Power battery and energy storage battery industry research report |
Industry research
Since government subsidies will be withdrawn after 2020, the market has
doubts about the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the demand for
power batteries. As the cost of lithium batteries continues to decline, the
cost-effectiveness of new energy vehicles as consumer goods will gradually be
reflected, and the penetration rate will continue to increase. Coupled with the
impending breakthrough of the energy storage industry, the demand for power
batteries will maintain a high compounding rate of more than 25% in the next ten
years. growth rate.
▌Automotive electrification is the main source of demand for power
batteries. In 2017, global new energy vehicle sales exceeded 1.223 million
units, an increase of 58% from 2016, pushing global new energy vehicle sales to
account for more than 1% of total global vehicle sales for the first time. Since
2012, the production and sales of new energy vehicles at home and abroad have
continued to grow rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 54% in the past five
years. As of the end of 2017, the global cumulative sales of new energy vehicles
have reached nearly 4 million units, accounting for 0.3% of the global vehicle
population. Among them, China’s cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have
exceeded 1.6 million units, accounting for 42% of the global cumulative total.
Excluding China Major markets also include the United States, Japan, and
European countries such as Norway and Germany. The cumulative sales of the top
ten consumer countries account for 93% of the global total. Domestic new energy
vehicle production and sales increased from less than 10,000 units in 2011 to
nearly 800,000 units in 2017, with a six-year compound growth rate of more than
100%. In 2017, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales increased by
more than 50% year-on-year, and have continued to maintain growth since 2018.
High growth. In the first seven months, domestic new energy vehicle production
and sales exceeded 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 80%,
accounting for more than 3% of total domestic vehicle sales. The trend of
vehicle electrification has become clear. According to the power source and
cruising range of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles can be divided into
mild hybrid electric vehicles (with less charge and the main function is to
reduce start-stop fuel consumption), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles ( PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Pure
electric vehicles can be divided into low-end (less than 250km), mid-range
(250~380km) and high-end electric vehicles (more than 380km) according to the
length of their cruising range. Generally speaking, the cruising range of pure
electric vehicles is determined by the amount of electricity carried by the car.
, 1kWh of electricity can drive the car for 5-7km. As the main source of power
for electric vehicles, power batteries are the biggest beneficiary of vehicle
electrification. Benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of the new energy
vehicle industry, the shipment volume of power batteries has been rising
steadily, and its proportion in lithium battery applications has increased
rapidly. In 2017, total global lithium battery shipments reached 148.1GWh, of
which total power battery shipments reached 62.35GWh. Energy storage battery
shipments also grew rapidly, with energy storage battery shipments reaching
10.4GWh in 2017. Since 2014, the compound growth rate of power batteries and
energy storage batteries has reached 80% and 77% respectively. The compound
growth rate of traditional consumer batteries is only 7%. The new demand in the
lithium battery industry will be dominated by power batteries and energy storage
batteries. . Domestic lithium battery shipments also show a similar trend.
Before 2013, small battery shipments accounted for more than 90%. By 2017, the
proportion of power batteries and energy storage batteries had reached 55%.
▌The switching of driving forces for new energy vehicles will not change
the high growth of the battery industry. Cost-effectiveness determines the
process of vehicle electrification. Battery cost is the key driver. As a mass
consumer product, cost-effectiveness is the fundamental factor that determines
its technical route. Compared with fuel vehicles, the differences between
electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles mainly include the following
aspects: Structurally, electric vehicles use power batteries to replace fuel
engines, and the powertrain system of fuel vehicles is simplified, and the cost
difference also comes from this; In terms of performance, due to the low energy
density of power batteries and limited fast charging capabilities, the cruising
range and charging experience of electric vehicles are still inferior to those
of fuel vehicles. However, as the charge capacity of electric vehicles
increases, "range anxiety" has become larger. In order to alleviate; In terms of
cost, since the cost of power batteries is still high, the purchase cost of
electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles. At the same time, the
use cost of electric vehicles is lower. The advantage depends on the annual
driving distance and the fuel price/electricity price ratio. We built a model to
study the purchase cost and total cost of ownership (TCO) of different models.
