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What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The key to the technical bottleneck is the cr2032 3v lithium battery!
What this industry lacks most is not money, but mature technology and an operating team that can operate commercially.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the contradictions in market-oriented mass production caused by the promotion and application of fuel vehicle technology and the huge initial cost investment, are mainly concentrated in the electric vehicle sector with lithium batteries as the kinetic energy, which is relatively mature and commercially mass-produced. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be divided into three aspects: technology, resources, and policies.
The key to the technical bottleneck is the cr2032 3v lithium battery
Whether in China or the world, there are very mature technical support and manufacturing systems for shell manufacturing and vehicle assembly, so there is no need to worry too much. For new energy vehicles, although it is relatively easy to develop consumption habits, if the problems of long charging time and short cruising range cannot be solved, then compared with the fast refueling and dense stations of traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles may lose their new market status.
From the perspective of market promotion, the "cr2032 3v lithium battery replacement station" can well solve the problems of cr2032 3v lithium battery life and charging time, and can also perform professional maintenance on the cr2032 3v lithium battery. But there are three major problems ahead:
First, the construction cost of the site itself is very huge, and the cr2032 3v lithium battery requires professional maintenance. What kind of capital parties can the cr2032 3v lithium battery manufacturer cooperate with to achieve this?
Second, when consumers buy a car, the cr2032 3v lithium battery module in the whole vehicle is equivalent to paying a deposit for leasing. This part of the investment may take 3 to 10 years to recover. What kind of company can bear such a risk?
Third, the current cr2032 3v lithium battery standards have not yet been unified. Just like the earliest mobile phones, there is no standard module and unified interface. What kind of company can have such foresight and R&D capabilities to formulate and lead the standards?
Therefore, the most realistic solution at present is still to focus on fast charging and increasing cr2032 3v lithium battery life.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three-electric system" (cr2032 3v lithium battery, motor, and electronic control) is very important, and the cr2032 3v lithium battery is the foundation and determining factor. For the lithium-ion cr2032 3v lithium battery with the largest commercial mass production at present, if you want to achieve fast charging, you need to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant increase in cr2032 3v lithium battery life, you need to increase the energy density. It is worth noting that nickel cobalt manganese oxide has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, all of which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-lasting cr2032 3v lithium battery technology.
At the same time, the negative impact of safety performance cannot be underestimated. For example, after the explosion of Samsung mobile phones, major airports have adopted more stringent regulations on the carrying and use of lithium-ion batteries. The core problem is that the capacity density and safety performance of the cr2032 3v lithium battery itself are difficult to achieve the most effective combination, and there is no essential breakthrough at present. Even graphene, which was once very popular, is difficult to achieve large-scale commercial mass production within three to five years.
The core of resource troubles is lithium cobalt
In the past three years, the price of basic lithium salts has risen dramatically. From the end of 2014 to 2017, it rose from less than 40,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, and fell back to about 150,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price of cr2032 3v lithium battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen by about 4 to 5 times.
At the same time, the situation of cobalt also looks a bit crazy. Data shows that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400% increase between 2006 and 2008, and also experienced a nearly 50% increase under quantitative easing between 2009 and the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation released by the British Metal Bulletin (MB) reached US$29/pound, but there is still more than 65% room from the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
Is the price surge caused by resource scarcity? The answer is no.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude in the world, such as the Andes Plateau in South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Australia and Chile together control 75% of the world's lithium resources.
In my country, 90% of lithium resources are distributed in the west. Currently, the main mining is lithium ore (spodumene and lithium mica) with a low average grade (0.8%-1.4%, lower than 1.465%-3.55% abroad). The brine contains a high magnesium content (Mg/Li ratio is generally greater than 40, and the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile is only 6.47), so it is difficult to use on an industrial scale.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are abundant and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, accounting for about 80% of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but 5 of them are controlled by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67% of the cobalt resources in the producing mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Freeport, Kazakhstan's Eurasian Natural Resources, UAE's Shalina Resources, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The cobalt production capacity in other parts of the world is not enough to shake the dominant position of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
With the improvement of industrial scale utilization and breakthroughs in extraction technology, based on the principle that metal elements such as lithium and cobalt do not disappear, the lithium cr2032 3v lithium battery recycling industry has quietly emerged, and recycling has become a reality. The demand for natural resources will be reduced accordingly. The crazy rise in the short term is like the history of iron ore. It is more the result of international capital control speculation and cannot fully reflect the real situation of industrial development.
The key to policy concerns lies in subsidies
It is necessary to clarify a basic understanding: the essence of the state's subsidies for new energy vehicles is to support an industry, create first-mover advantages, and quickly expand the market, rather than subsidies similar to traditional agricultural sectors, the purpose of which is to maintain the stability of the basic market. Therefore, in the near future, the subsidy policy will definitely be cancelled.
The current policy subsidy orientation is generally focused on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, aligning with international standards, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through environmental bottlenecks, advocating green travel, leveraging large and medium-sized cities, highlighting the responsibility of a major country, relying on the "Belt and Road Initiative", and seizing overseas markets.
Specifically in terms of corporate production and operation and product sales, the current sales of pure electric vehicles seem to be growing slowly or even declining, which is greatly related to the extension of their delivery period to more than 6 months. The problem it reflects is that the actual production capacity of power batteries is very limited. On the existing technical route, although related companies have also invested in cr2032 3v lithium battery factories and basic lithium salt (mainly lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide) projects, the planning, demonstration, design, approval, construction, and production cycle of industrial projects, especially the chemical industry in which basic lithium salts are located, is generally 1-2 years, and large-scale release of production capacity should be before 2020.
The demand for the terminal automobile market related to this has not eased for a moment, as can be seen from the numbering situation of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (such as Beijing's numbering has been as far as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no cr2032 3v lithium battery capacity limit, pure electric vehicle sales can easily exceed plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has vigorously supported the development of new energy vehicles and has achieved its goal. The key to the current development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new cars in China by 2025, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota also said that it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's cr2032 3v lithium battery R&D and production center has moved from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW has also chosen Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
It can be said that this is the best era for new energy vehicles. The new forces are coming in full force, and a large amount of capital has intervened in various ways in mines, basic lithium salts, electrode materials, cr2032 3v lithium battery production and vehicle manufacturing, and is committed to seizing the initiative. Traditional bigwigs have also suddenly woken up and are working hard to consolidate their base and expand into new areas. In a nutshell, what this industry lacks most is not money, but mature technology that can be applied in the market and an operation team that can operate commercially.
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