With the approval of the State Council, the World New Energy Vehicle
Conference (WNEVC) was grandly held in Boao, Hainan from July 1-3, 2019. The
conference focuses on the transformation and upgrading of the global automobile
industry and the continuous improvement of the ecological environment. By
gathering the wisdom of global experts and industry elites, the conference will
jointly exchange and discuss the successful experience and success of new energy
vehicles in the fields of technological innovation, industrial innovation,
policy innovation, and market model innovation. development trends, build
industry consensus, clarify the direction of transformation and upgrading of the
automotive industry, and explore effective paths for the coordinated development
of electrification, intelligence, and sharing. At the plenary meeting on the
afternoon of the 2nd, Professor Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University, delivered a speech, the content of
which is as follows:
I would like to take this opportunity to introduce the "Prospects of
China's New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap for 2035". Let me introduce it to
you in three points:
First, pure electricity and pure electric drive technology. The point I
want to express is that the development of new energy vehicles in the past ten
years has coincided with the increase in the energy density of lithium-ion
batteries from 100Wh/kg to 300Wh/kg, and the price has dropped from 5 yuan to
the current lowest of 0.8 yuan, achieving a revolutionary breakthrough in the
battery field in a century. . From a car perspective, volumetric energy density
is more important than weight energy density. Lithium-ion batteries have an
advantage in volumetric energy density. Other high-specific energy batteries
cannot compete with lithium-ion batteries in this aspect. I personally believe
that lithium-ion batteries are expected to become the mainstream technology for
automotive batteries. Of course, as the specific energy increases, a problem
arises: safety. The first major and urgent task is how to increase the safety
balance point to an energy density of 300Wh/kg. In terms of safety, safety
accidents should be said to be a fatal hidden danger in the current development
of new energy vehicles, and we must solve them as soon as possible. The essence
of safety accidents is thermal runaway of the battery. There are mechanical
reasons, electrical reasons, thermal reasons, etc. Thermal runaway on a single
battery is not fatal. The key is that it will cause the spread of thermal
runaway in the entire battery system, thus forming ACCIDENT.
My team has also been engaged in battery safety research, and we
established the Tsinghua University Battery Safety Laboratory. After nearly ten
years of research, we have discovered three main thermal runaway mechanisms of
high-specific energy power batteries. The first is the precipitation of active
lithium in the negative electrode, which is caused by fast charging or
overcharging. The second is that the diaphragm is punctured, causing an internal
short circuit and causing thermal runaway. The third type is a high-specific
energy battery that releases active oxygen in the positive stage. The oxygen
evolution density continues to decrease as the specific energy increases. The
first and second mechanisms are mainly to prevent the causes, which are lithium
deposition during battery charging and fast charging control. We have cooperated
with Nissan on the charging algorithm, supported by a large amount of
experimental data and considering various situations, to avoid many thermal
runaway problems, so we see that the Leaf is the most sold electric vehicle. In
addition, there are internal short circuits and battery management issues in the
battery. Internal short circuits must be prevented in advance through battery
management methods. There are many battery management technologies that will
best prevent the causes of short circuits within the entire battery. The battery
management system must be upgraded to a new generation of safety-focused battery
management. Based on the third mechanism, that is, the oxygen loss temperature
decreases after the emergence of high nickel, the core should start from the
single battery design, especially the thermal design, a new generation of
electrolyte additives, etc. I can tell you that the new generation 811’s oxygen
loss temperature has been reduced, the heat release rate has been greatly
increased, and the maximum temperature of thermal runaway has also been greatly
increased. We dare not ask students to do the large-capacity battery thermal
runaway experiment in school. If these problems cannot be prevented,
system-level prevention and control is needed to prevent the spread of thermal
runaway. This is thermal spread and thermal management, which can be solved
through a combination of heat dissipation and heat insulation. In short, active
prevention and control of thermal runaway of lithium-ion power batteries can
basically solve the battery safety problem, and it is not unsolvable. I also
communicated with the chairman of Volkswagen yesterday, and he was also full of
confidence. Battery thermal runaway is not only the lifeline affecting the
sustainable development of electric vehicles, but also a main theme of market
competition and brand building. The new generation of electric vehicles does not
rely on power, but may rely on safety. Whoever is safe, reliable and reassures
users will win customers in the future.
