With the advancement of the concept of global sustainable development, my
country's environmental protection and carbon emission issues have become
increasingly prominent. At the same time, the extremely high dependence on
imported petroleum resources has also become a potential risk factor threatening
my country's national energy security. Therefore, it is imperative for my
country to replace traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles.
But what are the alternatives?
The jury is still out. At present, the more mainstream new energy vehicle
solution is lithium battery pure electric vehicle. After decades of development,
its technological maturity has been guaranteed to a certain extent, and
quantitative production has begun to enter the market.
From 2011 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of market sales was
78.8%. However, due to insufficient battery life, infrastructure and
manufacturing cost constraints, its passenger car market share is still less
than 5% so far. Moreover, many recent lithium battery car fire accidents have
caused public concern about the safety of lithium batteries.
At the same time, hydrogen fuel cells have quickly attracted the attention
of the entire society with their high energy density and completely clean energy
use process, becoming a new alternative for new energy vehicles.
Will hydrogen energy, a new energy vehicle, replace lithium battery
vehicles and become mainstream in the future? Or are the two options compatible
with each other?
Many people in the industry have compared the two solutions from the
perspective of cost of use, but Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that the
implementation of a technical solution in the field of new energy vehicles will
inevitably lead to changes in the entire industrial chain and even adjustments
to the energy structure of the entire society. It has social significance.
major. The overall energy use efficiency of society must be further considered
on the basis of micro-use costs before a scientific comparative analysis of the
two technical solutions can be conducted.
01
The essence of the difference between hydrogen and lithium technical
solutions is the energy carrier
Throughout the history of human development, it is also a history of
continuous improvement in the way humans use energy. The first industrial
revolution enabled humans to convert the chemical energy of fossil fuels into
the kinetic energy of steam engines, while the second industrial revolution
enabled humans to further convert the chemical energy of fossil fuels into
electrical energy. Every revolution is accompanied by improvements in energy
density and energy efficiency. Therefore, improvement in energy efficiency is a
decisive factor in whether a new technology can replace old technology and gain
social acceptance.
Under the current technical conditions, tracing back to the source of
energy generation, the technical routes of the two new energy vehicle technology
solutions of "hydrogen" and "lithium" can be summarized into the following five
types:
The energy sources of the two technical solutions of hydrogen fuel cells
and lithium batteries are exactly the same. They are both fossil fuels (coal,
natural gas) or other energy sources (nuclear, water, wind and solar energy).
There is no difference in the final output, both are driven by the movement of
the car. For electrical energy, the main difference is the intermediate energy
storage method. The "lithium battery" solution uses electricity as the energy
carrier and lithium batteries as the storage method; while the "hydrogen energy"
solution uses hydrogen chemistry as the energy carrier and hydrogen gas as the
storage method.
Therefore, from a social perspective, which solution is more energy
efficient, which solution is likely to gain a dominant position in the
future.
02
Energy utilization efficiency analysis of different solutions
Efficiency calculation of key links in technical route
Except for technical route 2, the other technical routes have exactly the
same contradiction between the "hydrogen" and "lithium" solutions: whether to
use lithium battery storage to realize mobile electric energy applications, or
to convert electricity into hydrogen energy storage and then use fuel cells
Transformed into mobile power applications?
That is, the path selection problem of "electricity → mobile electric
energy" vs. "electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric energy". If this problem
is solved, the advantages and disadvantages of the "hydrogen" and "lithium"
solutions among the four technical routes 1, 3, 4, and 5 will naturally be
clear. The energy utilization efficiency of the two paths is analyzed as
follows:
Lithium battery solution (electricity → mobile power)
The energy conversion process consumption of lithium battery system
includes: power transmission consumption, grid transformation cost, lithium
battery production cost, charging station cost, battery self-weight consumption
cost, battery charging and discharging energy consumption, etc.
