For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it also needs a fixed hydrogen fueling
place, just like a fuel vehicle needs a gas station. Since hydrogen is a
controlled hazardous chemical in China, it is not convenient for ordinary people
to access hydrogen. Lower than exposure to gasoline. The reason why hydrogen
control is so strict is because as long as the volume concentration of hydrogen
in the air is between 4.0% and 75.6%, it will explode when exposed to fire - far
more dangerous than gasoline. It is precisely because of this "life extension
method" that extends from fuel vehicles that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot
allow consumers to complete the charging process at home like electric vehicles,
and the refueling process cannot be done without people aside. Supervision, this
undoubtedly has some "new" aspects compared to electric vehicles. Secondly, a
hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is essentially an electric vehicle. The same thing as
an electric vehicle is that both require a mature three-electric system; the
difference is that it hangs the electric vehicle on the big electric vehicle
under the chassis. The flat battery pack turns into several high-pressure
hydrogen tanks of different volumes, and relies on a fuel cell pack to turn
hydrogen into water and electricity through chemical reactions, and use the
produced electricity to drive the vehicle. Therefore, in terms of working
principle, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is particularly like an extended-range
electric vehicle, except that the gasoline and engine range-extending parts of
the power system of this vehicle have become the hydrogen tank and fuel of the
hydrogen fuel cell vehicle respectively. Battery. This also means that the
performance of the hydrogen fuel cell stack has become the "performance
bottleneck" of this hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. At present, the power design of
the hydrogen fuel cell stack of South Korea's Hyundai Motor's hydrogen fuel cell
vehicle NEXO (picture below) is 120kW The design powers of the hydrogen fuel
cell stacks of Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity are 114kW and 100kW respectively.
In fact, this power level is the current performance limit of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles. If you want to increase the power of the hydrogen fuel cell stack, the
resulting increase in weight and volume will be unbearable for these products. .
But most importantly, the rising costs caused by improving the performance of
hydrogen fuel cell stacks will be the "last brick" that crushes hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles, because current hydrogen fuel cell stack technology relies
heavily on the precious metal "platinum" to produce a chemical reaction between
hydrogen and oxygen. Therefore, there is no so-called high-performance version
of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently provided to private users. This makes
it look closer to a conceptual product than traditional fuel vehicles and
electric vehicles. Now that we are talking about "platinum", we can talk about
the uncertainty that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will bring to them due to their
dependence on this metal. At present, the industrial applications of platinum
mainly come from automobile exhaust purifiers, fuel cell vehicles, flat glass
and other industries. Data from the Internet shows that of the 245 tons of
platinum sold globally in 2010, 113 tons (46%) were used in the production of
automotive catalytic converters; 76 tons (31%) were used in jewelry; and the
remaining 35.5 tons were used in applications. In investment, electrodes,
anti-cancer drugs, oxygen sensors, spark plugs and turbine engines, etc.
Therefore, if fuel cell vehicles begin to be promoted on a large scale, as long
as the basic fuel cell technology is not revolutionaryly optimized, the price of
platinum in the international market will inevitably be pushed up (competing
with fuel vehicles for platinum), thereby reducing our interest in petroleum.
dependence has shifted to reliance on precious metal mineral resources. The
distribution of platinum mines around the world is extremely uneven. According
to online data, South Africa accounts for 82.3% of the world's total platinum
reserves (currently discovered), so this is indeed not a good choice for
countries with scarce mineral resources. information. Therefore, at present,
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are indeed unable to serve as a stand-alone new
energy solution. When competing face-to-face with traditional fuel vehicles and
emerging electric vehicles, the benefits it can bring to manufacturers,
industries and consumers are also negligible. (In fact, no one can make a profit
by manufacturing and selling hydrogen energy vehicles without relying on
subsidies). However, if it is regarded as a "filling gap" product between
traditional fuel vehicles and emerging electric vehicles, its meaning of
existence is relatively clear. For example, we often complain about the serious
pollution caused by traditional fuel buses and trucks, but it is technically
difficult to convince customers to replace all these big polluters with electric
vehicles, because logistics service providers value time like gold. , but you
don’t have the public spirit to let you spend your precious time charging the
mop head. But if hydrogen fuel cell technology is used to solve this problem,
theoretically better results can be achieved: On the one hand, the product form
of large commercial vehicles means that it is not sensitive to the volume and
weight of the hydrogen fuel cell stack, so precious metals can be considered. It
is not so dependent on technical strategies; at the same time, it is convenient
to refill hydrogen fuel and does not need to carry a bulky battery pack, which
also gives hydrogen fuel cell tractors and buses an inherent advantage over pure
electric vehicles. At the same time, the characteristics of hydrogen as an
excellent energy storage medium also mean that it is more suitable for the
energy storage needs of distributed power generation systems than electricity.