Based on the previous introduction, I am confident about the prospects of
lithium-ion power batteries in the two major fields of vehicles and energy
storage. I think it will exceed expectations.
I think China may reach the goal in the Boao Consensus released today a few
years ahead of schedule, that is, global new energy vehicles will account for
half of annual new car sales in 2035. According to the new energy vehicle
technology roadmap in the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology
Roadmap", our goal in 2030 is 45-50%, and China is in the top ranks of the
world. Based on this estimate and the large-scale explosion of the energy
storage market, Director Chen just said that the price of renewable energy is
already comparable to that of coal power. China has abundant renewable energy
production capacity, with 100 million kW installed capacity a year. On this
basis, there are other means of transportation, such as boats. Recently, I have
seen that some leading companies have begun to make electric boats, with each
boat equipped with 1,000-2,000 kilowatt hours of electricity. Total
electrification of transportation is on the rise. Based on this basic trend, my
personal judgment may be more optimistic than this picture. This picture
probably shows that around 2027, global lithium-ion power battery production
will reach 1 trillion kWh. I personally think that according to the current
technology of Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota, the launch of electric vehicles is
generally 2-3 years ahead of schedule. China's original estimate was to reach 1
trillion kWh around 2030. Optimistic estimates suggest that it will be 2-3 years
ahead of schedule. We must be fully prepared for this.
Another revolutionary change is that high power density and extremely small
volume motor drives bring revolutionary opportunities to vehicle design. Japan's
Mitsubishi recently announced that the motor kilometer density has reached
23kW/L, and Germany's motor control module adds up to 100kW/L. Slow charging
used to use AC chargers, which are on-board, but are now being transformed into
DC slow charging, which are not on-board. Our front cabin is all vacated, and we
are communicating with foreign experts who are studying these issues. Slow
charging is the main method, and fast charging combined with energy storage will
solve the charging bottleneck problem. We always believe that slow charging
solves 80% of the problem, and 20% is fast charging, fast recharging, not fast
full charging. Fast charging is a safety risk. Fast charging can recharge very
quickly. I think 15 minutes is acceptable, and 15 minutes can charge 50%. CATL
is even better than this indicator.
Based on this, my outlook on China’s pure electric vehicle marketization
roadmap is basically consistent with Director Chen’s judgment. There will be a
turning point in cost performance in 2025, and then there will be great
development. Of course, in 2025, batteries will cost US$100 per kilowatt hour,
and the price will even be lower than 650 yuan, and 100 kilowatt hours of
electricity will still cost 65,000 yuan. If you want to guarantee a
500-kilometer range in spring, summer, autumn and winter, or even high-speed
driving, you need 80-100 kilowatt-hours of electricity, which costs about 50,000
to 60,000 yuan. There are also more cost-effective ones, which are pure electric
vehicles with a distance of more than 80 kilometers in urban areas. When driving
in urban areas, pure electric performance is the best among all models.
High-speed and long-distance single-motor parallel drive. Parallel drive is a
driving method with the best comprehensive performance on highways. , we combine
the two, and use a single motor instead of dual motors, a simplified
transmission system, which can save more than 80% of fuel. If this system has
long mileage, it is a very cost-effective solution, and I am very optimistic
about it. At present, there is a cost difference of about 10,000 yuan between
this kind of system and conventional deep hybrid power. But when our battery
drops from the current price of more than 1 yuan to more than 6 cents, the cost
difference will only be 3,000-5,000 yuan. This price can be recovered by using
electricity instead of oil and saving on fuel costs.
For pure electric plug-in models, everyone is familiar with the range
extender, because everyone understands what the range extender is, but when it
comes to plug-in, everyone doesn't know what it is. There are two types of
plug-ins. One is during the power-down stage. For example, a pure electric
cruising range of 80 kilometers requires about 20 kilowatt-hours of electricity.
