It is true that various industries will start reshuffling work at different
time points. Those who remain unchanged and do not seek innovation are easily
eliminated. On the contrary, those who are brave in innovation and focus on the
future will make their own abilities stronger. The result is very simple, the
former is washed away, and the latter will take the former's place.
In the 1970s, the concept of lithium-ion batteries was first proposed and
began to be studied. Today, ternary lithium batteries have become the core
element of automobile electrification.
However, facing the coming era of power battery reshuffle, it is full of
confidence but seems worried. Because of technology, the Matthew effect is never
recognized.
As far as the current new energy vehicle market is concerned, we are most
familiar with ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. It
can be said that these two power batteries have supported the current stage of
global electrification development.
However, as everyone pays more and more attention to issues such as
cruising range, charging time, and safety, the "old guys" are beginning to be
unable to do what they want. While people are complaining, complaining, and
being patient, they are looking forward to the early emergence of a battery type
that combines high energy density, high safety, high-efficiency charging, and
low cost.
The "old guy" is under attack from both sides, and "new forces" such as
fuel cells and solid-state batteries are waiting for opportunities. Models
powered by fuel cells have appeared on the market a few years ago. So, when the
era of great reshuffle comes, who will be eliminated, who will continue to
survive, and who will stand out?
Lithium batteries, the most mainstream and most dangerous
To be precise, it should be called "ternary lithium-ion battery"
(hereinafter referred to as ternary lithium battery). Sony released the first
commercial lithium-ion battery in 1991, revolutionizing the development of
consumer electronics. Nowadays, lithium-ion batteries are absolutely mainstream,
and the 3C market has always relied on its existence. Relatively speaking, the
application of new energy vehicles was later.
But as mentioned above, if you don’t make progress, the wave of innovation
will sooner or later hit you on the beach of backwardness. Early last year,
"Nature", the world's oldest and most prestigious scientific magazine, published
an article titled "Only 10 years until the lithium-ion battery revolution." This
article pointed out that the performance and performance of lithium-ion
batteries The pace of price evolution is slowing down.
Looking into the reasons, there are only two reasons:
First, technical bottlenecks. A battery is essentially a device that
converts stored chemical energy into electrical energy. Therefore, there is a
limit to the amount of electricity that can be stored in a crystal structure.
Take mobile phones as an example. With the continuous improvement of hardware
levels, the technology and performance of mobile phones have developed by leaps
and bounds, but the upgrade of supporting lithium batteries is still
faltering.
Compared with 20 years ago, the energy stored in rechargeable lithium-ion
batteries has increased several times. It may seem like a rapid improvement, but
in fact it is far from enough, especially compared with the update speed of
high-tech industries such as chips and software. It can be said that lithium
batteries have gradually moved from being in demand, irreplaceable, and
mainstream to being "replaced."
After being applied to new energy vehicles, this "slowness" becomes even
more prominent. It is impossible for car companies to put a large number of
ternary lithium batteries in a car for a simple reason - weight. With the
simultaneous increase in vehicle weight, the upward curve of actual endurance
capacity will eventually become flat. In addition, charging facilities have not
yet reached a perfect level. The development of ternary lithium batteries in the
field of power batteries is bound to be the first to reach a decision point.
Second, materials. The most important factor that determines the
performance of ternary lithium batteries is the materials of the battery poles,
especially the cathode material. Nickel, cobalt, and manganese, these three
metal elements dominate almost everything. Among them, the greatest significance
of the nickel element is to increase the energy density; the role of cobalt is
to stabilize the layered structure of the material and improve the cycle and
rate performance of the material.
Indispensability leads to no choice. As a result, the prices of nickel and
cobalt continued to surge in 2017, and the market supply exceeded demand.
Although there was a decline in the second half of 2018, the irreplaceability in
the short term still prompted prices to rebound. Many cathode material companies
and lithium battery companies have stated that they must find alternatives due
to cost reasons.
The emergence of "NCM811 (nickel: cobalt: manganese = 8:1:1))" allows
ternary lithium batteries to effectively respond to doubts. In principle,
compared with the mature "532" and "622", the proportion of nickel in 811 has
been further improved. While the energy density increases, the cost decreases.
With further development in the future, cobalt-free lithium batteries are
gradually emerging.
