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　　Lithium Market Research: The Dilemma of Overcapacity

　　If you want to say which metal element can serve as an aerospace-grade alloy at present and even in the future, then the lithium element has to be mentioned here.

　　The first lithium ore was discovered by Brazilians on a small island in Sweden. After he accidentally threw some unknown ore into the fire, the fire glowed with crimson flames. Later, John August Avvidsson of Stockholm analyzed and studied this phenomenon and concluded that it contained a previously unknown metallic element, and named it lithium.

　　Lithium (Li) is a silver-white metallic element. Its physical properties are soft, extremely small in density and the potential can reach the most negative state. In addition, its chemical properties are also very active. It exists in the form of compounds in solid lithium ores and salt lake brine mines, without natural lithium. It is for this reason that lithium is considered to be the lightest and most active metallic element in nature.

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　　Due to this excellent characteristic, lithium can not only be used as a catalyst, initiator, and additive, but can also be used to directly synthesize new materials to improve product performance. Therefore, lithium is not only used in atomic energy, aerospace, and special cutting-edge industries, but is also widely used in high-tech fields such as metallurgy, electronics, glass ceramics, petrochemicals, batteries, rubber, steel, machinery, and medical care, as well as in traditional industrial fields. It became the energy metal of the 21st century.

　　Since lithium has a complete industrial grading system, an industrial chain has been formed from upstream salt lakes and ores to midstream lithium products, and then downstream involving traditional industries, new materials, new energy and other fields.

　　From an upstream perspective, the sources of lithium are mainly salt lakes and rock mines. The rock minerals are granitic pegmatite deposits, which mainly include spodumene and lepidolite. Salt lakes around the world are mostly distributed in South American countries such as Chile and Argentina. Spodumene mines in rock minerals are mainly distributed in Australia, Canada, Zimbabwe, Zaire, Brazil and China. Lepidolite mines are mainly distributed in Zimbabwe, Canada, the United States, Mexico and China. Among them, spodumene from rock minerals is the most lithium-rich and suitable raw material for industrial utilization. It is also the solid lithium ore that is currently mainly developed and industrially applied in the world.

　　From the midstream perspective, according to the production process and product chain of lithium products, the lithium industry can be divided into two sub-sectors: basic lithium products and deep-processed lithium products. Among them, basic lithium products are mainly extracted from ores or brine, including industrial grade lithium carbonate, lithium chloride and lithium hydroxide. Deeply processed lithium products are follow-up products formed by deep processing of basic lithium products. Currently, they include dozens of products such as metallic lithium, butyllithium, catalyst-grade lithium chloride, battery-grade lithium carbonate, and lithium fluoride.

　　From a downstream perspective, lithium product applications involve the derivation of basic lithium products and deeply processed lithium products. The scope of direct application of basic lithium products is small, and their uses are mainly additives in the production process of traditional glass and metallurgical industries. Deeply processed lithium products will be produced based on the special technical and performance requirements of new downstream products and have a very wide range of uses. In particular, the promotion of the production and application of deeply processed lithium products is an important foundation and driving force for the future development of the lithium industry. At present, the demand for deep-processed lithium products is focused on medicine, batteries, petrochemicals and new building materials. Among them, lithium batteries for new energy vehicles are the main application in the lithium industry, and the global market share is close to about 50%.

　　In 1974, the total proven reserves of global lithium resources were only 1.6 million tons, most of which were pegmatite lithium resources, and brine lithium resources accounted for only 2%. However, with the discovery of salt lake brine lithium resources, global lithium resource reserves began to increase hundreds of times. By 2018, the total proven reserves of global lithium resources had grown to 53 million tons, and brine lithium resources accounted for 10% of the total lithium resource reserves. The proportion also increased from 2% to 70%. Due to the large number of discoveries of brine lithium resources and the substantial growth of global proven reserves of lithium resources, in the context of the development of new energy vehicles, biomedicine and new materials in recent years, sufficient guarantee has been provided for the production of lithium products.

