Panasonic has become a backup plan for Tesla rather than the center of the
supply chain universe.
According to the latest media reports, Tesla is developing its own
lithium-ion batteries in a "secret laboratory" near the Fremont factory in the
United States and has begun to explore technical reserves for mass production of
related battery products. Prior to this, Tesla had relied on its Japanese
partner Panasonic for its power battery supply.
For Tesla, self-developed power batteries can not only reduce production
costs, but also improve the independence of parts supply, avoiding the
embarrassment of previous production capacity being restricted by others,
without the need to share relevant data and resources with external partners. As
of today, neither Tesla nor Panasonic has responded directly to this matter.
Everything has been foreshadowed
Since April this year, Tesla and Panasonic have caused a stir in the
industry by freezing the Gigafactory in Nevada, USA. The factory is managed by
Tesla, and the lithium-ion batteries suitable for the entire vehicle are
manufactured by Panasonic.
According to the originally scheduled production capacity target, it is
enough to handle the annual output of 400,000 Tesla's three cars. Tesla said
that because of the inefficiency of Panasonic's battery production (the output
of the U.S. factory production line is only one-third of the production capacity
2), which once restricted the scale production of Model 3.
Regarding this matter, Japanese media directly used the term "deterioration
of marital relations" to describe the actual situation of both parties. It is
reported that Panasonic invested 200 billion yen in the Gigafactory to
exclusively supply Tesla. However, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the battery
business The profit margin of the automobile-related departments including the
company is only 3.4%, which is lower than that of many horizontal
departments.
Panasonic officially shifted its business focus from home appliances to
vehicle batteries in 2008. Since President Tsuga Kazuhiro took office in 2012,
he has been hoping that the development of the automotive battery sector will
become the company's new revenue pillar. However, judging from recent financial
reports, it will take a long time to achieve this goal.
In a media interview in May this year, Panasonic President Tsuga Kazuhiro
conducted a profound reflection on the current situation of the automotive
battery business. The key information is as follows:
Panasonic once used 2018 as a watershed to divide its business into three
major sectors: "high-growth business", "stable growth business" and "income
improvement business". Although the sales of the high-growth business have been
increasing, due to the cost of power battery development The market demand has
increased sharply, resulting in the company's insufficient ability to respond to
potential risks, and profit contribution has stagnated.
Although Kazuhiro Tsuga repeatedly emphasized that cooperation with Tesla
is not a simple supply relationship, but a "family relationship where blood is
thicker than water," he also expressed his inner dissatisfaction in the second
half of the speech. In his view, although Panasonic's battery supply has indeed
become a constraint at this stage, Tesla's car manufacturing and mass production
itself was a bottleneck before that.
Tesla's production capacity is limited, not just for power batteries. For
Panasonic, everything is determined by following the pace established in the
contract, but factors such as local production sites in the United States,
employee training, and an increase in the number of resignations in the later
period can lead to a series of negative feedback, which is not only related to
costs, but also affects profits. .
Kazuhiro Tsuga believes that the current focus of the two companies should
shift to next-generation battery investment and cooperation. Tesla is about to
introduce a new product Model Y to the market. When demand increases, battery
supply will definitely be insufficient. Panasonic will negotiate with Tesla in
detail on a feasible solution.
Where will the cooperation with Panasonic go?
Self-sufficient internal design can ensure that Tesla’s battery supply will
not stagnate. Drew Baglino, the company’s vice president of technology, also
spoke at an internal meeting. Only by developing its own batteries can Tesla Let
the company “become the master of its own destiny.” Of course, this is also in
line with Musk's overall goal of making internal operations as "vertically
integrated" as possible.
The media discovered that Tesla recently quietly released recruitment
information for battery engineers in the United States. The scope of duties
involves battery design, battery production equipment maintenance, and battery
R&D and production. Some internal employees also revealed to the media that
Tesla is working intensively to rehire a group of former employees who have
resigned but have relevant work experience in the power battery field.
Just this past May, Tesla acquired battery manufacturer Maxwell. At the
shareholder meeting in May, Musk also hinted that the company would use Maxwell
to produce its own power batteries, and said that it is very possible in the
future. It may enter the field of battery raw material mining and further change
the current situation of lithium-ion batteries being controlled by others.
Today, Tesla's battery strategy is becoming more and more like China's BYD.
For this type of company, battery self-sufficiency can reduce the risk of
suppliers raising prices, and can also make large-scale mass production of cars
more cost-effective. easy.
Relevant people close to Tesla believe that even if Tesla's plan to get
involved in battery production is successful, Musk will not cut off its
cooperative relations with Panasonic and other battery suppliers in the short
term. Just recently, Tesla also reached a cooperation agreement with Japan's
Toyota to produce power batteries.
Of course, this incident also raised questions in the industry about
Tesla's specific implementation level. The company has just implemented a cost
reduction plan and is working hard to improve its high-volume car production.
For Tesla today, Producing batteries in high volumes will be another
challenge.
No matter what the outside world speculates about the future of Tesla's
battery production, various signs have shown that the relationship between the
company and Panasonic is already in a very tense state. Kazuhiro Tsuga even
stated in an interview with the media that Panasonic will most likely stop
supplying sufficient power batteries to Tesla after 2020.
Speaking of which, we need to mention the Tesla Shanghai factory that
everyone is generally concerned about. Panasonic had previously planned to
supply its own power batteries to the factory. At that time, there were two open
route options, either from the Tesla-Panasonic production line in Nevada, USA,
or from the Panasonic battery factory in Japan. Shipped directly.
Obviously, neither of the above two routes is the most thorough supply
solution for Tesla. As the uncertainty of cooperation with Panasonic increases
day by day, where will the battery supply from Tesla's Chinese factory go? There
are two relevant details from which we can get a glimpse.
First, Panasonic President Tsuga Kazuhiro accepted an exclusive interview
with local Japanese media in April this year. When answering a reporter's
question, he made it clear that "whether Panasonic will participate in the
battery supply of Tesla's Chinese factory in the future, now It’s not determined
yet.”
The second is that Tesla insiders recently revealed to the media that no
matter how the future partnership evolves, Tesla's Shanghai factory's plan to
"accept supplies from multiple battery suppliers" is already a certainty.
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