In urban areas, 20 kilowatt-hours of electricity is enough to drive us to 120
kilometers without any problem. In this case, we have two ways. One way is when
the power drops, it is not pure electric, but there is still hybrid power, but
the power keeps dropping. This is a hybrid plug-in hybrid. When the power drops
to a fixed value ratio, such as 30%, it enters the regular hybrid state and the
SOC remains stable. This is a plug-in. Another type of plug-in is in the early
descent stage, the engine does not start, and only after the power drops to a
certain level, it enters regular hybrid power. This is the pure electric plug-in
type.
Next, let me talk about fuel cells, which is also a very hot topic now. Let
me first state that my own team does both pure electric power, fuel cells, and
hybrid power. If we talk about interests related, all three are related to me.
What I mean by this is that I think I should be relatively neutral. As for fuel
cell technology, I just mentioned that cars may be pure electric vehicles. For
anything that pure electric vehicles can do, I don’t think fuel cells should be
used because the fuel cost itself cannot be accurate, so what are fuel cells
used for? It is possible to do things that pure electric vehicles are not
suitable for, such as commercial vehicles, long-distance trucks, etc., such as
buses operating in the northern winter, and logistics vehicles, etc. So we say
that new energy fuel cells are more suitable to replace diesel engines, and
lithium-ion power systems are more suitable to replace gasoline engines. In
fact, this is not entirely correct. Because any kind of words that are very
popular are often difficult to be very rigorous. All papers and mathematical
formulas are the most rigorous, but no one can understand them. Popularization
may lose some rigor.
Let me talk about commercial vehicles next. China happens to be the leading
country in fuel cell commercial vehicles. It doesn’t matter how many commercial
vehicles we have in operation now. How many units we sell is meaningless. The
key is how many units are in operation. It is roughly estimated that there
should be 2,000 units now. Our fuel cell hybrid is quite successful. Let’s talk
about facing 2035. Even for commercial vehicles, we all know that the hydrogen
consumption required by commercial vehicles and passenger cars is very
different. About 150 kilograms is enough for a passenger car, but a commercial
vehicle, even a 7.5-ton logistics vehicle, will only consume 2 tons, a 2.8-meter
vehicle starts from 4 tons per year, and a 49-ton truck has 10 tons of hydrogen
per year. The current hydrogen can fully meet the hydrogen supply demand in
2035. Our country is currently rich in hydrogen, gas mines, gas wind, and gas
water, with at least 5 million tons, some say 8 million tons or even 10 million
tons.
Fuel cell engines can meet the needs of large-scale applications by 2035.
In another five years, it will become mature. Let's take a look outside. We have
various fuel cells. In recent years, we have made very rapid progress. Let's
take a look. CCM, membrane electrodes, stacks, and the entire industry chain
have already Open up and bring global resources to China. What's the problem?
Facing the bottleneck of our commercial vehicles as the main body, the
bottleneck of the fuel cell commercial vehicle industry chain is not at the two
ends, but in the middle, which is hydrogen transportation, vehicle hydrogen
storage and hydrogenation. As we all know, commercial vehicles are very
sensitive to fuel costs, more sensitive than passenger cars. Second, the large
amount of hydrogen consumption means that the on-board hydrogen bottle is not
suitable for use. Therefore, the on-board hydrogen bottle is the largest in the
middle of the power system, the most sensitive to safety, and the cost is about
to become the highest. This is something no one expected. Third, the on-board
hydrogen storage takes a long time to occupy the hydrogen refueling station, and
it occupies a large area. A commercial vehicle has a large area, and there is a
safe distance, which reduces the number of service vehicles at a single station
to less than 1/3 of passenger cars. One station corresponds to 1,650 passenger
vehicles, but commercial vehicles can only correspond to more than 300 vehicles.
There is a big difference between the two.
