The spring of energy storage has arrived, but the summer of booming
industry development is far from coming, and disruptive innovations and
breakthroughs are yet to be made in technology. It is expected that
electrochemical energy storage technology will undergo disruptive development in
the next decade.
Although I have been engaged in energy storage research for many years, I
am still a newcomer to the energy storage industry, because it was not until
last year that China's energy storage industry really started to develop.
Whether it is technology development or industrial application, there are still
many things that I need to learn and think about in the future.
2017 is the first year of energy storage in China. The issuance of the
"Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Energy Storage Technology and
Industry" marks the arrival of the spring of energy storage. Energy storage
projects, especially battery energy storage projects, are springing up like
mushrooms after rain in the fields of power generation, grid side, user side,
microgrid, communication energy storage, emergency power supply, etc. The spring
of China's energy storage has arrived.
“Renewable energy + energy storage” is an inevitable choice
Looking back on the past ten years, the initial development of China's
energy storage industry is closely related to the rapid decline in the cost of
photovoltaic and wind power generation and the rapid development of new
energy.
In 2017, China's photovoltaic and wind power generation accounted for 8.0%,
becoming the third largest source of electricity after coal power (64.5%) and
hydropower (18.6%). The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power
generation reached 130GW, and wind power generation The cumulative
grid-connected installed capacity is 164GW. Ten years ago, photovoltaic and wind
power together accounted for less than 0.8%. In the past ten years, the cost per
kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation have
also dropped by 90% and 70% respectively, and are close to the level of grid
parity.
The intermittent and variability of renewable energy power generation, as
well as the increasing penetration rate, pose severe challenges to the normal
operation and dispatch of the existing power grid system. In recent years, in
order to utilize as much renewable energy as possible and improve the
reliability and efficiency of power grid operations, various energy storage
technology research and engineering demonstration projects have developed
rapidly.
By the end of 2017, a total of 175.7GW of energy storage projects had been
put into operation around the world, and 32.8GW of energy storage projects had
been put into operation in China. The vast majority (>95%) of them were
pumped hydro energy storage projects, but electrochemical energy storage has
become the most developed The fastest and most watched energy storage technology
direction. Although the current cost of energy storage is still high, everyone
has reached a consensus: "Renewable energy + energy storage" is an inevitable
choice for the development of new energy.
In the past ten years, the initial development of China's energy storage
industry is inseparable from the diligent work of a large number of people in
the energy storage industry: reducing energy storage costs through technological
progress, demonstrating the advantages of energy storage through demonstration
applications, identifying problems and accumulating experience, and The calls
and reports from industry associations and media have promoted information
communication and exchange between industry enterprises and government
departments. Through various efforts, the energy storage industry has gradually
become familiar and accepted by everyone, and has recently begun to develop and
blossom everywhere.
"Clean energy + energy storage + intelligence" is the development direction
of the energy Internet. The future development of clean energy and smart energy
is inseparable from energy storage.
The country has put forward the goal of making onshore wind power grid
parity on the power generation side and photovoltaic power generation parity on
the user side by 2020. On the other hand, my country's energy structure is also
facing three outstanding problems that need to be solved urgently: the haze
problem in North and Northeast China, the peak load power shortage problem in
some parts of the southeast, and the abandonment of wind and light in the
northwest region.
Energy storage can make a difference in solving the above problems. In the
next decade, energy storage will gradually transition from the initial stage to
the rapid development stage. The specific performance is as follows:
First, pumped storage power stations with the main purpose of peak shaving
and valley filling will be fully constructed;
Second, the total scale of electrochemical energy storage projects on the
grid side is likely to reach 10~30GW;
Third, the new energy power generation side will carry out the construction
of some key energy storage demonstration projects;
Fourth, heat storage projects that support clean energy heating will have
important development in the northern region;
Fifth, distributed energy storage projects combined with comprehensive
energy services will develop rapidly in the southeast region.
Here, I also call on relevant national departments to make long-term plans
based on the characteristics of our country’s energy structure, guide the
development of high-energy-consuming, low-pollution manufacturing industries and
data industries in areas rich in primary energy, and try to balance the economic
gaps in various regions from a strategic direction. This To some extent, it will
also alleviate the resource pressure faced by the development of the energy
storage industry.
The technology key to thriving
The spring of energy storage has arrived, but the summer of booming
industry development is far from coming. Various types of energy storage
technologies have been put into commercial or demonstration applications,
demonstrating the advantages of energy storage in applications, but also
gradually exposing some problems, especially electrochemical energy storage
technology. There is still a considerable gap between the development goals of
"low cost, long life, high safety, and easy recycling" and requires disruptive
innovation and breakthroughs in technology.
Existing lithium batteries for energy storage are gradually developed from
micro-small batteries such as mobile phone batteries. In addition to making the
battery volume larger, it has not yet departed from the core design idea of the
adhesively coated thin-film electrode structure of small batteries, which brings
great challenges to large-scale storage. The consistent design of viable lithium
batteries poses fundamental problems.
In addition, battery manufacturing costs remain high, there are potential
safety hazards in use, and recycling of batteries after they are scrapped is
also very difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to completely break away from
the original small battery design ideas and develop disruptive large-scale
energy storage battery structural technologies, including ultra-thick slurry
electrode technology suitable for capacity-type energy storage and
ultra-high-voltage structural technology for power-type energy storage. On this
basis, we will innovate and develop low-cost manufacturing technology, safe and
life-extending repair technology, and green and environmentally friendly
recycling technology to meet the needs of different energy storage application
scenarios and support the innovative and breakthrough development of the energy
storage industry.
Therefore, it is expected that electrochemical energy storage technology
will undergo disruptive development in the next decade. The safety issues and
lifespan issues of existing electrochemical energy storage demonstration
projects under actual working conditions will gradually emerge, and some of the
technical routes will be forced to be abandoned. Some electrochemical energy
storage technologies will be newly designed and developed based on the needs of
energy storage application scenarios. and comprehensive energy storage
technology will be demonstrated, promoted and commercially applied.
For the energy storage industry, which energy storage companies will stand
out in the next decade? I think the following four types of companies deserve
attention:
An export supplier of energy storage products or production equipment with
reliable technology and an international perspective;
An energy storage product supplier with unique technical routes and obvious
competitive advantages in cost;
An energy storage operation and maintenance service provider that masters
core application technologies and cooperates with insurance companies to provide
energy storage leasing services;
An energy storage system company affiliated to the power grid company.
In terms of policy formulation, it is necessary to learn from the
development experience of my country's photovoltaic industry and new energy
automobile industry, as well as the formulation of international energy storage
industry policies during the same period, to promote the development of my
country's energy storage industry relatively steadily. It is expected that the
energy storage policy mechanism can be expressed far-sightedly within the
framework of the power system reform, combined with the characteristics of the
local energy structure, adapted to local conditions, and comprehensively
promoted.
Energy storage has a long way to go from promoting the consumption of
renewable energy to reducing the cost of renewable energy utilization.
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