New energy vehicles are currently a hot topic. In the declining auto
market, sales reached 1.256 million vehicles last year, a year-on-year increase
of 61.7%, unrivaled. According to predictions, by 2020, China's total sales of
new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units, of which production and sales in
2020 will reach 2 million units. A very simple calculation question, as many new
energy vehicles as there are, there are as many power batteries to drive them.
If this is used as a standard, recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries
seems to be a good business. The opportunity has come. Calculated based on the
service life of power batteries of 5-8 years. Calculated from the point when my
country's new energy vehicles entered the rapid growth channel in 2014, the
first batch of large-scale power batteries are close to their end of life, and
this year It is considered by the industry to be the first year of the explosion
of domestic power battery recycling. According to predictions from the China
Automotive Technology and Research Center, by 2020, the cumulative scrap volume
of electric vehicle power batteries in my country will reach 120,000-170,000
tons, and its market size will exceed 30 billion yuan by 2022. A more
embarrassing reality is that in the face of the surging wave of power battery
scrapping, the market has not yet established a complete recycling network to
make up for this ecological shortcoming. Battery manufacturers, car companies
and even professional battery manufacturers in the industry chain Recycling
companies haven't quite figured out how to dig up this gold mine. The "dead
cycle" of power battery recycling. Power batteries are trapped in an "dead
cycle". In addition to new energy vehicles as a new thing, which has not yet
formed a complete ecological closed loop, there are also the following reasons:
1. The technical threshold is not limited by who wants to recycle it. For the
recycling and utilization of power batteries, there are currently two methods
recognized in the industry, one is echelon utilization, and the other is
disassembly and recycling. From a technical perspective, both approaches have
certain technical thresholds. First of all, echelon utilization refers to
re-testing and screening of recycled power batteries, pairing them into groups,
and using them in areas with lower battery performance requirements such as
energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles. According to industry standards,
the capacity of power batteries is reduced to 80%. The time limit for retirement
is approaching. Although it is no longer suitable for automobiles, it can still
use "waste heat" in other aspects, and there is a lot of room for utilization.
However, when these batteries are reused, it is necessary to detect the
electrochemical performance, life decay and other information of the batteries,
and select batteries with similar data to group them. This can ensure the
consistency of the batteries and the safety of the entire battery system.
However, for a long time, new energy vehicle power batteries have not formed a
unified standard, which has led to the change of power battery categories from
the initial lead-acid batteries, to later nickel-cadmium batteries,
nickel-hydrogen batteries, and now to the current ternary lithium batteries.
There are so many, how to unify these batteries with different standards and
different technical structures is not a simple matter. Secondly, power batteries
with a capacity below 40% must enter the disassembly and recycling process. In
theory, valuable metal elements such as nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium
salts can be disassembled from retired power batteries and recycled into the
manufacture of new batteries. Similar to step-by-step utilization, dismantling
and recycling also has to face the situation of different brands and different
types of batteries. Among them, the internal structure design of the battery,
the series and parallel group form, the length of service and use time, the
application model and the common working conditions are different. The
disassembly plans must also be divided into categories, and the difficulty is
not ordinary. 2. From a market perspective, if the profit of power battery
recycling is high enough, the so-called technical threshold will definitely be
leveled by capital, but the shameful reality is that before the scale effect is
formed, the Before the scale effect, power battery recycling was still a "losing
money" business. According to relevant reports, the most popular wet recycling
method currently costs about 8,500 yuan for one ton of lithium iron phosphate
batteries, but the price of recycled materials such as nickel, cobalt,
manganese, and rare earth elements extracted from the battery cells is only
8,100 yuan. , which also means that the recycling company has to "refund" 400
yuan. In comparison, the dismantling and recycling profits of ternary lithium
batteries are slightly better. However, since ternary power batteries are just
completed iterative products and have only been put into use on a large scale in
the past two years, the scrapping of this type of batteries is The deadline is
still some time away. The unprofitable dilemma corresponds to the reality that
the power battery recycling market is stagnant. 3. The residual value is too
low, and car owners are "reluctant to sell" and are in a deadlock. Power battery
recycling companies lack motivation, so are car owners willing to push power
batteries into recycling channels? The reality is that the value retention rate
of new energy vehicles is not high, and it only lasts for one year. new car, the
price of the car will depreciate by half. Used cars can’t be sold at a high
price, let alone retired batteries. From the perspective of car owners, the
power battery is the most expensive core component of a car. The huge price
difference between new and old batteries makes car owners less willing to retire
old batteries. While hoping to buy at a low price, while hoping to sell at a
high price, power battery recycling has reached a deadlock at the source. In
addition, a noteworthy detail is that from a time perspective, it is correct
that this year and next will be the climax of the retirement of the first batch
of power batteries. However, according to sales statistics, the total sales of
new energy vehicles nationwide from 2010 to 2013 was less than 50,000. This
means that the total number of scrapped power batteries in the first batch is
limited. It’s hard to make a meal without rice, and without sufficient recycling
targets, it will naturally take time for the power battery recycling market to
fully open. How to break the situation? Power battery recycling does face many
obstacles at the current time point, but it is unavoidable that due to
environmental protection and energy saving considerations, these retired
batteries must enter recycling channels. From a market perspective, power
battery recycling itself will not be the best in the future. It is also of great
economic value. The problem that needs to be solved now is how to regulate the
behavior of all parties in the industrial chain and establish an ecosystem or
business model with clear responsibilities, rights and interests. Intelligent
relativity believes that the following aspects can be considered. 1. Track the
source and ensure that the battery flow is controllable. Since the outflow of
power batteries will indeed cause environmental pollution and certain safety
hazards, mandatory measures must be taken to allow retired batteries to enter
legal recycling channels. If you want to "return the particles to the
warehouse", you can imitate the management model of traditional fuel vehicles,
code the batteries, and then bundle them with the vehicle's VI code and
recycling code. This can ensure that after the batteries are scrapped, their
flow can be controlled. 2. Whoever produces is responsible, and we cannot just
take subsidies but fail to deal with the consequences. As we all know, China's
new energy vehicle market has been matured by policies, and the country's huge
subsidies have become the profit cows of many car companies. If battery
recycling cannot enter the market in a short period of time and is a "dirty" and
"tiring job", then should those car companies or battery manufacturers that have
received subsidies be responsible for the "aftermath" of retired batteries?
Stone can attack jade. Countries such as Germany, the United States, and Japan
have established a very complete power battery recycling system of "who
produces, who is responsible" and use legal forms to fix responsibilities. In
this regard, if information disclosure is adopted, information on all links in
the industrial chain is disclosed to the public, and a nationwide supervision
mechanism is introduced, the development of the industry may be regulated to a
certain extent. 3. Battery replacement mode or outlet The biggest difficulty in
battery recycling is the traceability of the battery. Currently, some car
companies have launched a "battery swap" service that separates the ownership of
the battery and the car, and the car owner obtains it by paying a service fee.
For charging or battery replacement services, since the ownership of the battery
is in the hands of the operator, the tracking and monitoring of the battery are
more controllable. Although the gap between brands is wide and it may be
impractical to establish battery swap stations that serve all models, this
business model is a very good solution.
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