After all, with proper storage technology, hydrogen can be stored as reliably as
fossil fuels, but batteries There is no way to do this (it will naturally run
out of power). Therefore, relying on hydrogen as an energy storage medium is a
very good solution in those remote areas. In fact, Toyota and Honda will add
this in the instructions for their hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - when necessary
(Japan has many earthquakes, which can easily lead to regional power outages),
the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle can be used as a small energy station. For use,
the electricity generated can supply a family with emergency supplies for a
certain period of time. In fact, there are already mature cases of direct
utilization of hydrogen in the aerospace field. The rocket used by the United
States every time it launches the space shuttle uses liquid hydrogen and liquid
oxygen fuel (1:6 ratio). This fuel has a higher calorific value than traditional
rocket fuels such as liquid oxygen kerosene and unbiased dimethylhydrazine. , it
also provides a greater specific impulse, so this is also an important factor
that attracts us to hydrogen energy. Based on what has been said above, what Che
Yunji wants to express is: Hydrogen energy, as a form of energy that is clean
enough in terms of results, needs to pay more attention to the energy
consumption and energy consumption caused by the front-end production links and
circulation links in the development process. Environmental pollution, if a
large amount of fossil fuel is wasted in order to produce sufficiently clean
hydrogen, it is very undesirable. At the same time, in the process of promotion
and iteration of hydrogen fuel technology, it cannot be separated from the
traditional fossil fuel system and the newer electric technology system. We must
look for opportunities for it to upgrade the traditional energy system and make
up for the electric system. Possible shortcomings, such as the NIO "nanny car"
that has been making a lot of noise before. If the role of the fuel vehicle in
it is replaced by a fuel cell vehicle, maybe the whole thing will not look so
inconsistent. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a long history of research in
China, but they are extremely niche. Last year, nearly 29 million vehicles were
sold in China, while the total domestic promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
was less than 2,900 units. , can be said to be one in a million. What really
caused widespread concern about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was the Prime
Minister's visit to Japan in the middle of this year. On May 11 this year,
Premier Li Keqiang visited Toyota's Hokkaido factory. During the visit, Toyota
specially displayed a new energy vehicle that represents its highest level of
technology - the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Mirai. In the live pictures of the
day, Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota, played the role of keynote speaker;
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held the Mirai trunk with his hand, his pride
looming; Premier Li Keqiang looked directly into the car, with seriousness
written all over his face. Afterwards, some media interpreted that the Prime
Minister had a "serious expression" when facing Japan's leading new energy
technology. Although there are some elements of exaggeration, it is not
unreasonable - the Mirai displayed by Toyota this time is not only a
mass-produced car, but has also been iterated to the second version, and there
is no hydrogen fuel cell passenger car that has been put into mass production in
China. car. Also in 2018, just past November, domestic sales of pure electric
vehicles reached 138,000 units per month. Compared with the booming trend of
pure electric vehicles, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China
is extremely lagging behind. Seventeen years ago, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
actually had no lower status than pure electric vehicles in China's strategy for
developing new energy vehicles. In 2001, the national "863" major electric
vehicle project was launched. The Ministry of Science and Technology hired 13
experts to form a major special expert group, which proposed a significant
"three vertical and three horizontal" overall route for the development of new
energy vehicles in China. Among them, the "three horizontals" refer to
multi-energy powertrain control systems, motors and their control systems, and
batteries and their management systems, while the "three verticals" refer to
hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. It can be seen
that the top-level design for the development of new energy vehicles seventeen
years ago hoped for the coordinated development of hybrid vehicles, pure
electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, due to various
reasons such as technical difficulty, industrial supporting facilities, emission
regulations, and infrastructure construction, pure electric vehicles stood out
and received further support from policies and markets, reaching the peak of
domestic popularity. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which have the least
foundation, have basically been relegated to the sidelines. After Premier Li
Keqiang inspected Toyota Mirai this year, the industry's attention to hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles increased significantly. One expert is sure to be excited
