Recently, news that CATL plans to mass-produce NCM811 power batteries next
year has put a new round of technology competition in the power battery industry
before people's eyes. Earlier, BYD also stated in an unofficial public statement
that its NCM811 power battery will be put into use in the second half of
2019.
Recently, news that CATL plans to mass-produce NCM811 power batteries next
year has put a new round of technology competition in the power battery industry
before people's eyes. Earlier, BYD also stated in an unofficial public statement
that its NCM811 power battery will be put into use in the second half of
2019.
NCM811, a ternary lithium battery with a nickel-cobalt-manganese content
ratio of 80%:10%:10% in the cathode material, represents the route with the
highest energy density and highest technological content in the current power
battery field.
However, in the current context, the two major power battery leaders have
both announced that they will launch NCM811, but the core intention is not to
fight to the death at this time.
Two years later, after the decline of domestic new energy vehicles and the
liberalization of the power battery industry, foreign-funded batteries that are
leading in technology and industrial layout will truly make a comeback. By then,
there may be a more tragic Three Kingdoms Killing of power batteries. The most
effective way for domestic power battery companies to respond is to respond to
challenges with advanced technology.
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High-nickel material system becomes the only way for power batteries
If in 2017, power battery companies still had doubts about the selection of
cathode materials for ternary lithium batteries, then one year later, two
powerful forces: the price of cobalt, and the energy density requirements put
forward by policies and markets, basically The company's choice is locked in
high-nickel ternary materials.
According to data from the London Precious Metals Exchange in February this
year, in the 18 months since then, the price of cobalt, a particularly critical
material in power batteries, has tripled, with the highest price reaching
US$80,000 per day. Ton. According to the financial report of Jinchuan
International, the world's fourth largest cobalt producer, its average cobalt
selling price rose to US$74,243 per ton in the first half of the year, a
year-on-year increase of 118%. In the past two days, the price of cobalt
(electrolytic cobalt) has fallen slightly below 500,000 yuan/ton. However, the
price of one ton of electrolytic nickel is currently just over 110,000.
Cathode materials account for the highest cost of power batteries, up to
30%. Comparing the soaring cobalt prices with the relatively low nickel prices,
power battery companies have decided to pick nickel. This is the first factor in
the rise of high-nickel ternary materials.
At the same time, range anxiety for electric vehicles is still widespread
today. The recent news that NIO ES8 has a cruising range of over 200 kilometers
at a speed of 120 kilometers per hour has attracted widespread attention, which
is the best example. Consumer expectations for the cruising range of electric
vehicles are transmitted to power battery companies through car manufacturers,
which inevitably require batteries with higher energy density, greater charge,
and the ability to run farther.
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It just so happens that the main role of nickel in lithium-ion batteries is
to increase the gram capacity and make the energy density of the battery higher.
Public data shows that the gram capacity of NCM811 material can reach 190mAh/g,
which is significantly higher than NCM523, which has higher cobalt content and
is currently the most mainstream in China.
Similarly, national policies are also strengthening the requirements for
the energy density and cost of power batteries. The "Action Plan to Promote the
Development of the Automotive Power Battery Industry" issued in February 2017
clearly states that by 2020, the energy density of a power battery cell will be
300Wh/kg, the system energy density will be 260Wh/kg, and the cost will be 1
yuan/Wh. New energy vehicle subsidy standards that continue to rise. For
example, this year, pure electric passenger vehicles require a system energy
density of 140Wh/kg to receive full subsidies. This is also pushing the power
battery industry to move towards high-nickel ternary materials.
In 2018, NCM811 became the darling of the domestic power battery industry.
Not only BYD and CATL have expressed plans for mass production in 2019, but
Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy also plan to mass produce in 2019. BAK,
Lishen, and Penghui New Energy have even stated that their NCM811 power
batteries have already Achieved mass production and supply. Among them, BAK also
listed a customer list, including BAIC New Energy, SAIC Maxus, Yundu, etc.
NCM622, which was originally planned to be developed and promoted based on
NCM523, has become less popular at this time.
With the joint efforts of many parties, China's power battery technology
seems to be ushering in another round of "one step" leapfrog development.
Battle for high-nickel power batteries: Japan leads, domestic production
has fallen behind
However, when the NCM811 trend was blowing in China's power battery
industry, "bad news" came from South Korea:
Last year, SKI, the third largest company in South Korea's power battery
industry, announced the mass production of NCM811 soft-pack power batteries and
will supply Kia's electric vehicles. However, this year, SKI announced that it
would postpone the mass production of NCM811.
As for LG, another power battery giant in South Korea, when the Hyundai
KonaEV equipped with LG batteries was unveiled at the beginning of this year, it
was once rumored to be "the first electric vehicle to use NCM811 batteries."
