▌Automotive electrification is the main source of demand for power
batteries. In 2017, global new energy vehicle sales exceeded 1.223 million
units, an increase of 58% over 2016, pushing global new energy vehicle sales to
account for more than 1% of total global vehicle sales for the first time. Since
2012, the production and sales of new energy vehicles at home and abroad have
continued to grow rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 54% in the past five
years. As of the end of 2017, the global cumulative sales of new energy vehicles
have reached nearly 4 million units, accounting for 0.3% of the global vehicle
population. Among them, China’s cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have
exceeded 1.6 million units, accounting for 42% of the global cumulative total.
Excluding China Major markets also include the United States, Japan, and
European countries such as Norway and Germany. The cumulative sales of the top
ten consumer countries account for 93% of the global total. Domestic new energy
vehicle production and sales increased from less than 10,000 units in 2011 to
nearly 800,000 units in 2017, with a six-year compound growth rate of more than
100%. In 2017, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales increased by
more than 50% year-on-year, and have continued to maintain growth since 2018.
High growth. In the first seven months, domestic new energy vehicle production
and sales exceeded 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 80%,
accounting for more than 3% of total domestic vehicle sales. The trend of
vehicle electrification has become clear. According to the power source and
cruising range of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles can be divided into
mild hybrid electric vehicles (with less charge and the main function is to
reduce start-stop fuel consumption), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles ( PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Pure
electric vehicles can be divided into low-end (less than 250km), mid-range
(250~380km) and high-end electric vehicles (more than 380km) according to the
length of their cruising range. Generally speaking, the cruising range of pure
electric vehicles is determined by the amount of electricity carried by the car.
, 1kWh of electricity can drive the car for 5-7km. As the main source of power
for electric vehicles, power batteries are the biggest beneficiary of vehicle
electrification. Benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of the new energy
vehicle industry, the shipment volume of power batteries has been rising
steadily, and its proportion in lithium battery applications has increased
rapidly. In 2017, total global lithium battery shipments reached 148.1GWh, of
which total power battery shipments reached 62.35GWh. Energy storage battery
shipments also grew rapidly, with energy storage battery shipments reaching
10.4GWh in 2017. Since 2014, the compound growth rate of power batteries and
energy storage batteries has reached 80% and 77% respectively. The compound
growth rate of traditional consumer batteries is only 7%. The new demand in the
lithium battery industry will be dominated by power batteries and energy storage
batteries. . Domestic lithium battery shipments also show a similar trend.
Before 2013, small battery shipments accounted for more than 90%. By 2017, the
proportion of power batteries and energy storage batteries had reached 55%.
▌The switching of driving forces for new energy vehicles will not change
the high growth of the battery industry. Cost-effectiveness determines the
process of vehicle electrification. Battery cost is the key driver. As a mass
consumer product, cost-effectiveness is the fundamental factor that determines
its technical route. Compared with fuel vehicles, the differences between
electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles mainly include the following
aspects: Structurally, electric vehicles use power batteries to replace fuel
engines, and the powertrain system of fuel vehicles is simplified, and the cost
difference also comes from this; In terms of performance, due to the low energy
density of power batteries and limited fast charging capabilities, the cruising
range and charging experience of electric vehicles are still inferior to those
of fuel vehicles. However, as the charge capacity of electric vehicles
increases, "range anxiety" has become larger. In order to alleviate; In terms of
cost, since the cost of power batteries is still high, the purchase cost of
electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles. At the same time, the
use cost of electric vehicles is lower. The advantage depends on the annual
driving distance and the fuel price/electricity price ratio. We built a model to
study the purchase cost and total cost of ownership (TCO) of different models.
Under baseline conditions, the purchase cost of an ordinary fuel vehicle is
196,000 yuan, the purchase cost of an electric vehicle of the same grade is
246,000 yuan, and the battery cost is 1,500 yuan/kWh (tax included); the
operating life is 8 years, and the vehicle is driven 15,000 times per year.