Under baseline conditions, the purchase cost of an ordinary fuel vehicle is
196,000 yuan, the purchase cost of an electric vehicle of the same grade is
246,000 yuan, and the battery cost is 1,500 yuan/kWh (tax included); the
operating life is 8 years, and the vehicle is driven 15,000 times per year.
kilometers, and the residual value of the vehicle is 60,000 yuan and 40,000 yuan
respectively. During the operation period, the TCO of fuel vehicles and electric
vehicles were 213,000 yuan and 248,000 yuan respectively. In comparison, the
purchase cost of fuel vehicles is still more competitive, and the fuel cost of
electric vehicles still has obvious advantages despite relatively high
electricity prices. The cost of batteries has a very obvious impact on the TCO
and purchase price of electric vehicles. When other factors remain unchanged,
when the battery price drops to 900-1,000 yuan/kWh, the TCO of electric vehicles
is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles. Ordinary passenger car consumers
will be more motivated to purchase new energy vehicles. When the battery cost
further drops below 700 yuan/kWh, the purchase cost of pure electric vehicles
can compete with fuel vehicles, and their penetration rate will enter a stage of
accelerated growth. . Based on this, we divide the development stages of
electric vehicles into the "pre-TCO parity" stage, the TCO parity stage and the
purchase cost parity stage. In the pre-TCO parity stage, as costs were still
uncompetitive, the rapid growth of electric vehicles in the past few years was
mainly driven by policies, especially subsidy policies. At this time, the
industry was in a subsidy-driven period; with the decline in battery costs, The
TCO of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is constantly approaching. In some
application scenarios, electric vehicles even have a TCO cost advantage. At this
time, using some non-subsidized industrial policies to push up the cost of fuel
vehicles can further increase the penetration rate of electric vehicles. At this
time, the industry is driven by policy pressure; once the battery cost breaks
through the critical point, the purchase cost of electric vehicles will take
advantage, and the industry will also transition to the consumption-driven
stage. The internal reason for the driving force switch is the rapid decline in
power battery costs and the continued enhancement of the cost competitiveness of
electric vehicles. The external reason is the adjustment of industrial
policies.
▌Subsidy policies help new energy vehicles complete the market
introduction. Although the cost of power batteries has dropped rapidly from
1,000$/kWh in 2009 to the current 150~170$/kWh, the purchase cost and full cost
of use of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are still far
away. Higher than traditional fuel vehicles. According to BNEF research, the
cost of a small fuel-powered vehicle in the United States in 2018 was
approximately US$18,000, of which the cost of the powertrain system was
approximately US$5,500, while the cost of the battery system and power system of
an electric vehicle was close to US$12,000. Therefore, the most effective policy
so far remains Mainly direct subsidies - such as China's purchase subsidies for
various models and the US tax credit of US$7,500 per vehicle for car companies
with sales of less than 200,000 vehicles - are used to narrow the cost gap
between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Driven by subsidies and other
related policies, the introduction of new energy vehicles around the world has
been very rapid. In 2012, the global sales of new energy vehicles accounted for
less than 0.2%. By 2017, the market share had risen to 1.26%. Entering 2018,
global new energy vehicles continue to maintain a surge in growth. According to
statistics, global electric vehicle sales reached 760,000 units in the first
half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 69%, and the overall market share
reached 1.6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in major overseas
markets is accelerating. In the first half of the year, European electric
vehicle sales increased by 43% year-on-year, with registrations reaching 185,000
units, and the market share increased to 2.2%. Electric vehicle sales in the
United States also exceeded 100,000 units. , reaching 122,000 vehicles, 53% of
which were pure electric vehicles, with a market share of 1.4%, a year-on-year
increase of 0.3 percentage points. The market introduction of new energy
vehicles in China has gone through three stages and lasted for more than ten
years. Among them, 2003-2008 is the technology verification and science and
technology demonstration project stage. The landmark event is the world's
largest Olympic new energy vehicle demonstration operation carried out at the
Beijing Olympics, with a total of 595 energy-saving and new energy vehicles
invested; the second stage is The first phase of the "Ten Cities, Thousands of
Vehicles" new energy vehicle promotion project from 2009 to 2012, during which
large-scale demonstration operations of new energy vehicles were carried out in
25 pilot cities, promoted a total of 27,000 new energy vehicles; the third phase
It is the second phase of the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” demonstration
project from 2013 to 2015. At the specific policy level, in 2009, the State
Council issued the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan",
which for the first time put forward the policy guidance of "launching national
energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration projects, and the central
government will arrange funds to provide subsidies." In the same year, the
Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the
Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", which
clarified that subsidies will be provided for the purchase of new energy
vehicles in the public service areas of pilot cities. The era of new energy
vehicle subsidies in the public sector has officially arrived. At that time, a
pure electric vehicle could receive up to 60,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy
funds. Plug-in hybrids (default fuel saving rate of more than 40%) could
generally receive 50,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy funds. Pure electric
vehicles The subsidy for buses is as high as 500,000 yuan per vehicle.
