LR41 battery.Technical strength determines future earnings. Lithium battery powerhouse Hengqiang

　　In the past few years, foreign battery companies have been cautious in expanding their production capacity. Recently, LG announced a production expansion plan of more than 100GWh. Samsung, which has experienced several large cycles of panels and semiconductors, has launched a 26 billion yuan investment in power batteries, which is also the world's largest investment in recent years. Investment deserves our great attention. According to estimates from the production expansion plans of five leading battery companies including LG, CATL, BYD, Panasonic, and Samsung, the total new production capacity of the five companies is expected to be 319GWh.

　　Subsidies have entered a new stage, and the proportion of high-end products has increased. On June 12, 2018, the new subsidy policy officially began to be implemented, and the product structure of each link was further high-end. a) In terms of passenger cars, in recent months, the sales proportion of A00-class models has declined significantly, while the sales proportion of A-class models has increased significantly. b) From January to October, the average charging capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles reached about 40kWh, and the single-car charging capacity of electric buses and special-purpose vehicles also reached 191kWh and 54kWh respectively. The single-car charging capacity increased significantly. c) We predict that the demand for power batteries in 2018 will reach 58GWh, with a growth rate of 60%. In 2020, the demand for power batteries will exceed 100GWh, and the compound growth rate in the past four years will reach 40%. d) The ternary battery technology route is currently the best choice. It is expected that in 2020, it will be close to 90GWh, and the four-year compound growth rate will reach 90%. e) Companies that can produce high-end products will benefit, and industry concentration will further increase. From January to October, the market share of the top five companies in power battery installed capacity was 77.8%, which was 61.6% in 2017, and the concentration rate further increased. f) According to the production capacity plans of major material manufacturers in the past two years, there are signs of excess production capacity. Industry competition will intensify in the future, but some high-end products will still be in short supply, and industries with high concentration will be able to ensure stable profit levels.

　　We believe that the pace of subsidy adjustments will not stop, and existing policies will still be adjusted in 2019. The degree of subsidy reduction in 2019 is likely to be smaller than that in 2018, but the development trend of new energy vehicles remains unchanged.

　　Under the New Deal, there is an obvious tendency for the strong to stay strong, and technical strength determines future earnings. a) Power battery: CATL and BYD are in an absolutely leading position. After the implementation of the New Deal, their combined market share has exceeded 60% of the power battery market. We believe that the scale effect will bring more R&D investment, and the technology is currently undergoing rapid iteration. The power battery industry will make the strong always strong. b) Cathode materials: NMC has replaced LFP as the main development direction of power battery cathode materials. The compound growth rate will reach 90%, and the future space is huge. Due to slow demand growth for LFP, low-nickel 333 type and 523 type cathode materials, capacity utilization will decline, resulting in a decline in profit margins. High-nickel ternary cathode materials will remain in short supply due to their difficulty in preparation and limited supply. c) Anode materials: The industry is highly concentrated, with natural graphite CR5 accounting for about 90% and artificial graphite CR5 accounting for approximately 80%, which can ensure a stable profit margin level in the industry. You can pay attention to anode companies that have made breakthroughs in the industrialization of silicon-carbon anodes. d) Separator: Driven by the rapid development of ternary lithium batteries, wet method is expected to become mainstream. In recent years, diaphragm production capacity has expanded rapidly. When production capacity is fully released, fierce price competition will occur. At this time, companies with low product costs will eventually gain a larger market share.

　　Investment advice: We believe that the market structure of each link in the domestic power lithium battery industry chain has initially taken shape, and the threshold for new entrants has been greatly improved compared to previous years. Smaller companies in the future market will gradually be eliminated, and the final market pattern will be formed. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading power battery company CATL, Dangsheng Technology, which is the leader in high-nickel ternary technology; Shanshan Co., Ltd., which has the leading market share of ternary cathode materials and strong cost control capabilities, and Putai, which leads the market share of negative electrode materials. Come to Shanshan Co., Ltd., Enjie Co., Ltd., a leading wet separator company, and Xingyuan Materials, a leading dry separator company.

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