But everything has two sides, and NCM811 is not impeccable. More than one
expert has pointed out that the higher the nickel ratio, the worse the thermal
stability of the entire cathode material. High-temperature instability and
low-temperature performance are inherently shortcomings of ternary lithium
batteries. As a result, safety has become an obstacle that must be overcome
first.
Therefore, many power battery companies focus on safety. Jeffrey Yambrick,
vice president of global marketing of Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is
very optimistic about NCM811, but also admits that stability is an issue that
must be paid attention to: "The issue of concern for NCM811 We have optimized
how to ensure stability at high temperatures. The R&D team of Honeycomb
Energy has improved the cathode material so that the cathode material can work
normally at minus 20-60 degrees Celsius, and the high temperature of 140-150
degrees Celsius increases the impedance by 3 Orders of magnitude form an open
circuit to ensure the safety of the battery core."
Frankly speaking, it is too early to talk about the end of ternary lithium
batteries. One day, once there is a breakthrough in materials or the ceiling is
broken in energy technology, the technical advantages of ternary lithium
batteries will once again be achieved. play.
Lithium iron phosphate battery, where to go?
Strictly speaking, lithium iron phosphate battery is also a type of lithium
battery, which refers to a lithium-ion battery using lithium iron phosphate as
the cathode material. Therefore, the most essential difference from ternary
lithium-ion batteries lies in the cathode material.
Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries
have obvious shortcomings - low energy density. This alone seems to be enough to
kill them with a brick. But don’t forget that the advantages of lithium iron
phosphate batteries are also outstanding. The biggest reason why lithium iron
phosphate batteries are commonly used in new energy logistics vehicles, buses,
and trucks is because of their high stability and low cost.
In the short term, lithium iron phosphate batteries still have a stable
market in the fields of small urban scooters and commercial vehicles. Coupled
with the cancellation of the new energy vehicle policy in 2021, the cost
advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be even more effective.
Although the energy density is not as high as that of lithium batteries,
lithium iron phosphate batteries themselves have not stopped upgrading. Breaking
through 200Wh/kg is not a dream. "There is still a lot of room for further
development in lithium iron phosphate batteries. We have not given up on lithium
iron phosphate batteries and have continued to invest. I think this is a correct
decision. Making lithium iron phosphate batteries will not involve Nickel metal,
cobalt metal and other resources, so there is great development." Cai Yi,
president of Guoxuan High-tech Engineering Research Institute, is very confident
in the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In 2017, Waterma's use of lithium iron phosphate materials reached nearly
20,000 tons, occupying nearly 30% of the market share. Although in 2018, Waterma
was hit hard by the debt crisis, the demand side became more concentrated, and
the supply system changed greatly. However, BYD, Beterui, Peking University
Xianxian and other companies still plan to further expand production, which also
reflects the expectations of power battery companies for the future of lithium
iron phosphate batteries.
Is there any potential for new technologies?
"The true meaning of energy security is hydrogen energy, and the true
meaning of new energy vehicles is fuel cell vehicles." Wang Chaoyun, chairman of
Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy, is quite confident in the new energy field in which he
is engaged.
The reason why Wang Chaoyun regards fuel cells as a real new energy source
is not just because he is a relevant practitioner, but more importantly because
of his understanding of the nature of this technology. He said that fuel cells
only require hydrogen and air. With hydrogen, fuel cells can be used, which can
be converted into electricity and heat through electrochemical reactions. In
this view, he is right.
The pure electric vehicles around us use electric drive. Where does the
electricity come from? Referring to data from more than a year ago, thermal
power accounted for 73.93% of the country's power generation, and hydropower
accounted for 18.26% of the country's power generation. Thermal power generation
and hydropower generation, as the names suggest, the former uses the heat energy
generated when coal resources are burned and converts it into electrical energy
through a power generation device, while the latter converts water energy into
electrical energy.
Needless to say, everyone can understand that whether it is resource
utilization at the source or emissions at a later stage, most electricity cannot
be 100% clean and pollution-free, and all uses traditional energy. So where is
the term new energy?