Stimulated by strong subsidies, my country's new energy vehicle production and
sales have continued to rise. In 2015, China's new energy vehicle sales reached
330,000 units, accounting for more than 1% of new vehicle sales for the first
time. Global sales of new energy vehicles that year were The proportion exceeds
50%. At this point, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry has
reached an irreversible turning point, and the introduction period has basically
ended. In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country accounted for
2.6% of the total vehicle sales. In the first seven months of 2018, the
proportion was as high as 2.84%. The penetration rate of China's new energy
vehicles has reached the forefront of the world.
▌Subsidies are declining, restrictive policies are coming, and the driving
force of the industry has quietly shifted gears. In 2017, the global penetration
rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 1%. At the same time, the cost of power
batteries is still declining rapidly. Maintaining the previous subsidy and
incentive policies is of great importance to governments All are heavy burdens.
Therefore, the withdrawal of subsidy policies globally has become a general
trend. At a stage when new energy vehicles are still not cost-competitive,
imposing certain restrictive policies on fuel vehicles and driving up their
production/use costs will become the main trend for electric vehicles in a
period of time. the main driving force of change. Domestic: Subsidy reduction,
double points take over As battery prices continue to decline, the Chinese
government’s subsidies for new energy vehicles are also gradually reducing.
Since the implementation of the subsidy policy in 2009, the upper limit of
subsidies for pure electric vehicles has been reduced from 60,000 yuan/vehicle.
It has been lowered to 50,000 yuan/vehicle, and the mileage requirement has been
reduced from no rigid regulations to more than 400 kilometers. For example, in
terms of electricity subsidy, the subsidy intensity per kWh of early pure
electric vehicles can reach up to 3,000 yuan. The latest standard in 2018 was
lowered to 50,000 yuan per vehicle. to less than 1,200 yuan/kWh; the subsidy
intensity for plug-in hybrid passenger cars has been reduced from 50,000
yuan/vehicle to 22,000 yuan/vehicle. The subsidy in 2019 will be reduced by
another 40% based on 2016. According to the plan, After 2020, all direct
subsidies for electric vehicles will be cancelled. By then, China's new energy
vehicle industry will also have completed the stage of being driven by subsidy
policies. At the same time, although battery costs continue to decrease rapidly,
it is expected that the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles will still be
at a disadvantage until 2025. In the shifting stage, the Ministry of Industry
and Information Technology launched a dual-point policy, forcing traditional car
companies to increase the production of new energy vehicles and increase the
penetration rate of new energy vehicles. On September 28, 2017, five departments
including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of
Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and
the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine
jointly issued the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Car
Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points", stipulating
that the measures will be implemented from Effective from April 1, 2018, it is
also stipulated that companies with an annual production or import volume of
Changtong Energy passenger vehicles reaching more than 30,000 units will set new
energy vehicle point proportion requirements starting from 2019. This marks a
significant concern. The double points policy has been officially implemented.
According to the implementation plan of the dual-point policy, companies with
positive NEV points can obtain additional income by trading new energy points.
