Technical deviations lead to increased safety risks
"I saw a report from the China Automotive Industry Center, saying that at
least 50 accidents have occurred this year. As long as an accident occurs, no
matter which company or brand it is, the entire new energy vehicle industry will
be affected, and the lithium battery industry will also be affected." Liang Rui,
vice president of Wangda (300207.SZ) Group and president of the power battery
segment, said.
According to Qilu's statistics, the number of accidents involving electric
vehicles is far more than 50. "Burnings, explosions, and various accidents,
public and undisclosed, number more than a hundred every year. Although not all
accidents are caused by the batteries of electric vehicles, there are many
reasons. But the safety of the battery and reliability have become important
factors restricting the development of the electric vehicle industry." Qilu
believes.
According to industry insiders, the reason why the lithium battery industry
is going further and further on the road of high energy density and high
cruising range is mainly because companies pay too much attention to government
subsidies, and the subsidies are related to the influence of vehicle companies.
Without government subsidies and relying solely on market initiative, the
electric vehicle industry and the lithium battery industry would not develop at
the current rate. This is also the consensus of people in the battery industry.
However, as government subsidies gradually decline, the "double-edged sword"
role of government subsidies has gradually become apparent.
"We are rushing to increase energy density. What is the real purpose? Is it
for environmental protection or excessive environmental protection? Is it for
saving or excessive saving? Do we need mileage for mileage or excessive mileage?
Everything must be done in a degree. Unscientific cost Demand has also increased
safety risks. In recent years, popular practices in the battery industry such as
simplified system design and increased capacity of single cells have increased
battery safety risks." Cheng, director of the Research Institute of Lixin
(Jiangsu) Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Jun said.
"Now all our actions, from operations to production capacity, to the design
of electric vehicles, to battery energy density and technology development
direction, are all linked to subsidies. It is necessary to keep up with policy
developments, but the indicators stipulated in the policy have increased too
quickly , and it also makes it difficult for companies to cope with it and make
it difficult to do product development seriously." Liang Rui said in his speech
that in terms of cruising range, it was 250 kilometers in 2016, 300 kilometers
in 2017, and more than 400 kilometers in 2018. It must be achieved next year 500
kilometers or even 600 kilometers; in terms of energy density, it reached
140Wh/kg in 2018. In 2019, there are many rumors in the market. Some people say
that it will be increased to 180Wh/kg. Regardless of whether the policy is like
this, vehicle companies have already started to take action. Many car companies
now require it to be above 160Wh.
In the past two years, they were driven by policies and vehicle companies.
Battery companies were busy upgrading technology and raising funds to expand
production, and did not pay enough attention to safety issues. Now, with the
decline of policy subsidies, the market has begun to play a role, and the
industry's low period has arrived. , the power battery industry began to pay
more attention to safety issues. "From the perspective of industry development,
the energy density of power batteries needs to be improved, but energy density
is money and safety is life. We cannot give up money at the expense of life!"
said Mao Huanyu, chairman and general manager of Suzhou Yuliang Battery Co.,
Ltd.
Even charging operating companies have come up with their own solutions. Yu
Dexiang, chairman of Qingdao Telaidian, said in his speech that the use of
Telaidian's pile-less charging and group management and group control cloud
charging system can monitor the status of electric vehicles during the charging
process. Monitor and detect battery problems in time to improve the safety of
electric vehicles. "When charging through a special network, the possibility of
burning the car will be reduced by 70%."
Many industry insiders said that no method is omnipotent. The safety of
electric vehicles is not just a problem for battery companies, but a systematic
project that requires the joint efforts of material suppliers, battery equipment
suppliers, battery companies, and OEMs. .
Diversified technical routes
"What kind of lithium battery technology does the electric vehicle industry
need? Is it necessary to solve the problem through high energy density?" Qilu
suggested that battery companies relax their thinking and consider this issue
based on the actual situation. "Today, there are still a large number of
lead-acid batteries entering non-road areas on a scale of hundreds of thousands
and millions of vehicles. There are also nickel-metal hydride batteries, a
battery technology that is almost forgotten by everyone, and has been used in
Japanese hybrid vehicles. China's battery and electric vehicle companies should
also rethink their technology direction from a market and practical perspective,
especially from a safety perspective."
But for new technologies that are becoming increasingly popular in the
industry, such as high-nickel ternary batteries, solid-state batteries, and
hydrogen fuel cells, Qilu also advises companies to remain cautious and calm.
For example, high-nickel ternary batteries are more likely to release a large
amount of heat than materials such as lithium manganate and lithium iron
phosphate, and pose greater safety challenges.
In Qilu’s view, some of the solid-state battery technologies currently on
the market are not strictly speaking real solid-state battery technologies.
Solid-state battery technology still has key technical difficulties that need to
be overcome: "Can the energy density be increased by simply converting the
industrial electrolyte to a solid-state electrolyte? Can the safety of the
battery be improved? Moreover, if there are no revolutionary changes in pole
piece technology , using today’s manufacturing methods of lithium battery pole
pieces cannot solve the conductivity problem.”
Even hydrogen fuel cell technology, which is regarded as the ultimate
solution for new energy vehicles, Qilu and his students have calculated that if
China's 300 million electric vehicles were converted into hydrogen fuel cells,
the consumption of fresh water to extract hydrogen would be It is so huge that a
water-scarce country like China cannot bear it. Moreover, the process of
extracting hydrogen energy also consumes electricity.
"In specific areas, hydrogen fuel cells can be combined with lithium
batteries to solve problems in terms of safety and cruising range. This is okay,
but as some people say, the future is dominated by fuel cells, and lithium
batteries will be replaced. Now It’s too early to see,” Qilu said.
Facing the advent of the post-subsidy era, some companies have expressed
that they are considering other technical routes besides ternary lithium
batteries. "In the past two years, many people in the industry have asked, what
will happen to lithium iron phosphate? The company represented here clearly
stated that as an OEM, power batteries will definitely choose a diversified
technology route in the future. Ternary lithium battery is the main direction,
but iron phosphate Lithium will definitely be our choice in the future. Lithium
iron phosphate has its special characteristics and is especially suitable for
small mobility vehicles." Ni Shaoyong, deputy general manager and director of
the research institute of Chery New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., said
in his speech, In the next one to two years, market demand for lithium iron
phosphate batteries will increase.
Ma Zhonglong, deputy general manager of Honeycomb Energy Technology Co.,
Ltd., which is invested by Great Wall Motors, proposed the research and
development direction of cobalt-free cathodes. He said that the company has
mass-produced cobalt-free cathode cells, and the cost is significantly lower
than those of traditional ternary material cells.
"2018 has been 'highly anticipated'. 'The first year of new energy vehicle
consumption', 'The first year of new car manufacturing forces', 'The first year
of large-scale retirement of power batteries', 'The first year of hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles', 'The first year of high-nickel batteries' "First year of mass
production" and other similar words are frequently seen in various media." Yu
Qingjiao, Secretary-General of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology
Innovation Alliance and Secretary-General of the Lithium Battery "Davos"
Organizing Committee, said that these words reflect the importance of new energy
technology and Under the upsurge of market development, new products, new
technologies, new business formats, and new models are constantly emerging, and
the lithium battery industry has a bright future.
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