about this. Among the original thirteen experts on the major new energy vehicle
project, one was in charge of research on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. He was
Wan Gang, the leader of the expert team at that time and the former Minister of
Science and Technology. Among the major projects, Wan Gang, as the first project
leader, undertook the hydrogen fuel cell car project. While pure electric
vehicles are experiencing rapid development, Wan Gang is still emphasizing the
timely development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. After resigning as Minister
of Science and Technology in March this year, Wan Gang made frequent public
appearances - in June and November, Wan Gang spoke out for hydrogen fuel cells
at the "Hydrogen Energy Industry Innovation and Development Forum" and the CPPCC
Biweekly Consultation Symposium. . The most recent time was when Wan Gang
personally published an article of support in the People's Daily. With the
"care" of the Prime Minister and the unsparing support of the former Minister of
Science and Technology, hydrogen fuel cells received multiple peaks of media
attention in 2018. As of December this year, a total of more than 70 hydrogen
fuel cell models have appeared in the domestic "Recommended New Energy Vehicle
Catalog", an increase of more than 200% compared to last year. At the same time,
more than ten cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Hangzhou
have introduced policies to support the development of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles. Data shows that domestic investment plans for hydrogen energy this
year have exceeded 200 billion yuan in hydrogen energy towns and industrial
parks, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, upstream raw material projects, etc.! For a
time, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles came out of the shadows and came to the stage.
So, what are the advantages of the "counterattack" hydrogen fuel cell vehicle?
Battery life and charging beat pure electric vehicles, but sales are
embarrassingly low. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently on the market all
use proton exchange membrane technology, which separates hydrogen into hydrogen
ions and electrons through an electrolyte membrane. The hydrogen ions pass
through the membrane. It combines with oxygen to form water, and the electrons
detour to form directional motion, generating electric current. Cars driven by
this technology can be regarded as a model of environmental protection. The
"exhaust gas" emitted by this car is actually water, which can even be drank
directly. Judging from Mr. Wan Gang's work experience, he obviously has feelings
for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (it is worth mentioning that his major during
school was internal combustion engines), but Wan Gang insists on working for the
surging pure electric wave. The voice of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles includes
not only emotions, but also many in-depth thoughts on technology and industry.
As we all know, although pure electric vehicles are environmentally friendly,
their cruising range and charging time have become common criticisms among
current fuel vehicle owners. At present, the NEDC cruising range of the best
domestic pure electric vehicles is just over 500 kilometers. In order to achieve
this cruising range, vehicles often need to be equipped with 500-600 kilograms
of battery packs. Moreover, because the NEDC battery life test standards are
loosely set, the mileage in actual use is often discounted by 70-20%. If you are
facing high-speed working conditions, the mileage will attenuate even more. In
terms of charging time, even if most pure electric vehicles use fast charging,
it takes 40 minutes to charge the battery to a high capacity (80%) under ideal
circumstances. Not to mention, the vehicle-to-pile ratio of China's new energy
vehicles has just exceeded 4:1, car owners who do not have their own piles often
encounter difficulties in finding piles. Hydrogen fuel vehicles can solve these
two problems well. In terms of battery life, the energy density of hydrogen fuel
is much higher than that of lithium batteries—it is currently 7 times that of
the latter per unit volume. Take Toyota's Mirai as an example. It uses two round
bottles with a total volume of 130L to load only 5 kilograms of hydrogen and
drive a 1.8-ton car body. However, its EPA cruising range has exceeded 500
kilometers, and its efficiency far exceeds that of lithium-ion batteries. On the
issue of charging - for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it is hydrogenation. The
whole process is roughly the same as refueling and only takes 3-5 minutes. For
pure electric vehicles, Tesla's supercharger takes nearly 1.5 hours to fully
charge. Even the speed-competitive battery swapping route has been proven to
actually take 10-20 minutes in NIO's actual operations. It should be noted that
the cruising range (essentially a battery energy density issue) and charging
time issues faced by pure electric vehicles will be difficult to achieve a
breakthrough in the future due to limitations of physical laws. Hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles are a perfect combination of the long range and convenient energy
replenishment of fuel vehicles and the zero emissions of pure electric vehicles.