kilometers, and the residual value of the vehicle is 60,000 yuan and 40,000 yuan
respectively. During the operation period, the TCO of fuel vehicles and electric
vehicles were 213,000 yuan and 248,000 yuan respectively. In comparison, the
purchase cost of fuel vehicles is still more competitive, and the fuel cost of
electric vehicles still has obvious advantages despite relatively high
electricity prices. The cost of batteries has a very obvious impact on the TCO
and purchase price of electric vehicles. When other factors remain unchanged,
when the battery price drops to 900-1,000 yuan/kWh, the TCO of electric vehicles
is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles. Ordinary passenger car consumers
will be more motivated to purchase new energy vehicles. When the battery cost
further drops below 700 yuan/kWh, the purchase cost of pure electric vehicles
can compete with fuel vehicles, and their penetration rate will enter a stage of
accelerated growth. . Based on this, we divide the development stages of
electric vehicles into the "pre-TCO parity" stage, the TCO parity stage and the
purchase cost parity stage. In the pre-TCO parity stage, as costs were still
uncompetitive, the rapid growth of electric vehicles in the past few years was
mainly driven by policies, especially subsidy policies. At this time, the
industry was in a subsidy-driven period; with the decline in battery costs, The
TCO of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is constantly approaching. In some
application scenarios, electric vehicles even have a TCO cost advantage. At this
time, using some non-subsidized industrial policies to push up the cost of fuel
vehicles can further increase the penetration rate of electric vehicles. At this
time, the industry is driven by policy pressure; once the battery cost breaks
through the critical point, the purchase cost of electric vehicles will take
advantage, and the industry will also transition to a consumption-driven stage.
The internal reason for the driving force switch is the rapid decline in power
battery costs and the continued enhancement of the cost competitiveness of
electric vehicles. The external reason is the adjustment of industrial
policies.
▌Subsidy policies help new energy vehicles complete the market
introduction. Although the cost of power batteries has dropped rapidly from
1,000$/kWh in 2009 to the current 150~170$/kWh, the purchase cost and full cost
of use of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are still far
away. Higher than traditional fuel vehicles. According to BNEF research, the
cost of a small fuel-powered vehicle in the United States in 2018 was
approximately US$18,000, of which the cost of the powertrain system was
approximately US$5,500, while the cost of the battery system and power system of
an electric vehicle was close to US$12,000. Therefore, the most effective policy
so far remains Mainly direct subsidies - such as China's purchase subsidies for
various models and the US tax credit of US$7,500 per vehicle for car companies
with sales of less than 200,000 vehicles - are used to narrow the cost gap
between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Driven by subsidies and other
related policies, the introduction of new energy vehicles around the world has
been very rapid. In 2012, the global sales of new energy vehicles accounted for
less than 0.2%. By 2017, the market share had risen to 1.26%. Entering 2018,
global new energy vehicles continue to maintain a surge in growth. According to
statistics, global electric vehicle sales reached 760,000 units in the first
half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 69%, and the overall market share
reached 1.6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in major overseas
markets is accelerating. In the first half of the year, European electric
vehicle sales increased by 43% year-on-year, with registrations reaching 185,000
units, and the market share increased to 2.2%. Electric vehicle sales in the
United States also exceeded 100,000 units. , reaching 122,000 vehicles, 53% of
which were pure electric vehicles, with a market share of 1.4%, a year-on-year
increase of 0.3 percentage points. The market introduction of new energy
vehicles in China has gone through three stages and lasted for more than ten
years. Among them, 2003-2008 is the technology verification and science and
technology demonstration project stage. The landmark event is the world's
largest Olympic new energy vehicle demonstration operation carried out at the
Beijing Olympics, with a total of 595 energy-saving and new energy vehicles
invested; the second stage is The first phase of the "Ten Cities, Thousands of
Vehicles" new energy vehicle promotion project from 2009 to 2012, during which
large-scale demonstration operations of new energy vehicles were carried out in
25 pilot cities, promoted a total of 27,000 new energy vehicles; the third phase
It is the second phase of the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” demonstration
project from 2013 to 2015. At the specific policy level, in 2009, the State
Council issued the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan",
which for the first time put forward the policy guidance of "launching national
energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration projects, and the central
government will arrange funds to provide subsidies." In the same year, the
Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the
Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", which
clarified that subsidies will be provided for the purchase of new energy
vehicles in the public service areas of pilot cities. The era of new energy
vehicle subsidies in the public sector has officially arrived. At that time, a
pure electric vehicle could receive up to 60,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy
funds. Plug-in hybrids (default fuel saving rate of more than 40%) could
generally receive 50,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy funds. Pure electric
vehicles The subsidy for buses is as high as 500,000 yuan per vehicle.
Stimulated by strong subsidies, my country's new energy vehicle production and
sales have continued to rise. In 2015, China's new energy vehicle sales reached
330,000 units, accounting for more than 1% of new vehicle sales for the first
time. Global sales of new energy vehicles that year were The proportion exceeds
50%. At this point, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry has
reached an irreversible turning point, and the introduction period has basically
ended. In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country accounted for
2.6% of the total vehicle sales. In the first seven months of 2018, the
proportion was as high as 2.84%. The penetration rate of China's new energy
vehicles has reached the forefront of the world.
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