Traditional car companies are also motivated to transform to electric vehicles
when they face the pressure of penalties for failing to meet the points
standards. Double points can be seen as a hidden cost for car companies. As the
cost of this regulation becomes higher and higher, it will become a policy
barrier, which requires car companies to invest a lot of resources and funds to
overcome it. . Preliminary estimates indicate that the NEV points ratio reaching
12% in 2020 corresponds to sales of 2 million new energy vehicles that year. By
adjusting the points of different models and the proportion of NEV points, the
dual-point policy can be used as a long-term mechanism to promote the increase
in the sales proportion of new energy vehicles. With subsidies still not
completely withdrawn, the role of various restrictive policies has gradually
emerged. It is expected that after 2020, the main driving force of the new
energy vehicle industry will be the repressive effect of restrictive policies on
vehicle companies. Abroad: Tighter emission standards are raising the cost of
fuel vehicles. The process of declining subsidies in overseas markets is also
progressing steadily. In the U.S. market, as the cumulative sales of Tesla
electric vehicles have approached the critical value of 200,000 units, the
US$7,500 tax credit for purchasing electric vehicles will be cut in half to
US$3,750, and all subsidies will be canceled after one and a half years. Other
models with large sales, such as the GM Bolt and Nissan Leaf, are also facing
the problem of declining subsidies. On the other hand, continuing to improve the
emission standards of fuel vehicles and pushing up the production costs of fuel
vehicles can also narrow the cost gap between electric vehicles and fuel
vehicles from another angle. Based on existing data or trends, the emission
standards for fuel vehicles in major global markets will be raised to
100~120g/km by 2020, which is 20%~40% lower than the global emission standards
in 2010. According to the current technical level of fuel vehicles, By then,
most traditional car companies will be able to meet emission standards. After
2020, emission standards will be further tightened. The European Union hopes
that vehicle manufacturers will control CO2 emissions to 95g/km before January
1, 2020. Each vehicle will be fined 95 euros for every 1g exceeded, and plans to
Emission standards will be further reduced to below 78 emissions/km by 2025. At
the same time, the additional cost of fuel vehicles to meet the requirements
will increase rapidly, reaching an economic bottleneck. According to BCG
estimates, if the emission standards for fuel vehicles are raised to 80~100g/km
in 2025, the cost of each fuel vehicle will rise. 470~580 US dollars. By then,
although the cost competitiveness of new energy vehicles is still insufficient,
vehicle companies will consider producing a certain proportion of new energy
vehicles in order to meet the standards. In the United States, in order to meet
regulatory requirements, vehicle manufacturers have reduced the overall market
share of fuel vehicles from 95% in 2020 to 66% in 2025, and at the same time
launched more MHEV and BEV models. MHEVs have relatively low manufacturing costs
and can be adapted to current vehicle platforms. BCG expects MHEV's market share
to expand to nearly 20% in 2023. After that, BEVs will become the most efficient
solution; as battery costs fall, their shareThe amount will rapidly expand from
nearly 2% in 2020 to 8% in 2025. As European regulations provide a multiplier
effect on BEVs, the development of electric vehicles in the European market will
take a different trajectory, and pure electric vehicles are expected to become
the most effective way to achieve the EU's current and expected tasks. While
combustion vehicles will continue to hold the largest market share, BEVs’ share
is expected to increase from 1% in 2020 to 13% in 2025, while the share of all
other xEVs will rise from 5% to 18%. During this period, the share of gasoline
and diesel vehicles will fall from 93% to 68%, with diesel vehicles experiencing
the fastest decline. TCO tends to parity, and market segments are expected to
continue to emerge. With the further reduction of power battery costs, the use
and production costs of new energy vehicles continue to be close to or even
lower than traditional fuel vehicles, that is, full cost parity (TCO parity) and
production are achieved. With cost of production parity, the driving factor for
electric vehicles switches to market competitiveness. Conducting sensitivity
analysis on various factors that affect TCO, it can be found that the factors
that have the most significant impact on TCO are mainly annual operating mileage
and fuel price. When the operating mileage doubles to 30,000 kilometers per
year, the TCO of the two vehicles is close. When the operating mileage further
increases to 45,000 kilometers per year, the TCO of the electric vehicle will be
40,000 yuan lower than that of the fuel vehicle. The impact of fuel price on the
TCO of the two is also obvious. When the oil price drops by 20% from 7.5
yuan/liter, the TCO advantage of the fuel vehicle will expand to 48,000 yuan.