(1) Power transmission loss. Since the power of lithium battery vehicles is
transmitted through the existing power grid, there is no need to consider the
cost of power grid construction. The loss during power transmission is currently
estimated to be about 4%.
(2) Lithium battery production cost. With the expansion of production
batches in the future, the cost of current lithium batteries for compact family
cars will continue to decline due to economies of scale. It is expected to drop
to about 20,000 yuan in the next few years. According to the battery life cycle
of 600 times of charging and discharging, each time If the battery life is
400km, the battery cost during the lifetime is about 8.3 yuan/100km.
(3) Charging station construction cost. According to research, the current
construction cost of charging stations is about 2 million (including 10 60Kw
fast charging piles). Assuming a service life of 10 years and an average
utilization rate of 20%, the average shared construction cost per kilowatt hour
is about 0.2 yuan/kwh.
(4) Grid transformation cost. When a large number of charging piles are
laid out, the power supply will exceed the load of the local grid, and the grid
needs to be transformed. Assuming that the grid transformation investment for a
single charging station is 1.2 million yuan, the grid transformation cost per
kilowatt hour is about 0.18 yuan/kwh.
(5) The battery’s own weight consumes electric energy. Generally, the
lithium battery power system of a family car weighs about 500kg and consumes
about 2.8kwh/100km of electricity.
(6) Lithium battery charging and discharging consumption. At present, the
electric energy consumption of lithium battery during charging and discharging
is about 8%.
To sum up, according to current estimates, a lithium battery car consumes
15kwh of electricity per 100 kilometers, of which the effective electric energy
is 12.2kwh. The conversion of electric energy from the power plant to the output
of the battery pack consumes about 12%, that is, the total energy consumption at
the source per 100 kilometers is about 17.05kwh. The energy utilization
efficiency is 71.55%, and the non-energy cost is about 14 yuan.
Hydrogen energy solution (electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric
energy)
The energy conversion process consumption of the hydrogen energy system
includes: hydrogen production power consumption, hydrogen transportation cost,
fuel cell cost, hydrogenation station cost, battery power generation loss and
battery system self-weight energy consumption, etc.
(1) Power transmission loss. The average power grid loss is about 4%.
(2) Electricity consumption for hydrogen production. Under current
technical conditions, hydrogen production through electrolysis of water is about
0.019kg per kilowatt-hour of electricity.
(3) Fuel cell manufacturing cost. The manufacturing cost of hydrogen fuel
cell systems from advanced international manufacturers is about 200,000 yuan,
and it is expected to drop to about 100,000 yuan after mass production in the
future. In the future, the service life of hydrogen fuel cells is expected to
reach 10,000 hours, and the total driving mileage during the life period is
expected to be 400,000 kilometers. The shared cost per 100 kilometers is about
25 yuan.
(4) Hydrogen refueling station cost. The current construction cost of a
hydrogenation station with an average daily hydrogenation capacity of 500kg is
about 20 million, mainly composed of equipment costs. It is expected that after
mass production in the future, the construction cost can be reduced to 10
million yuan. If the hydrogenation station operates 360 days per year, has a
utilization rate of 40%, and depreciates over 10 years, the construction cost
will be apportioned to approximately 13.89 yuan/kg.
(5) Battery power generation loss. According to statistics, Toyota Mirai
consumes 0.76kg of hydrogen per 100 kilometers.
(6) The fuel cell stack consumes energy due to its own weight. The weight
of the fuel cell stack is about half that of the lithium battery, and the
corresponding energy consumption in terms of electrical energy is 1.4wh.
In summary, it can be seen that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles consume a total
of 40kwh of electric energy per 100 kilometers at the terminal and 41.67kwh at
the source of the power system.
Regardless of the efficiency difference between the hydrogen fuel cell
engine and the lithium battery engine, and assuming that there is no difference
between the two vehicles except the power system, the effective energy
consumption per 100 kilometers of the fuel cell vehicle is also 12.2kwh. The
energy utilization efficiency of the hydrogen fuel cell is only 29.28%,
accompanied by a non-energy cost of 35.55 yuan.
