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Solid-state technology promises to be cheaper and charge faster than any battery available today, but no one has really figured out how to make it happen.
Producing a cheaper, safer electric car that can travel 800 kilometers on a single charge is easier said than done. If the automotive industry really wants to build such a car, it needs to make a breakthrough in battery technology.
Scientists in Japan, China and the United States are working hard to find ways to significantly increase the energy storage capacity of batteries so that electric vehicles can have a range comparable to that of a conventional car full of gas.
Currently, this exploration is focused on solid-state technology, which is a radical transformation of the internal structure of the battery to use solid materials instead of flammable liquids to achieve charging and discharging.
The technology promises significant improvements over existing lithium-ion battery packs. Automakers say lithium-ion battery packs have reached their storage capacity and may never be able to provide enough power for long-distance vehicles.
Take Tesla's Supercharger station, for example, which can charge a depleted car to 80% in 30 minutes. If solid-state technology can be mastered, it will further accelerate the demise of internal combustion engine vehicles and potentially shorten the charging time of electric vehicles from several hours to about 10 minutes.
"We can't think of any other way to achieve our goals other than solid-state technology," said Ted Miller, Ford's senior manager of energy storage strategy and research.
Miller has researched a variety of technologies to enhance the capabilities of electric vehicle batteries. “What I can’t predict right now is who will commercialize solid-state technology,” he added.
Solid-state batteries use smaller battery packs to provide more range for electric vehicles
Replacing combustion vehicles with electric vehicles is expected to drive exponential growth in lithium-ion batteries and bring huge returns to companies.
The latest report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) found that electric buses and passenger cars accounted for 440 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion battery demand in 2017. By 2030, this demand is expected to surge to more than 1,500 gigawatt-hours per year.
According to data from UBS Group, the market value of electric vehicle batteries will reach approximately US$84 billion by 2025, while the current market value is approximately US$23 billion.
Before solid-state batteries succeeded
Lithium-ion technology, a standard in mobile phones and personal electronics for decades before making its way into electric vehicles and utility-scale energy storage, uses a liquid electrolyte to transport ions between a positive and negative electrode to charge or discharge a battery. .
Solid-state batteries, as the name suggests, are battery products that use solid materials such as ceramics, glass or polymers to replace liquids. This will reduce the risk of battery fires and allow the battery pack to become smaller and easier to install under car seats.
The researchers hope to pair the solid electrolyte with a lithium metal anode to increase energy density. This not only allows electric vehicles to travel longer distances after being fully charged, but also helps eliminate consumers' concerns about the range of electric vehicles, thereby increasing sales.
However, to achieve all this, a series of difficult problems need to be solved.
The current prototype product has a short service life and a pitifully low conductivity, making it unsuitable for electric vehicles. Not to mention, there are excessive manufacturing costs, and adverse factors such as violent expansion and contraction of materials may occur during charging and discharging.
"When scientists solve one problem, they often exacerbate the impact of another problem," said Kyousheng Ishiguro, executive director of Japan's Lithium-Ion Battery Technology and Evaluation Center (LIBTEC).
"Of all the players, it seems like everyone has solved 1, 2 or 3 of the five most important things, but no one has really solved them all." Fisker Electric Vehicles Chairman and CEO Henrik Fisker offers this explanation.
More than 25 companies, including Toyota, Panasonic and Nissan, have received about $90 million in government funding to accelerate the development of solid-state technology.
China's Qingdao New Energy Research Institute will test the car within 2 years and consider commercializing it by 2025; China's largest battery manufacturer CATL has also added solid-state batteries to its advanced battery research.
South Korea's Samsung SDI, SK Innovation and Hyundai Motor have all stated that they are studying this technology; the British company Dyson, which has started to build electric vehicles, has also targeted solid-state batteries.
“As for passenger cars, we should see prototypes in the early 2020s,” said Andreas Hintennach, head of battery research at Daimler.
Volkswagen plans to start trial production with its partner QuantumScape as early as 2022.
The timelines given by the above companies may prove their positive and optimistic attitude towards this technology. But Sam Jaffe, general manager of Boulder and an industry consultant, said: "In fact, if you want to make this type of battery work, companies will face a cruel battlefield, and no company has won yet. The certainty.”
James Frith, an analyst at BNEF in London, believes that solid-state batteries with all the above advantages will not be available until the late 2020s, and even then, their pricing may still be on the high side.
As for Tesla, the company says it regularly talks to developers and evaluates battery prototypes, but has not found a technology that is better than existing lithium-ion battery packs.
Its Model S can travel about 539 kilometers on a single charge. "We have tried our best. If there is a better technology, the company is willing to try it, but we have not found a better option yet." Tesla CTO Steward JB Straubel said at an annual conference.
Tesla supplier Panasonic said it will continue to research solid-state technology, although there are "many obstacles before achieving commercialization."
Toyota's potential and its rivals
Taking into account the capabilities of its competitors, the company's manufacturing capabilities and its patent data, the best hope for a breakthrough may lie with Toyota.
Over the past 10 years, Toyota has sent as many as 200 employees to develop solid-state battery technology, mainly at the Higashi Fuji Research Institute near Mount Fuji.
Asia's largest car company has at least 233 patents or applications related to solid-state technology. According to Bloomberg analysis, its number exceeds its competitors by nearly three times.
Toyota made progress using solid-state batteries to power digital clocks, two-wheeled scooters and conveyor belts, then tested the technology in a modified version of its single-seat, low-speed COMS vehicle.
"For researchers, this car is more of an incentive than just a means of transportation," said LIBTEC's Kyouo Ishiguro.
Not only that, according to Toyota's annual report released in October 2018, the company will invest 1.5 trillion yen ($13.9 billion) in the battery business and plans to commercialize solid-state technology in the early 2020s.
Ford Motor Co said Toyota's main rivals are likely to be a group of U.S. start-ups as many existing electric vehicle battery makers focus on boosting production and cutting costs.
Considering this possibility, in 2018, Volkswagen invested US$100 million to increase its stake in QuantumScape. QuantumScape was founded by former Stanford University researchers and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Ionic Materials, based in Woburn, Mass., is backed by Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy, as well as venture capital funds from Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors.
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