Back to the topic, as a hydrogen fuel cell, its working principle is the
reverse reaction of electrolysis of water, that is, a chemical reaction between
hydrogen and oxygen in the air, and then generates electrical energy (charge
transfer to form electric current) and water. The reaction place is the fuel
cell stack. There are two characteristics of hydrogen fuel cells that require
special attention. First, they use the most abundant hydrogen element in the
universe, and there will be no problem of resource depletion. Second, during the
entire working process, the only waste emitted is "water" , there is no
pollution problem.
In addition, the hydrogenation efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is
very high, and it basically takes about the same time as refueling. In terms of
cruising range, several models currently in mass production, such as Honda
Clarity and Toyota Mirai, can reach more than 500 kilometers.
However, fuel cells also have their problems: one is cost, the other is
safety. I won’t go into details on the technical level here, but here are a few
vivid examples: The current cost of a hydrogen refueling station is at least
about 20 million yuan, not counting the land cost. Since hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles require complete hydrogen storage equipment, the cost is also high.
According to the Japanese official websites of Toyota and Nissan, the Toyota
Mirai is twice as expensive as the Nissan LEAF in Japan.
In addition, safety is also a big issue. Hydrogen is unstable, flammable
when exposed to air, and is colorless and odorless. If the hydrogen storage
bottle in the car cannot be absolutely sealed after a collision, or the hydrogen
gas can be discharged in time, in the event of a vehicle collision, the
consequences will be disastrous.
Wang Chaoyun believes that from the current technical level and performance
perspective, China's hydrogen fuel cell technology is almost close to the level
of Japan and South Korea. Regarding safety issues, he is very confident in the
technical aspect. "Our fuel cell, hydrogen and air can be isolated. Use it when
you need it, and isolate it when not in use. If it is isolated, it will not burn
or explode."
At the end of 2018, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of
the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, chairman of the Central
Committee of the Zhi Gong Party, and chairman of the China Association for
Science and Technology, wrote that "the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles
are driving range and charging time, which cannot yet satisfy the needs of
large-volume and wide-ranging long-distance buses, Market demands such as
double-shift rentals, urban logistics, and long-distance transportation. To this
end, the focus of industrialization should be expanded to fuel cell vehicles in
a timely manner." Although there are still problems of this kind, the advantages
of fuel cells are too prominent, and it is very important for companies The
temptation is too great, and if you give it time, scaling is not completely
impossible.
Solid-state batteries look further ahead than fuel cells, but from a
battery structure perspective, they are closer to current ternary lithium
batteries. The most obvious difference between solid-state batteries and the
latter is that the electrolyte used is a solid-state structure.
Don’t underestimate this change. Fisker once claimed that their solid-state
battery has applied for a patent. Its energy density is 2.5 times that of
traditional lithium batteries, and it has the ability to restore 160 kilometers
of endurance in 9 minutes. Compared with ternary lithium batteries, solid-state
batteries have the characteristics of high energy density and high stability,
but they are shortcomings in terms of conductivity.
At present, many vehicle companies and power battery companies are
developing solid-state batteries, including Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Bosch,
Hitachi, Dyson, etc. Domestic power battery companies also have certain relevant
technical reserves, among which CATL has already Obtained many patents for solid
electrolyte diaphragms, lithium-ion batteries, and solid electrolyte materials
for lithium-ion batteries.
At present, the research and development of solid-state batteries is still
in the technical reserve stage, and there is still a long way to go before
large-scale mass production. "Currently, solid-state batteries are particularly
hot. Judging from the industry's judgment, it will take at least 3-5 years for
them to be able to successfully demonstrate operation in new energy vehicles
with the same slightly higher energy." Anhui Levi Power Sun Xiaodong, chairman
of the battery, gave a timetable for implementation in his mind.
The significance of solid-state batteries is not to replace them in the
short term, but to focus on the future. Whether it is technical features or
acceptance, solid-state batteries are a perfect option in the eyes of many
people. Although this perfect existence is still far from final scale, it may be
much easier to start with the "transition" technology of semi-solid flow
batteries.
Generally speaking, a certain field will not allow only a single technology
to exist. It is more practical for multiple technologies to complement each
other. Lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries are making
every effort to break through bottlenecks and focus on the commercial vehicle
and passenger vehicle markets respectively; fuel cells and solid-state batteries
are laying out their future plans to provide technical direction support for the
first two. The point of shuffling is not who to wash away, but who to keep in
the end.
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