to properly handle the relationship between the 2°C and 1.5°C targets. There are now growing calls for 1.5°C. In September this year, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres convened the United Nations Global Climate Summit to enhance the political will of leaders of various countries and called on all parties to increase efforts to achieve a temperature rise of 1.5°C. In early December this year, the United Nations Global Climate Change Conference will be held in Spain, where negotiations on outstanding market mechanism issues in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will be completed. The Chilean presidency plans to make promoting countries to increase their efforts a core issue of this conference. The "IPCC 1.5℃ Special Assessment Report" believes that climate change is no longer a future challenge, but an immediate threat. Achieving the 1.5°C temperature rise control target requires large-scale emission reduction measures from now on. If the 2°C temperature control target is followed, carbon dioxide emission reductions in 2030 will be reduced by 25% compared with 2010, and the 1.5°C target will be reduced by 45%. The 2°C target requires net-zero emissions to be achieved in the second half of the 21st century, that is, around 2070. According to the 1.5°C target, this goal must be achieved by 2050, which means net-zero emissions must be achieved 20 years in advance. . It should be pointed out that the energy structure of developed countries is low-carbon, and the conditions for achieving carbon neutrality are far better than those of my country. Therefore, achieving the 1.5°C goal will put great pressure on my country.

Next year is a critical year. All parties will update their nationally determined contribution targets after 2020 and propose a long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy by the middle of the 21st century in accordance with the requirements of the Paris Agreement.

China: Electricity leads transformation

In accordance with the requirements of the Paris Agreement, China will submit to the United Nations a strengthened nationally determined contribution target in 2020, as well as a long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy until 2050. The characteristics of my country's energy structure determine that energy transformation is naturally difficult. From a structural perspective, the most significant feature is that coal has been dominant for a long time, but has gradually declined under the guidance of the state in recent years. Coal consumption accounted for 59% in 2018. In 2018, my country's total primary energy consumption was 4.64 billion tons of standard coal, and per capita energy consumption was about 1.2 times the world average, equivalent to nearly 2.4 tons of standard oil. Under the guidance of President Xi Jinping’s Thought on Ecological Civilization, China has formulated active and powerful nationally determined emission reduction targets to promote the energy revolution and promote economic transformation and upgrading. China’s green and low-carbon transformation is proceeding steadily. The Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016~2030) outlines the broad outline of my country's future energy, including carbon emissions peaking in 2030 and the proportion of non-fossil energy reaching 15% by 2020 and 20% by 2030. , the proportion of non-fossil energy should reach 50% by 2050 and a series of goals. The document also states that the power industry must achieve 50% non-fossil energy power generation by 2030, which is a very strict requirement.

It is very difficult to achieve such a goal, and it can be described as a long way to go. First of all, numbers are easy to say, but every percentage point means huge installed capacity. According to the above plan, the increase in China's power generation capacity is calculated in terms of 1 billion kilowatts, so it may be three times or even four times the current installed capacity in the future. In addition, even if we follow the plan of 50% non-fossil consumption in 2050, we are still far from the goal of the Paris Agreement.

In the future, energy consumption will be dominated by electricity, and total electricity consumption also has relatively large room for growth; on the power supply side, the proportion of non-fossil energy will increase rapidly; on the power demand side, the electrification level of the terminal sector will significantly increase; power production The layout of transportation and transportation will gradually transition from large-scale resource optimization allocation to large-scale resource optimization allocation and distributed and local balancing; power generation technology will achieve breakthrough progress and complement energy storage technology, smart grid, energy Internet, and multi-energy The coordinated development of new technologies and new models such as systems and distributed application systems promotes the rapid evolution of power systems to deep integration and intelligence of cyber-physics.

Research from Tsinghua University shows that the timing of action for clean and low-carbon energy transformation will have a great impact on the trajectory of carbon emissions. The later we act, the less remaining coal power/thermal power capacity will be before 2050, resulting in a lack of dispatchable peak shaving capacity in the power grid; moreover, late action will lead to large-scale retirement of coal power in a short period of time, resulting in wasted investment costs and social costs. It may be very high. Therefore, the construction of new coal power projects needs to be extremely cautious to avoid becoming stranded assets. It should be pointed out that when coal power develops carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the carbon capture rate is generally 90%. To achieve net-zero emissions, negative carbon emissions (BECCS) technology is also needed. However, whether the amount of biomass resources is sufficient is always a question. Questionable. In addition, the access of renewable energy will bring about an increase in the demand for cross-regional power transmission and energy storage capacity and the scale of investment. At the same time, the high proportion of renewable energy penetration will present challenges at different time scales, which are distributed in power system planning, operation, and stability. Links such as state and transient states not only require a large amount of investment, but also require innovative solutions.

In short, low-carbon energy transformation has become the consensus and main trend of global development and is irreversible. my country's energy green and low-carbon transformation is already on the way, but the coal-dominated energy structure and sustained economic growth make the energy transformation arduous and long. The 1.5°C temperature rise control target poses huge challenges and pressures to our country. The electric power industry plays a particularly important role in the carbon emission reduction of the whole society. It is a pioneer and a regulator. There are many technical and economic challenges in the low-carbon transformation of the power industry. On the one hand, it requires innovation, seizing the technological commanding heights, and enhancing core competitiveness. On the other hand, forward-looking research and policy deployment are also needed.

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