Therefore, in the eyes of many people in the industry, hydrogen energy vehicles
are the ultimate route for new energy vehicles. Persisting in the development of
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been given strategic significance to seize the
commanding heights of new energy technology. However, even if we look at the
world, the share of hydrogen fuel vehicles in the passenger car market is
pitifully small. The only real hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the market are
Toyota's Mirai, Honda's Clarity, and Hyundai's ix35 (now updated to NEXO). The
total sales last year did not exceed 6,000 units. It can be said that so far,
global car companies’ commercial exploration of hydrogen fuel cell passenger
vehicles has failed. There is no other reason - the benefits of hydrogen fuel
cell cars are not enough to offset their purchase and use costs. Toyota's Mirai
sells for about 350,000 yuan in Japan, and Honda's Clarity sells for more than
400,000 yuan before subsidies. Honda is even afraid that it will be too
expensive to sell, so Honda adopts a rental-only promotion method for some
vehicles. When hydrogenation is needed, Japanese hydrogen fuel cell car owners
will find that there are no more than 100 hydrogenation stations distributed
across Japan, which means that their driving radius is highly restricted. The
long-term cost of using hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles is
not as good as the low electricity price of pure electric vehicles. In terms of
convenience, hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars are not as good as fuel cars or
hybrid cars - Honda's own Accord Hybrid model has an ultimate range of 1,000
kilometers on a tank of fuel, and can be refueled anywhere; compared with
long-term use of a car In terms of cost, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot
compare with economical pure electric vehicles - they are also Japanese new
energy vehicles. The cumulative sales of Nissan's pure electric vehicle Leaf
have exceeded200,000 units. Hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, which were
originally intended to combine the advantages of fuel vehicles and pure electric
vehicles, have shown their disadvantages compared to both, and have been caught
in the middle and struggled to survive. Is the technology of Toyota and Honda
not good enough? Not necessarily. In fact, the hydrogen fuel cell technology
mastered by the two companies can fully meet the needs of industrialization, but
it is not a wise choice to enter the passenger car market as soon as they enter
the market. Hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars cannot be installed at home like
charging piles to replenish hydrogen, so their demand for hydrogen refueling
stations, like gas stations, must be sufficient and dense enough. However, the
transportation and storage costs of hydrogen have remained high. The cost of
building a hydrogen refueling station is five times that of a gas station. With
global sales of less than 6,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles per year, it is
currently a question of whether a hydrogen refueling station can serve 500
vehicles per year. They are generally in a state of loss. If one hydrogen
refueling station is built at a loss, the government and enterprises will
naturally be unwilling to build more hydrogen refueling stations. As a result, a
typical chicken-and-egg problem was born - the relevant parties could not see
the profit expectations of hydrogenation stations, resulting in insufficient
construction of hydrogenation stations; while consumers were bearing the high
price of cars, they also faced the trouble of hydrogenation and could not afford
it. Promote the purchase of hydrogen fuel cell models. It is understandable that
the sales of Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity cannot increase. Commercial vehicles
first - China's road to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Turning back to China,
although the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was included in the plan
in 2001, domestic passenger car companies have limited success in
commercializing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Achievements are currently zero. In
a forum in June, Wan Gang pointed out the gap between domestic and foreign
technologies in terms of technology: 1. The average volume power of domestic car
companies in hydrogen fuel cell stacks is 2KW/L, and Mirai has exceeded 3KW/L.
2. The use of platinum, the key catalyst for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, in the
most advanced foreign technology is only one-fifth of that in China. 3. The most
critical membrane electrode, the service life of foreign products can be three
times that of domestic products - 9,000 hours. 4. Foreign air compressors are
more efficient, which directly affects the efficiency and power output of the
stack. Obviously, it is very difficult to catch up with Japanese technology in
hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, and even if we catch up, we will face a bleak
market. Therefore, when the technology is immature, it is better to slow down
the promotion of hydrogen fuel cells in passenger cars. Combined with the
country’s early experience in promoting pure electric vehicles through public
transportation, a route to develop Chinese-style hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has
emerged—starting with commercial vehicles. At this time, commercial vehicles
have begun to electrify. On the one hand, emission regulations are becoming
increasingly tight, and high-emission diesel engines need to be replaced; on the
other hand, low electricity prices help reduce operating costs. However, the low
energy density of power batteries has become a concern for commercial vehicles.