When the oil price rises by 20%, the TCO advantage of the fuel vehicle will
disappear. As narrow as 22,000 yuan. This result is consistent with BCG's
research results. BCG’s research concluded that the factors that have the
greatest impact on automobile TCO include fuel price, purchase price, and annual
operating mileage. From a global perspective, based on the full cost of use, the
Chinese market will take the lead in becoming a regional market with cost parity
for electric vehicles. For certain market segments, such as taxis, online
ride-hailing and other industries whose annual mileage exceeds the average, it
is already more economical to use electric vehicles. BCG predicts that electric
vehicles will achieve TCO parity between 2020 and 2025. By 2025, the penetration
rate of pure electric vehicles will reach 6%. By around 2027, production cost
parity will be achieved. By 2030, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles
will reach 14%. Affected by this, the compound growth rate of power batteries
from 2018 to 2020 will exceed 20%, and the compound growth rate of power
batteries from 2018 to 2030 will reach 29%. The demand for power battery
industry will show extremely high growth in the next ten years.
▌Producer parity opens up a new consumption-driven era. Furthermore, if we
want to accelerate the replacement of electric vehicles, the prerequisite that
needs to be met is that the production cost of electric vehicles is lower than
that of similar fuel vehicles. According to estimates from different
organizations, by 2025-2030, the price of power batteries will drop to
50-70$/kWh. By then, the production cost of electric vehicles will be lower than
that of fuel vehicles, and new energy vehicles will truly enter the "producer
parity" stage. There are motivations on both sides of supply and demand to
accelerate the development of vehicle electrification. BCG predicts that by
2025, 6% of global car sales will be occupied by pure electric vehicles, and
this proportion will increase to 14% by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s forecasts are 9%
and 16% respectively, and UBS predicts that pure electric vehicles and The total
proportion of PHEVs has reached 13.2%. After 2040, various institutions agree
that electric vehicles will become a major part of the automobile market.
Although various institutions have different expectations for the speed of
penetration increase, even according to the most pessimistic assumptions, the
annual sales volume of global new energy vehicles in 2025 will be several times
that of 2017, and the demand for power batteries will also follow. multiply.
According to preliminary estimates, if global pure electric vehicle sales
account for 6% and PHEV sales account for 2% in 2025, the demand for power
batteries in 2025 will exceed 580GWh, assuming that the two models have a charge
capacity of 55kWh and 15kWh respectively. Total demand will exceed 1,300GWh in
2030, and the 12-year compound growth rate from 2018 to 2030 will be close to
30%. For the Chinese market, according to the plans of the Ministry of Industry
and Information Technology and other departments, the number of new energy
vehicles in China will reach 5 million by 2020, and the sales of new energy
vehicles will be 2 million that year, accounting for about 12% of the annual
vehicle sales. Assuming that new energy vehicles will The average charge of
energy vehicles is 45kWh, and the demand for power batteries will reach 90GWh in
2020, corresponding to a compound growth rate of 33% in demand from 2018 to
2020. As battery costs further decline, the penetration rate of new energy
vehicles continues to increase. Assuming that the penetration rate reaches 15%
and 20% in 2025 and 2030 respectively, the compound growth rate of battery
demand from 2020 to 2030 will still reach more than 20% . It can be said that
whether it is the domestic market or the global market, the power battery
industry is a high-quality industry with both growth space and growth speed.
▌Energy storage: The application prospects are unlimited, and the market is
about to dawn. The application scenarios are diverse and the demand space is
vast. The traditional power system is a real-time balancing system determined by
the demand side. Its structure is a typical branch-and-leaf structure, which is
divided into "generation-transmission-distribution- "Electricity" and other
aspects, because the current cost of energy storage is still high, the role of
energy storage in the power system is relatively limited. In recent years, as
the proportion of unstable power sources such as wind power and photovoltaics
has rapidly increased, and more and more distributed power sources are connected
from the distribution network side, the challenge of maintaining grid security
has become greater and greater, and the demand for energy storage has also
increased. Increasingly urgent. The application scenarios of energy storage are
very diverse, and it can play a huge role in all four aspects of power system
generation, transmission and distribution. On the power generation side, energy
storage is mainly used for peak shifting of renewable energy; in the power
transmission and distribution link, energy storage can play the role of regional
frequency regulation. The frequency regulation market in some countries is open
