Clean energy visionaries have long argued that a better battery is needed
that could reassure skeptical consumers about electric vehicle sales and allow
the grid to better tap into renewable energy. However, for at least the next
decade, future batteries will be based on legacy technology.
Lithium-ion batteries have already taken an overwhelming lead in the
battery market, and rival technologies may find it difficult to catch up. That
lead will expand as planned new lithium-ion battery production plants come
online over the next five years.
The mass production of batteries by new battery factories in China, the
United States, Thailand and other countries will further drive down prices.
Since 2010, lithium-ion battery prices have plummeted by 85%. And the billions
of dollars invested in building and operating battery production plants will
continue to improve lithium-ion battery technology, rather than using other
battery technologies to provide powerful power.
Many start-ups are now focusing on technological upgrades of lithium-ion
batteries. "We don't see disruption to lithium-ion battery development," said
Erik Terjesen, senior director of licensing and strategy at Ionic Materials.
Headquartered in Massachusetts, Terjesen is one of several companies working to
develop and perfect solid-state battery technology.
But Ionic Materials' design is not to replace lithium-ion batteries, but to
improve them. Instead, the company designed polymer electrolytes that can be
used within existing lithium batteries. This means battery production plants can
use it without adding new equipment. "Given all the investment in lithium-ion,
we don't believe people are abandoning this battery technology and starting
development again," Terjesen said.
The world's first lithium-ion battery was invented by an ExxonMobil
researcher in the 1970s and commercialized by Sony in 1991. It has been used for
decades. Lithium-ion batteries work by transporting charged lithium atoms or
ions through a liquid electrolyte, flowing between the positive and negative
electrodes. And using different materials in the cathode cobalt, nickel and
manganese to increase energy storage capacity. Products that first appeared in
consumer electronics, such as mobile phones, can now find their way into
electric vehicles and have applications on the electrical grid.
Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage research at Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, said: "Lithium-ion batteries are versatile, so when their cost becomes
lower, it opens up more areas of demand." According to the company's survey
data, lithium-ion batteries Prices for the group averaged $1,160 per kWh in
2010, fell to $176 per kWh in 2018, and may fall below $100 in 2024. Continued
declines in lithium-ion battery prices and improving performance could open up
new markets.
Some people aren't convinced that lithium-ion batteries can do it all. Some
automakers are hoping to develop a breakthrough technology that allows
long-range electric vehicles to charge up to 500 miles, which will finally
convince skeptical consumers that electric vehicles will not run out of juice on
the road. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. has more patents and patent
applications than any other company in solid-state batteries and has invested
$13.9 billion to develop its battery business.
Storing more renewable energy requires better battery technology. Although
manufacturers like Tesla Inc. and Dynegy Inc. have begun connecting lithium-ion
battery energy storage systems to the grid, these energy storage systems
typically only provide power for a maximum of four hours. Former U.S. Energy
Secretary Ernest Moni said in an interview with industry media in February this
year that short-term energy storage systems will not help integrate large
amounts of renewable energy. "These energy storage systems cannot sustainably
provide power for a day, a week, a month, a quarter, and that's why different
battery technologies need to be developed," said Moniz, who recently co-authored
a report calling for more work on batteries. investment in research.
Many battery alternatives, from flywheel energy storage to flow battery
technology, have failed to achieve greater success, while lithium-ion batteries
are increasingly being used. The flow battery developed by California-based
Primus Power can generate 25kW of electricity and last for 5 hours. Tom Stepien,
the company's chief executive, said improvements to the current design could
increase power time to seven to eight hours. When more power is needed, flow
batteries can be achieved by using more liquid electrolytes.
Stepien said metaphorically, "You can say that lithium batteries are
sprinters, while flow batteries are marathon runners." But Stepien admitted that
it is difficult to convince potential customers to adopt battery technology that
they are not so familiar with. PrimusPower has deployed 30 flow battery energy
storage systems so far, mainly in the past three years. Stepien said, "Lithium
batteries are easier to deploy and every user will do it."
Long-duration energy storage has attracted entrepreneurs who insist there
is room for significant improvements in lithium-ion batteries, not just
incremental gains.
Berdichevsky, co-founder and CEO of Sila Nanotech, said the company
developed technology that could increase the energy storage of lithium-ion
batteries by 20% or more.
"I think lithium-ion batteries can dominate the energy storage market, but
they have to enter new chemistries to do that," he said.
The silicon-based powder developed by Sila can be made into anodes for
lithium-ion batteries. At an atomic level, silicon can hold more lithium than
the carbon in graphite, the most common anode material, meaning batteries using
Sila products can store more energy. The company has invested approximately $125
million to date and entered into a partnership with the BMW Group to develop the
technology.
Berdichevsky said any competitor offering a completely different battery
architecture would have a hard time entering the market as battery manufacturers
build new factories and battery costs continue to fall. Driven by increased
electric vehicle production, global lithium-ion battery production capacity has
nearly tripled in the past five years, according to a survey by Bloomberg New
Energy Finance. The current capacity is 302.2GWh, with an additional 603.8GWh
battery factory planned to be operational within the next five years.
Berdichevsky said, "The efficiency and scale of battery production scale is
incredible. It is a lot of investment, we can develop and harness these
technologies, and I believe that lithium-ion batteries will have a brighter
future."
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