　　At present, the most economically developed lithium resources are mainly located in Chile, Argentina, Australia and China in South America. These four countries account for 95% of the global supply of lithium raw materials. Among them, global lithium resource supply is in the hands of international giants such as Talison (51% equity and ALB 49% equity), SQM, Reed Industrial Minerals, Albemarle, Galaxy and Orocobre. The top five manufacturers supply nearly 80%. For downstream lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the top five suppliers are Albemarle, SQM, Ganfeng Lithium and FMC, accounting for a total of approximately 73%. Generally speaking, global lithium resources are monopolized by a few giants.

　　At this stage, in the field of global lithium resource use, glass and ceramic applications account for 28%, batteries (energy storage lithium batteries 1%, 3C lithium batteries 12%, power lithium batteries 30%) account for 43%, and grease applications account for 43%. 9%, and other industrial applications account for 20%. From the perspective of application structure distribution, the lithium 18650 battery 3.7v 2200mahindustry has become the most important field of lithium resource application. With the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles in the future, the application proportion of lithium electric vehicles will increase significantly. It is expected that by 2022, the proportion of lithium in 18650 battery 3.7v 2200mahapplications will reach 72%.

　　Since 2000, the lithium industry has experienced two rounds of price cycle fluctuations. The first cycle was from 2005 to 2009, and the second cycle is from 2015 to the present. As the main raw material for lithium 18650 battery 3.7v 2200mahmanufacturing, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from US$2,000/ton in 2000 to a peak of US$24,000, benefiting from the impact of the 3C electronics era from 2005 to 2009 and the power 18650 battery 3.7v 2200mahera since 2015. USD/ton, the price has tripled, becoming a veritable “precious metal”.

　　However, the sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices has driven relevant global companies to actively expand production on a large scale, resulting in oversupply due to the rapid release of lithium production capacity, which has ultimately led to a decline in lithium carbonate prices since the beginning of 2018. After a year of adjustments, the supply and demand structure began to gradually improve. Although the price decline of lithium carbonate has been relatively small so far, it is still falling. However, looking at the lithium production capacity in 2018, the four companies ALB, SQM, FMC and ORC have a production capacity of 155,000 tons. The production capacity is expected to increase to 280,000 tons in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 30%, which is still larger than the lithium carbonate market. The growth rate of demand.

　　Faced with the continued decline in lithium prices, most companies' production and sales ratios have declined, and their cash flow conditions have deteriorated. At the same time, some companies are also facing high debt maturity and difficulties in refinancing. Among them, high-cost projects are experiencing production reductions, production suspensions, and even bankruptcy reorganizations. . Overall, the lithium industry has entered the stage of reducing overcapacity and destocking. Therefore, in the future, the overall popularization process of the global new energy vehicle industry will be needed to promote changes.

　　Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460): The world's third largest and China's largest lithium compound manufacturer and the world's largest metal lithium manufacturer. It has the production capacity of more than 40 kinds of lithium compounds and metal lithium products in five categories. It is a supplier of lithium series products. One of the most complete manufacturers. Affected by the continued decline in global lithium prices, the company's gross profit margin dropped from approximately 40% in 2017 to 23% in the third quarter of 2019. At present, its salt lake project is put into production. In 2021, the company's lithium carbonate raw material will be switched to salt lake brine. The cost is expected to drop by 25%, which is expected to improve performance.

　　(002466): The world's leading supplier of new energy materials with lithium as its core. Affected by the continued decline in global lithium prices and the lithium industry entering the stage of reducing production capacity and inventory, the company incurred US$3.5 billion in debt due to the acquisition of SQM in 2018, which resulted in a significant increase in financial expenses that year, dragging down performance. At present, the company is preparing to reduce debt through allotment of shares, issuance of bonds, or cash dividends from giant lithium manufacturers that hold shares. In addition, although the gross profit margin dropped from 70% in 2017 to 60%, it can still be maintained at a high level thanks to cost advantages.

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