Take a domestic 30-seat 8-meter pure electric bus as an example. When equipped
with a 95KWh battery, its cruising range is only 115 kilometers. Moreover, when
there is no dramatic breakthrough in battery energy density, stack batteries are
ineffective—most of the increased battery capacity will be used to carry the
battery itself. Therefore, long-distance transportation, which has strict
requirements on cruising range, is currently a restricted area for pure electric
vehicles. This is exactly where hydrogen fuel cells come in. The two
characteristics of commercial vehicles perfectly match their characteristics and
development needs. 1. Commercial vehicles are larger and can carry more
hydrogen, maximizing the advantages of hydrogen’s high energy density and
obtaining ultra-long cruising range. 2. The operating routes and times of
commercial vehicles are usually relatively fixed, and there is no requirement
for the density of hydrogen refueling stations. For cluster business, one
station can meet the needs of a hydrogen fuel cell commercial fleet. At present,
in the domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry environment, commercial
vehicle companies are indeed taking the lead: Yutong and Foton have already
entered the market in small batches of hydrogen fuel cell buses, and SAIC Maxus’
commercial vehicles have started manned trial operations. Dongfeng, FAW, and
Shaanxi Automobile are also building their own hydrogen fuel cell models. This
year, the cumulative number of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in China
has just exceeded 1,200 - a number that seems not worth mentioning. However,
industry insiders analyzed from Chexixi that the current situation of hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles is very similar to the development of pure electric vehicles
in 2011-2012, with commercial vehicles taking the lead, and the maturity of the
underlying infrastructure and industrial chain accelerating. In 2018, 13
hydrogen refueling stations were put into use in China, and 20 more are under
construction. According to the "Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New
Energy Vehicles", 100 hydrogenation stations will be built in China in 2020, and
5,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be launched in the country. In 2025,
50,000 vehicles will be launched, and in 2030, 1 million vehicles will be
launched. At the same time, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and other places have
introduced detailed rules to encourage the development of hydrogen fuel
vehicles. Industry insiders predict that the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles will exceed the target of 5,000 vehicles in 2020. Because in the
upstream of the industry, Weichai, which mainly manufactures commercial vehicle
engines, officially announced its entry into the field of hydrogen fuel cell
vehicle power systems this year; Shanghai's power system that reshapes energy
production has been used in more than 500 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; the
battery stack is key For membrane electrodes, domestic company Hongji Innovation
has added a new production capacity of 100,000 square meters... Entering 2018,
the industrialization speed of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is obviously
accelerating. But what needs to be mentioned here is that experts, including Wan
Gang, do not believe that the current development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
will conflict with pure electric vehicles. Ouyang Minggao, the current leader of
the major new energy vehicle expert group, said, "After many practices,
lithium-ion battery systems are more suitable to replace gasoline engines, and
hydrogen fuel cell systems are more suitable to replace diesel engines." This
also means that in the future, In the future, the passenger car market will
still be dominated by pure electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
will enter the commercial vehicle field to supplement the shortcomings of pure
electric vehicles and hybrid models. There is no phenomenon that the domestic
new energy vehicle development route has taken a big turn and pure electric
vehicles will be replaced as interpreted by the outside world. Conclusion:
Taking another leg towards new energy vehicles. Since being included in the
national three-vertical development plan for new energy vehicles seventeen years
ago, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have had a troubled life. In November 2018,
China’s new energy vehicle sales included 138,000 pure electric vehicles and
38,000 hybrid models. You can’t even see statistics on hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles. However, the development process of pure electric vehicles has exposed
obvious shortcomings, which require the development of other categories of new
energy vehicles to make up for it. In fact, this was also the intention of the
“Three Verticals and Three Horizontals” plan 17 years ago. In particular, when
global energy conservation and emission reduction regulations are further
squeezing the living space of hybrid models and the future of hybrid new energy
vehicles becomes increasingly uncertain, another "thigh" of new energy vehicles
needs to grow up and be launched immediately. Live. In this way, the domestic
new energy vehicle product system will be sound and can meet the various needs
of consumers and society.
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