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Is the next generation of lithium 3400mah 3.7v 18650 battery technology just a mirage?

Batteries are the hope of almost all new energy industries. Various electronic devices and electric vehicles need batteries. Battery technology and cost are the key to the marketization and popularization of these new energy products. Lithium-ion batteries are the mainstream of current battery technology, but many start-ups are now betting on the so-called next generation of new battery technology. However, whether it has the conditions for commercialization has caused experts to question its prospects.

MIT Technology Review reported that the US Department of Energy's Advanced Research Program for Alternative Energy, ARpA-E, sponsored 75 energy storage studies and obtained many forward-looking results. Its director Ellen Williams also optimistically told the media, "We have reached the holy grail (expanded capacity) in the field of batteries." However, the report believes that small, low-cost energy storage is still full of variables.

Now many start-ups are getting closer and closer to producing economically efficient, safe, small, high-density energy, and equipment with a storage cost of less than $100 per kilowatt-hour. Energy storage technology at this price can solve the problem of wind and solar power, and can also make electric vehicles lighter and cheaper.

But the commercialization goal is still far away. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk was forced to admit that lithium-ion battery technology is being improved incrementally rather than in a big leap forward. In fact, many researchers believe that energy storage should go beyond the lithium-ion battery technology that has attracted market attention in the past 10 years, and that new chemistry and new physical forms should compete with lithium-ion batteries. In May this year, the U.S. Department of Energy held a seminar entitled "Beyond Lithium Ion", which is the 9th this year.

SolidEnergySystems founder Hu Qichao has developed a lithium metal battery with a metal anode instead of the graphite material used in traditional lithium-ion battery anodes, which can greatly improve the energy density of current electronic devices. The report believes that the most important obstacle to the development of new systems is the process of moving from concept to product, which is particularly difficult in the battery field because when you improve one aspect, it is equivalent to compromising other aspects.

In addition, energy storage research also has multiple problems, such as foam batteries, flow batteries, and various chemical materials. No one knows which technology will attract the most funding and research enthusiasm. LuxResearch report pointed out that the investment in energy storage exceeds 4 billion US dollars. In the past eight years, non-lithium-ion battery startups have only received an average of 40 million US dollars in funding to develop the next generation of batteries. Tesla invested 5 billion US dollars in the Gigafactory to produce lithium-ion batteries.

The threshold for developing new battery materials is very high. Just to build a small production line to put the research details into production, it will cost 500 million US dollars. Automakers may have to spend several years testing new battery systems before deciding whether to purchase them. If your company only has 5 million US dollars a year, it is difficult to invest 500 million US dollars in manufacturing.

Even if new battery manufacturers commercialize new technologies, they will face the problem of increasing production and finding buyers. LeydenEnergy, A123Systems, Seeo, and Sakti3 all failed because the production and price factors did not meet the expectations of investors. The world's three largest battery manufacturers, Samsung, LG, and Panasonic, are not very interested in new chemistry and major changes in battery technology. They would rather make incremental improvements on existing technologies.

Although the first lithium-ion battery was invented as early as the 1970s, the technology has become better and better now. This is what startups that innovate battery technology are most reluctant to mention and is also the biggest problem they face.

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