902030 battery.Lithium hexafluorophosphate comes out of the bottom, additives enhance differentiation - electrolyte industry research report

　　The surge in demand in recent years has pushed the prices of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate to historical highs in 2016. Subsequently, the industry's production capacity expanded significantly and overcapacity was serious. In 2018, the industry even fell into a price war. After this round of industry reshuffle, strong The industry structure of Hengqiang is gradually becoming clearer. According to statistics from Gaogong Lithium Battery, the electrolyte CR6 reached 72% in 2018. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to bottom out: Under the radical expansion of production capacity, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been declining. By the end of 2018, the price has returned to the level of 90,000-100,000/ton in 2015, and the industry as a whole is near the break-even line. According to our statistics, the new production capacity in the industry in 2019 will be around 13,000 tons, which can basically balance the new demand. The capacity utilization rate will remain at around 75%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to come out of the bottom range. A new green and environmentally friendly DMC production process is available: The mainstream domestic DMC production technology is the dimethyl carbonate/propylene glycol co-production process using propylene oxide as raw material used by Shi Dashenghua. Recently, the joint production process using ethylene oxide as raw material developed by Oak Co., Ltd. The process of producing dimethyl carbonate/ethylene glycol has been launched, and the new process has obvious environmental protection advantages. In terms of demand, according to the domestic non-phosgene PC device planning in recent years, the future market space of DMC will double. Additives are the core competitiveness of electrolyte companies in the high-nickel era: high-nickel ternary materials have strong water absorption and low stability. Under high-temperature conditions, the catalytic effect of nickel elements will accelerate the decomposition of the electrolyte, causing the electrolyte to oxidize and produce gas. In order to reduce the reactivity of the electrolyte on the electrode surface and improve the interfacial compatibility, special additives must be used. Additives have become the main strategy to enhance the differentiation of electrolyte products and are a key manifestation of the core competitiveness of manufacturers. Investment advice: At this point in time, we believe that: the capacity utilization rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate is increasing year by year, and the price is expected to come out of the bottom range; in terms of solvents, new and more environmentally friendly DMC production processes have emerged in the industry, and costs will be further reduced; in the era of high nickel, additives It has become the main way for various manufacturing companies to improve product differentiation. It is recommended that Xinzhoubang, which is actively deploying fluorine fine chemicals, polyfluoropolymer, a leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate, Aoke Co., Ltd., which develops a new DMC green and environmentally friendly process, Shi Dashenghua, a full range supplier of electrolyte solvents, and Tianci Materials, which supports lithium hexafluorophosphate and has a layout in lithium mines. Risk analysis: The subsidy policy declines, and the growth rate of downstream demand slows down; the expansion of industry production capacity risks aggravating overcapacity.

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