and a bidding mechanism is adopted. Battery energy storage has a high degree of
participation. However, the total capacity of the FM market is limited. In the
domestic market, energy storage mainly assists thermal power units in frequency
modulation to improve the response speed of thermal power frequency modulation;
on the power consumption side, energy storage systems can significantly improve
the stability of power supply. According to incomplete statistics from the CNESA
global energy storage project database, as of the end of 2017, the cumulative
installed capacity of energy storage projects in operation worldwide was
175.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, the cumulative installed
capacity of pumped hydro storage accounted for the highest 96%, down 1
percentage point from the previous year; the cumulative installed capacity of
electrochemical energy storage was 2926.6MW, an increase of 45% year-on-year,
accounting for 1.7%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year. An increase
of 0.5 percentage points. Among various types of electrochemical energy storage
technologies, lithium-ion batteries account for the largest cumulative installed
capacity, exceeding 75%. In 2017, the installed capacity of newly put into
operation electrochemical energy storage projects worldwide was 914.1MW, a
year-on-year increase of 23%. The installed capacity of newly planned and
under-construction electrochemical energy storage projects is 3063.7MW. It is
expected that the global electrochemical energy storage installed capacity will
maintain rapid growth in the short term. As of the end of 2017, the cumulative
installed capacity of energy storage projects in operation in China was 28.9GW,
a year-on-year increase of 19%. The cumulative installed capacity of pumped
hydropower accounts for the largest proportion, close to 99%, but it has
declined compared with the previous year. The cumulative installed capacity of
electrochemical energy storage was 389.8MW, a year-on-year increase of 45%,
accounting for 1.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous
year. Among various types of electrochemical energy storage technologies,
lithium-ion batteries account for the largest cumulative installed capacity,
accounting for 58%. In the first half of 2018, the newly installed lithium
battery capacity in China was 100.2MWh, a year-on-year increase of 133%. In
terms of application scenarios, of the electrochemical energy storage projects
newly put into operation around the world in 2017, 33% were used in centralized
renewable energy grid connection, 26% were used in auxiliary services, and the
rest went to the grid side, power supply side and user side. scenarios; in
China, applications in the user-side field are mainly used, accounting for 59%
of all new operations in 2017, followed by the centralized renewable energy grid
connection field, with a share of 25%, and ancillary services with a share of
approximately 16%. The energy storage industry has huge market prospects. In
terms of renewable energy grid integration, with the increasing number of
distributed energy sources (photovoltaic, wind power, etc.) integrated into the
distribution network, the interaction between existing power sources and newly
connected distributed power sources has important implications for power grid
management and operation. It poses a huge challenge. Due to the poor stability
of distributed power sources, further increase in grid penetration will add
additional costs to the balance of the grid. Energy storage systems will play an
increasingly important role in the future power system. In recent years, my
country's annual newly added wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity has
reached more than 50GW. According to the 2-hour ratio, there is a potential
demand space of 100GWh. The energy storage demand for frequency regulation is
also relatively large. Experts from the State Grid Center said that it is
expected that domestic energy storage and frequency regulation installed
capacity will maintain an average annual growth rate of 8% in the next five
years, and the annual frequency regulation demand alone will reach about 2GW.
Other scenarios are more widely used. Taking base stations as an example, China
Tower Co., Ltd. currently has nearly 2 million base stations across the country,
which requires about 44GWh of backup power. The 600,000 peak-shaving and
valley-filling power stations require about 44GWh of batteries and 500,000. Each
new energy station requires about 48GWh of batteries, and the total battery
requirements are about 136GWh. In addition, based on the 6-year battery
replacement cycle of existing station batteries, approximately 22.6GWh of
batteries are required each year; based on the calculation of 100,000 new base
stations each year, it is expected that new power stations will require
approximately 2.4GWh of batteries, for a total of approximately 25GWh of
batteries per year. Lithium battery energy storage has obvious advantages, and
the cost reduction is close to the critical point. Among the newly developed
energy storage technologies, the comprehensive advantages of lithium battery
energy storage in terms of energy density, power density, cycle times, cost,
etc. are extremely prominent, and it has also become a trend in recent years.