However, the Korean media later refuted the rumors and said that the KonaEV uses
NCM622 ternary batteries. Battery. LG Chem’s CFO also stated in an interview
that the NCM811 produced by LG is limited to cylindrical lithium batteries and
is only used in electric buses.
However, domestic manufacturers have not yet achieved large-scale
production of the NCM622 technology route, which has slightly lower technical
requirements. In terms of future-oriented technology reserves, the domestic
power battery industry is the weakest among China, Japan and South Korea.
There has always been a mutually restrictive relationship between the
various attributes of ternary lithium power batteries - the higher the energy
density, the more difficult it is to ensure temperature control and safety; to
ensure the battery cycle life, the energy density will be relatively
limited.
▲The relationship between the nickel content in the ternary material and
the battery properties: the left side is the runaway temperature, the middle
side is the gram capacity, and the right side is the capacity retention
performance
The proportion of nickel in NCM811 is increased, which increases the energy
density of the battery. However, it has to pay many costs such as reduced
battery cycle life, poor thermal stability of the battery, and reduced power
performance. This requires the use of other key materials in the power battery.
(Anode material, separator, electrolyte) and the links of battery core groups
and systems should be repaired.
Only Japan's Panasonic has truly solved the problem of mass production and
application of high-nickel ternary material power batteries in the form of
cylindrical batteries. Although the cathode material used by Panasonic is NCA
(nickel cobalt aluminum), and the ratio of the three materials is 80%:15%:5%, it
is essentially the same as the NCM811 route. On the 21700 cylindrical battery
used in Tesla Model 3, Panasonic achieved the single cell energy density target
of 300Wh/kg.
▲2170 battery cells used by Tesla
The ultra-high energy density of the batteries offered by Panasonic is not
solely due to the high-nickel cathode material. On the negative electrode,
Panasonic uses carbon silicon material. The gram capacity of silicon is
4200mah/g, while the gram capacity of pure graphite anode is only 373mah/g. The
gram capacity of carbon-silicon anode material mixed with silicon can reach the
level of 400-650mah/g, further increasing the energy density of the battery.
.
Tesla previously pointed out in its production report that some of its
battery performance indicators are already stronger than those of its
competitors' next-generation batteries. Compared with CATL's roadmap, this seems
to be the case.
Looking at the technology roadmap of CATL, they use NCM811 with
carbon-silicon anode to achieve an energy density of 300Wh/kg, which will only
be launched in 2020.
This means that Panasonic is at least 2-3 years ahead of China's leading
power battery companies in the industrialization and application of high-nickel
ternary lithium power batteries to passenger cars. Although CATL and BYD ranked
first and third in power battery shipments last year, Panasonic is still
recognized as the number one in terms of technology.
Although many domestic power battery companies have launched NCM811
cylindrical lithium batteries and begun to market them, they are completely
unable to compare with Panasonic's supply of several GWh in scale.
Mass production of high-nickel batteries requires industry-wide
progress
Previously, Che Dongxi appeared in "One Girl Marries Multiple!" According
to analysis in "Behind the Global Car Companies' Grabbing CATL", CATL's frequent
joint ventures with car manufacturers are mostly due to the fact that its
technological depth is not as advanced as that of foreign giants, and it hopes
to use this move to bind car companies. Share the risk. BYD has also recently
entered into a joint venture with Changan in the power battery field.
However, the lack of technological dominance is not entirely due to the
lack of hard work of CATL and BYD. Due to the nature of power batteries that can
affect the whole body, the application of NCM811 actually requires the full
cooperation of the entire industry system. The upstream and downstream of
domestic power battery manufacturers, China's power battery industry and even
the new energy vehicle industry are already in the role of catch-up.
In the upstream of the entire industry, Japanese and Korean companies
currently dominate the technology for the four key materials of power batteries
(positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, separators, and
electrolytes), especially for more cutting-edge high-nickel ternary materials
and their supporting materials.
1. Cathode material
In terms of cathode materials, the mature preparation technology and mass
production capabilities of high-nickel ternary materials are currently mainly in
the hands of Japan's Sumitomo, Toda Industries and South Korea's ECOPRO.
High-nickel ternary materials also rely heavily on imports.
▲Ternary materials under the electron microscope
According to statistics from the CBC Nonferrous Network, my country
imported a total of 9,142 tons of ternary materials in 2017, a significant
increase of 288.5% year-on-year.
2. Negative electrode material
In terms of anode materials, the domestic power battery industry is also
lagging behind in the production and application of carbon-silicon anodes.
According to data from Qidian Research Institute, China's output of
silicon-carbon anode materials for lithium batteries reached 1,500 tons in 2017.
Although the growth rate reached 130%, it only accounted for 1% of the total
output of lithium battery anode materials throughout the year.
