CR2025 battery

　　SIFC Research: The opportunity for cobalt sector layout has arrived, fuel cell localization is accelerating

　　The rush to install new energy passenger cars continues.

　　Monthly Industry Thoughts

　　The rush to install new energy passenger cars continues. The opportunity for layout on the left side of the bottom of the upstream cobalt sector has arrived; the midstream is paying attention to the progress of high-nickel mass production, phased opportunities for lithium iron phosphate and opportunities for improvement in electrolyte profits; the downstream vehicle industry is paying attention to the differentiation of demand after subsidies are reduced; the localization of the fuel cell industry chain The level has been significantly improved, and attention has been paid to the proposals of the two sessions. Recommended combination: Hanrui Cobalt, CATL, Meijin Energy, and Xiongtao Holdings.

　　Key points of sub-sectors

　　Upstream resources: cobalt, the opportunity has arrived at the bottom left. Cobalt prices have accelerated their decline and are expected to bottom out in the second quarter. Signs of contraction on the supply side continue to intensify, production capacity clearance continues to accelerate, and the opportunity for layout on the left side of the sector has arrived.

　　Midstream batteries: We recommend companies that are well prepared for the high-nickel industry chain and pay attention to the periodic opportunities of lithium iron phosphate and the improvement of electrolyte profits. High-nickel industrial chain: The development path of batteries to increase energy density and reduce costs remains unchanged. High-nickel is the only technical path that can both increase energy density and reduce costs. The trend of ternary high-nickel is irreversible; lithium iron phosphate: expected in 2019 Subsidies have declined significantly, and the economics of lithium iron phosphate in low-endurance models have been highlighted and strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to its phased opportunities; Electrolyte: Electrolyte prices have been at the bottom, and there is limited room for continued decline. The profitability of sector companies has gradually improved and It is more likely that both quantity and profit will rise.

　　Supply chain: Tesla's industrial chain is the focus of investment in 2019. Parts focus on lithium-ion battery thermal management and high-voltage parts sub-sectors, focusing on the fine lithium battery sub-sector where smart driving has entered commercialization. Tesla industry chain: Tesla has launched a combination of price reduction + launch of the basic version of Model 3 + store closures + upgraded smart driving to brighten the company's fortunes. The countdown to localization has benefited existing and potential suppliers. Thermal management industry: Domestic electric vehicles have completed the breakthrough of heat pump loading from 0 to 1, with a market space of 1.6 billion in 2020. High-voltage parts industry: The value of a single electric vehicle high-voltage wiring harness system is 2,500 yuan. The trend is at two points. One is that the localization of connectors is in progress; the other is that the development period of silicone rubber cables is intensified. Intelligent driving industry: L2~L3 promotes standardization requirements and focuses on key sub-industries such as decision-making, chips and sensors, and control execution.

　　Downstream finished vehicles: The decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles has narrowed, inventory pressure has been eased, and new energy vehicles continue to be installed. Affected by the Spring Festival effect and manufacturers' destocking, consumers concentrated on purchasing cars in January. The year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars narrowed and that of lithium-ion battery manufacturers was significantly driven by luxury cars and new energy vehicles. Manufacturers proactively adjusted production and sales, and channel inventories were alleviated. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, sales pressure is expected to be greater. New energy vehicles continue to maintain a high growth rate, and the rush to purchase and install them before the adjustment of subsidy policies continues, but there is a risk of overdrafting subsequent demand.

　　Fuel cells: The localization of fuel cells in my country has improved significantly, and we pay attention to the proposals of the two sessions. We believe that the logic behind the long-lasting market trend of this sector is that my country’s fuel cell industry is not what it used to be. It is completely different from the blank lithium-ion battery chain in the past. In 2019, the localization level of the stack industry chain reached 50%, the localization level of key system components reached 70%, and other core components are also in a rapid process of catching up. Paying attention to the proposals of the two sessions, many CPPCC members put forward relevant suggestions on hydrogen energy and fuel cells on the eve of the two sessions.

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