The main source of new energy storage capacity. In 2017, the world's new energy
storage battery capacity was 914.1MWh, of which lithium-ion batteries accounted
for 93%; domestic newly added energy storage battery capacity was 100.4MWh, of
which lithium-ion batteries accounted for 58.5%. The main obstacle restricting
further large-scale application of lithium-ion batteries is their relatively
high cost. Around 2010, the investment cost of energy storage systems was as
high as more than 11 yuan/kWh, and the corresponding levelized cost of energy
storage (LCOS) exceeded 2 yuan/kWh. By 2017, the cost of energy storage
batteries had dropped to less than 2 yuan/Wh. , plus the cost of the whole
system such as PCS is about 2.6 yuan/Wh, the corresponding LCOS is 0.6 yuan/kWh,
which is close to China’s peak-to-valley electricity price difference. Some
peak-shaving and valley-filling projects have initially become economical. As
the cost of battery systems continues to decline, the LCOS of energy storage is
expected to drop to 0.3 yuan/kWh, which will be valuable in more application
scenarios, and the capacity of energy storage systems will also enter a period
of rapid growth. According to BNEF estimates, global electrochemical energy
storage battery capacity will exceed 81GWh by 2024, 10 times the cumulative
capacity in 2016, with a 10-year compound growth rate of 38%. Domestically,
according to CNESA estimates, China's energy storage equipment capacity will
reach 41.99GW by 2020, of which electrochemical energy storage capacity will
reach 1.78GW, reaching 4.5 times the cumulative installed capacity of
electrochemical energy storage at the end of 2017, corresponding to new lithium
battery demand Up to 2.6~5GWh. It is worth mentioning that currently, power
batteries based on new materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary
batteries are very popular in the energy storage market. Compared with
traditional lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have higher energy density.
Taking ternary lithium batteries as an example, a 40-foot container can store up
to 4.8MWh lithium batteries, and integrates HVAC, FFS, BMS, communication
protection and other auxiliary services unit. At the same time, compared with
traditional lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries are more adaptable to
temperature and more suitable for outdoor energy storage needs. In addition,
energy storage batteries can also use retired power batteries for cascade
utilization, which not only reduces costs but also effectively solves the
problem of post-retirement disposal of power batteries, becoming an industry
development direction encouraged by the state. Long life and high safety
requirements are conducive to improving concentration. Automotive power
batteries have higher power and energy requirements for batteries, while energy
storage batteries focus more on safety and life, and have different product
performance under different working conditions. requirements. In general,
factors such as battery safety, cycle life and calendar life, price and storage
efficiency are the performance priorities of energy storage systems. In terms of
safety, due to the large battery capacity of lithium battery energy storage
power stations, a system often includes thousands of cells. The probability of
thermal runaway is higher and the consequences are more serious. Once a battery
experiences thermal runaway , can easily lead to the overall loss of control of
the battery system, so the energy storage system has extremely high requirements
for the safety performance of lithium batteries. Since the beginning of 2017, a
total of 7 fire accidents have occurred in energy storage projects in South
Korea, affecting a total of 78MWh of project capacity, accounting for 3% of all
project capacity in South Korea. The number of power plant-level energy storage
projects affected by fire accidents since 2011 has reached 11. Several energy
storage systems involved in the accident all used nickel-cobalt-manganese
ternary batteries from the same manufacturer. In addition, in order to realize
the economy of the energy storage system throughout its life cycle, the energy
storage system must also ensure thousands of charge and discharge cycles and a
life span of more than 10 years (or even 20 years). The safety and life of the
battery system are highly related to the material route and the production
capacity of the battery manufacturer. In terms of technology, automotive power
batteries have now fully shifted to the nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary system.
This system has higher energy density and working voltage, but large-scale
integration has the risk of explosion, and the cycle life is only about 3,000
times at most, which is not very good. to meet energy storage needs. In
contrast, lithium iron phosphate batteries show very good stability, will not
cause thermal decomposition reactions even at temperatures up to 300°C, and show
overall excellent cycle stability in battery cell tests. , the capacity
attenuation is very low throughout the life cycle. Battery cells using lithium
iron phosphate and lithium titanate (LFP-LTO) as positive and negative electrode
materials have a cycle life of even more than 20,000 times. It is expected that
with the increasing scale of lithium battery energy storage applications, the
relatively safer iron phosphate Lithium batteries are expected to be more widely
used. In terms of production capacity, the safety hazards of energy storage
batteries mainly come from the accumulation of various errors during the
production process. Improving safety mainly relies on manufacturers' control of
product quality and production process consistency. The high safety requirements
of energy storage are more conducive to companies with first-line technical
strength. It is expected that the market share in this field will be relatively
concentrated.
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