The bottleneck of hydrogen storage and transportation for commercial
vehicle-based promotion in 2035 is currently 20 MPa, and a 30-ton truck can hold
300-350kg. This cannot support the large-scale development of hydrogen energy,
and there is an urgent need to transform to 300 atmospheres. , gradually rising
to 500 atmospheres to reduce transportation costs. There are also large-scale
pipelines to transport hydrogen. Liquid hydrogen storage has advantages, but key
components are imported, the construction period is long, and the overall
storage and transportation capacity is insufficient. The total capacity of
global hydrogen liquefaction plants is currently 150,000-200,000 tons, and it
may be 2 million or 3 million tons by 2035, which is only ours One tenth of
that.
The second one is a vehicle-mounted hydrogen storage bottle. The 35MPa
hydrogen storage bottle can support urban buses for 250 kilometers, mid-level
logistics vehicles for 300 kilometers, intercity buses with 70MPa for 400
kilometers, and heavy logistics vehicles for 500 kilometers. The new generation
that wants to pack more is liquid hydrogen, but it will take another five years
of exploration to determine whether this technology is feasible for large-scale
application.
The third is the bottleneck of hydrogenation stations. There are 360
hydrogenation stations in the world. Most of them are small stations. The
maximum is 1.25 tons per day. There are 16 types in China. The total capacity is
8 tons per day and 500 kilograms per station. The highest one is in Zhangjiakou.
, my team built China’s first hydrogen refueling station, the Beijing Yongfeng
Hydrogen Refueling Station, which is also the largest hydrogen refueling station
in the country. It serves 1.5 tons and 50 buses every day, because it needs to
be refueled every day. According to 2030, 2-4 million tons of hydrogen will be
supplied, with an annual increase of 500-10,000 tons. The middle number I took
is 8,000 tons, which is 1,000 times the 8 tons I mentioned. We can also think of
a way. What should we do if the upper limit of heavy commercial vehicles in the
city is 100-200 vehicles per station? The solution is to further lower the area
code of the car. Second, we need to appropriately change the vehicle model
structure. That is to say, they cannot all be commercial vehicles. Large SUVs
are acceptable. Now we are asking people to build as many hydrogen refueling
stations as there are cars. This way, hydrogen refueling stations are
appropriate. We will respond. We need to decide on our car based on its
hydrogenation capacity. A small modification has been made to the 2016 road map.
The 5,000 vehicles in 2020 remain unchanged. The operating vehicles I mentioned
are the actual number of operating vehicles. In 2025, it will be 50,000-100,000
based on 20Pma, depending on local conditions. The key issue now is to turn
50,000-100,000 into 1 million. This requires breaking through the three
bottlenecks I just mentioned, and then serializing the cities together to form a
national chain. Because there is uncertainty in this number, it was originally 1
million in 2030, but now I blurred it into 2030-2035.
Finally, let’s talk briefly about new energy vehicles and intelligence.
Based on these data, China has become the largest consumer of energy. Per capita
consumption in 3 provinces exceeds that of the United States, and 7 provinces
exceed the EU average. According to the Paris Agreement, the temperature rise in
2050 will not exceed 1.5 degrees. The proportion of coal burning in the United
States in the country's energy has decreased by 15%. China's coal and oil will
peak at 720 million tons in 2025 and carbon dioxide will peak in 2030, relying
on a combination of electric vehicles and renewable energy. What is the scale?
It will be more than 50% by 2030. China will definitely arrive early. Combined
with renewable energy, especially distributed renewable energy, the annual
installed photovoltaic capacity is 100 million kW, forming a future integrated
energy and transportation system. We use the large-scale application of electric
vehicles to promote the energy production revolution represented by solar
cells.The plan for 2035 is to usher in a new era of new energy vehicles,
intelligent electric vehicles. In addition to electrification of power, there
are three major revolutions: vehicle intelligence and low-carbon energy. The
four modernizations mentioned now only mention networking, sharing, and electric
We mainly talk about information, not energy. Energy is also connected and
shared. Energy Internet, our electric vehicles can form a mobile information
Internet, and we can form a mobile energy Internet. This needs to be
emphasized.
Finally, looking to the future, new energy vehicles will experience the
two-way parallel development of new energy and intelligence from the initial
stage and enter a new era of new energy electric vehicles.
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