14500 battery

Energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap boosts 14500 battery industry chain boom

The market size of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly in the future, and sales in 4Q are expected to increase significantly month-on-month in the short term. According to the roadmap, the market size of new energy vehicles will expand rapidly in the future. By 2020/2025/2030, the annual production and sales of automobiles will reach 30 million/35 million/38 million vehicles, respectively, of which the annual sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 7%/15%/40% of the total sales, that is, the total sales will exceed 2.1 million/5.25 million/15.2 million vehicles, respectively. New energy vehicles will become the mainstream vehicles in the future, and the market will continue to be prosperous. In the short term, sales in 4Q are expected to increase significantly month-on-month.

High-tech ternary battery leading manufacturers are expected to benefit from new battery technology requirements. The roadmap mentions the promotion of the application of new energy passenger vehicles, which is beneficial to the promotion of ternary batteries, and at the same time puts forward new requirements for battery energy density, cycle life, cost and other aspects. Compared with the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", the energy density and system cost requirements of energy-type batteries have been updated from 300Wh/kg and 1.5 yuan/Wh to 350Wh/kg and 1.0 yuan/Wh respectively. At present, the technical level of domestic battery manufacturers cannot meet the requirements, and low-end battery manufacturers are facing the risk of elimination. Leading ternary battery manufacturers with high technical level are expected to benefit and further expand their market share.

With the high-end development of 14500 battery materials, the shipment volume of high-nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon-carbon negative electrode, and wet-process diaphragm is expected to increase. The roadmap proposes related material technologies that are conducive to improving battery energy density, pointing out that high-capacity lithium-ion battery material technologies such as nickel-cobalt-manganese layered positive electrode and graphite negative electrode will be developed before 2020, and high-capacity/high-voltage electrode materials and all-solid-state lithium secondary battery technologies will be developed before 2025. The 14500 battery material industry will face a structural supply-demand imbalance. The demand for mid-to-high-end 14500 battery materials such as high-nickel ternary positive electrode, silicon-carbon negative electrode, and wet-process diaphragm will further increase. Related companies producing mid-to-high-end 14500 battery materials are expected to benefit, with an increase in product shipments and increased profitability.

Valuation and suggestions

The policy is accelerating, the new energy vehicle industry has entered the 4Q peak season, and the prosperity of the industrial chain is expected to rebound month-on-month. It is recommended to increase positions on dips in Cangzhou Mingzhu, a leading diaphragm company with a relatively low valuation. It is recommended to pay attention to high-nickel ternary positive electrode manufacturer Dangsheng Technology, silicon-carbon negative electrode manufacturer China Baoan, and high-tech ternary battery manufacturers Guoxuan High-tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Aoyang Shunchang.

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