Source: Jiuniu Research Institute
Therefore, the "Electricity → Hydrogen → Mobile Electricity" solution is at
a clear disadvantage in terms of energy utilization efficiency, which means that
the technical route of producing hydrogen through electrolysis of water (Route
3, Route 5) is unlikely to be used on a large scale in the field of new energy
vehicles in the future. Promote the application!
Overall evaluation of each technical route
Technical route 1 (fossil fuel → electricity → mobile electric energy)
my country's fossil fuels are dominated by coal, with coal power generation
accounting for 64.67% of the total electricity and natural gas power generation
accounting for 6.33%. Moreover, my country is highly dependent on natural gas
imports and is unlikely to become the energy basis for new energy vehicles in
the future. Therefore, the following analysis of fossil fuels uses coal as a
representative.
Calculated based on the ultra-high voltage power plant with the highest
power generation efficiency, its standard coal consumption is 360g/kw·h, and
standard coal contains thermal energy of 29.3'106 Joules/kg. Therefore, the
chemical energy utilization efficiency of coal-fired power generation is 34.13%,
and the power generation cost (excluding coal consumption) is approximately 0.14
yuan/kwh. Combined with the previous analysis of the "Electricity → Mobile
Electric Energy" link, it can be concluded that this technical route consumes
6.14kg of standard coal per 100 kilometers, the overall energy utilization
efficiency is 24.41%, and the non-energy cost is approximately 16.4 yuan.
Technology route 2 (fossil fuel → hydrogen → mobile electric energy)
With the current process, coal gasification hydrogen production requires
about 9kg of standard coal to produce 1kg of hydrogen, and the non-energy cost
is about 5.6 yuan. Combined with the previous analysis of the "Hydrogen→Mobile
Electric Energy" link, it can be concluded that the hydrogen vehicle using this
technical route consumes 6.84kg of standard coal for every 100km traveled, the
overall energy utilization efficiency is 21.91%, and the non-energy cost is
approximately 39.81 yuan.
Technology route 3 (fossil fuels → electricity → hydrogen → mobile electric
energy)
This technical route consumes about 15kg of standard coal per 100
kilometers, the overall energy utilization efficiency is 9.99%, and the
non-energy cost is 41.38 yuan.
Analysis conclusion
Source: Jiuniu Research Institute
From the analysis of the current mainstream technical routes, it can be
seen that the hydrogen energy automobile industry faces the following
difficulties:
1. Under current technical conditions, the hydrogen energy route does not
have any advantages over the lithium battery route.
2. From the perspective of social energy utilization efficiency, the
technical route based on electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen cannot become
the foundation of the future hydrogen vehicle industry due to its low
efficiency.
3. The only route that can compete with the lithium battery route in terms
of energy efficiency is route 2, which uses fossil fuels to directly produce
hydrogen. However, the sulfide impurities in the hydrogen produced by this
method can easily lead to poisoning of the fuel cell catalyst, which is
currently not available in China. Effective detection.
4. Compared with the lithium battery route, the hydrogen energy route
requires re-construction of infrastructure, resulting in a significant increase
in non-energy costs.
If we cannot make further technological breakthroughs and improve energy
efficiency, the hydrogen automobile industry will be a rootless tree! However,
the hydrogen energy industry is just in its infancy, and there are still endless
possibilities in the future.
From the perspective of energy efficiency, the hydrogen production process
and fuel cell power generation efficiency are likely to be further improved. In
terms of non-energy costs, the cost of fuel cells and hydrogen refueling
stations will drop significantly with the large-scale development of the
industry in the future.
Whether the hydrogen energy route can achieve technological breakthroughs
and replace the lithium battery route to become the dominant new energy vehicle
in the future still needs time to test!
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