3.7v 2200mah 18650 lithium battery.New photovoltaic technology: the latest driver of cost reductions

　　Photovoltaic industry development and investment trends point to new technologies. After experiencing the decline in polysilicon prices, the rapid expansion of the manufacturing industry, and the process of import substitution in supporting fields, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped by half compared with 2008. In the later period, the marginal effects caused by scale expansion are diminishing, and the driving force for cost reduction will gradually shift to new photovoltaic technologies. Since it can change the existing module cost structure and is expected to further reduce costs, we believe that new photovoltaic technologies will be the main driving force to achieve another half cost reduction by 2020. .The application of new photovoltaic technologies can drive down component costs by more than 50%. According to how optimistic we are about the industrialization of various photovoltaic new technologies, we have sorted them in order: cold hydrogenation > quasi-single crystal ingot casting > diamond cutting > cell efficiency reaching 22% > physical silicon material > no cutting loss/ Silica fume recycling. These new technologies can reduce component costs by 7, 8, 6, 20, 7, and 10 cents/w. That is to say, if all technologies are applied in 2020, component costs will drop below $0.5/w. The promotion of new technologies will become the main driving force for component cost reduction in the next decade.

　　Polycrystalline silicon production: cold hydrogenation is in progress, and physical methods are expected. Most foreign companies have used low-energy cold hydrogenation technology. With the spread of this technology in China and the expiration of patents, a large number of companies have carried out cold hydrogenation technological transformation. Compared with thermal hydrogenation, the production cost can be reduced. Reduced by more than US$5/kg. Using physical metallurgy to produce solar-grade polysilicon is simpler and consumes less energy than chemical methods. However, the current limit can only reach a purity of 6N. The conversion efficiency of the cells is not ideal, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the short term.

　　Crystal pulling ingot casting: Quasi-single crystal ingot casting and non-cutting technology will bring important changes. Quasi-monocrystalline ingots were developed by JA Solar. Seed crystals are added to induce growth during the ingot casting process to produce monocrystalline silicon wafers at the low cost of polycrystalline ingots. We believe that the large-scale application of this technology is just around the corner. The non-cutting technology uses high-energy hydrogen proton beam radiation to directly peel silicon wafers from silicon ingots, or directly grows silicon wafers from silicon material, which avoids 45% of the silicon material cutting loss in the slicing process. However, due to these two methods The cost is still high and there is still a distance from practical application.

　　Slicing: Diamond cutting and silicon powder recycling are based on the improvement of existing cutting processes. The diamond cutting wire method can reduce the cost of cutting consumables, but in the short term it is mainly used for square cutting. It has not yet been able to effectively solve the problems of scratches, fragments and wire diameter when used in silicon wafer cutting. The industry generally believes that it will take another 5 years. The idea of recycling silicon powder is to re-purify the high-purity silicon powder in waste mortar and recycle it. However, it is technically difficult and is currently limited to research and development by scientific research institutions, with no industrializable results yet.

　　Cells: A variety of new technologies improve conversion efficiency. The industrial efficiency of solar cells is increasing at an average annual rate of 5%, and is expected to reach about 21% in 2015. By then, even if other costs remain unchanged, the cost per watt of components can drop by 15%, or about 15 cents. Currently, various cell technologies based on N-type silicon are expected to be industrialized. We believe that cell technology is the most differentiated link in the photovoltaic industry chain and is also the most likely to breed high-growth companies.

　　Photovoltaic system: System optimization improves power generation capacity. Through the application of tracking systems, micro-inverter systems and software optimization, the power generation of the system can be increased while the installed capacity remains unchanged, thereby diluting the cost of electricity.

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