In Japan, Panasonic used carbon-silicon anodes in the NCR18650C model
battery released in 2012, and carbon-silicon anodes were used in subsequent
Tesla power batteries. This means that Japan’s carbon-silicon anode materials
have begun large-scale industrial application since 2012.
3. Electrolyte
In terms of electrolyte, the NMC811 power battery has a higher chemically
active nickel content, which is more likely to react with the electrolyte.
First, it will cause surface oxidation of the positive electrode material.
Second, it will cause the electrolyte to decompose and produce gas, affecting
the energy of the battery. , safety performance. At this time, it is necessary
to develop an electrolyte with more stable chemical properties that matches the
NCM811 material.
Similarly, my country's electrolyte industry started later than Japan and
South Korea. Although it captured 70% of the global electrolyte market share in
2017, Chinese companies are making slower progress than Japan, South Korea,
especially Japan, in the new generation of electrolytes that are matched with
high-nickel ternary materials. Currently, the electrolyte in Tesla's NCA power
battery, which represents the highest strength, comes from Japan's Mitsubishi
Chemical, which has 20 years of production experience. Domestic manufacturers
are generally still in the stage of technological research. At present, only
domestic electrolyte giant Xinzhoubang has publicly announced mass production of
electrolytes matching NCM811 cathode materials.
4. Battery separator
Regarding the separator with the highest technical content, the high nickel
and high energy density of power batteries require two major improvements in
separator technology - first, the production method is changed from dry to wet,
so as to obtain better charging rate and energy. Density performance; second,
the film material has evolved from PP/PE to ceramic materials, thereby obtaining
better safety performance and energy density performance.
▲Diaphragm production line
According to 2015 data, the world's top three lithium-ion battery separator
manufacturers are Japan's Asahi Kasei, Tonen Chemical, and South Korea's SKI.
The top six overseas companies have a total market share of 72%. In 2016, the
total demand for lithium battery separators in the Chinese market reached 2
billion square meters, accounting for nearly 60% of the global market. However,
the output of domestic separators was only about 1.2 billion square meters, and
the import rate of separators reached 40%. Although domestic separator
manufacturers have continued to increase their market share in the past two
years, they are still in the embarrassing situation of overcapacity in low-end
dry process separators and insufficient production capacity in high-end wet
process separators.
In the middle reaches of the industry, on the side of power battery
manufacturers, the domestic choice of power battery packaging routes has also
brought a test to the mass production of NCM811 power batteries.
Panasonic uses a cylindrical lithium battery packaging route, which has a
relatively hard shell and a small single cell. The advantage of this is that the
high-hardness shell can better suppress the volume expansion of the
carbon-silicon anode and the production of gas in the battery. The problem. At
the same time, the thermal runaway problem of a single smaller cylindrical
battery is better managed and less likely to spread. As power batteries move
toward high-nickel ternary batteries, safety issues have become most acute, and
the shape of cylindrical lithium batteries has better alleviated this
problem.
Domestic power battery manufacturers, led by CATL and BYD, mostly choose
the square hard-shell packaging route. The advantages in ensuring safety are not
as obvious as cylindrical batteries. Square hard-shell NCM811 power batteries
have not yet become popular in the world. Cases of large-scale application, no
experience to follow
In addition, the battery core consistency of domestic power battery
manufacturers also lags behind that of Japanese and Korean companies.
In the downstream industry, the ability of car companies to carry out
supporting applications for power batteries is also a difficulty hindering the
popularization of NCM811. Still taking Panasonic's power battery as an example,
Panasonic and Tesla are actually in a mutually beneficial relationship.
Although Panasonic has provided Tesla with 21700NCA batteries with a single
energy density of 300Wh/kg, in fact, Panasonic has not completely solved the
negative impact of high nickel and carbon-silicon anodes, and the cycle life of
its batteries has not been It has reached the current level of 2000+ times for
mainstream ternary material batteries.
However, Tesla has extended the service life of the power battery in
disguise by increasing the battery system capacity to 100KWh and reducing the
single discharge depth of a single cell. At the same time, Tesla’s battery
liquid cooling system and BMS, which can manage 7,000 battery cells, are also
ensuring the normal operation of the battery.
The ability of domestic car companies to conduct in-depth cooperation with
power battery manufacturers to create a deeply customized battery management
system to deeply optimize battery working conditions has yet to be verified.
In addition, there are still problems in the domestic power battery
industry that need to be solved, such as reliance on imported production
equipment and the inability to reuse the original production lines to transition
to NCM811 production.
Foreign giants are eyeing domestic companies to catch up quickly
Judging from the current industry situation, for the next generation of
high-nickel ternary power batteries, Japan is currently in a leading position in
technology and application due to the radical multinational combination of
Panasonic-Tesla and the strong and complete industrial chain support behind it.
All are in a leading position.
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