Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery

　　The Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry is in "labor pain" and urgently needs to seek technological breakthroughs

　　Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a kick-off meeting for the preparation of the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which once again stirred up the Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry. Although there are constant calls for overcapacity, the desire for lithium battery investment among capital fans has not yet been fully released. An investment boom is sweeping across China.

　　Driven by the impulse to invest, expectations for a reshuffle of the industry also follow. How to avoid rushing into investment stereotypes has once again attracted industry attention.

　　Overheated investment leads to overcapacity

　　Capital’s sense of smell is always keen, but the expression ‘overinvestment’ is not necessarily accurate. Under the market environment, a large-scale influx of capital is inevitable in the early stages of any ‘sunrise industry’. In the long run, the influx of capital will also promote the development of the industry. Although investment will not be ‘excessive’, it can be ‘overheated’. Wang Gan, an industry analyst at iResearch Consulting, said.

　　In fact, the Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry most relevant to new energy vehicles is the power lithium battery industry, and power lithium batteries are no longer babies in the development matrix. Wang Qian pointed out that according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the installed capacity of power lithium batteries in China's new energy vehicle industry in 2018 was 56.89Gwh. Compared with the installed capacity of less than 1Gwh in 2012, it has achieved leapfrog growth. China has developed into the world's largest new energy vehicle market.

　　At present, it seems that power lithium battery companies represented by CATL and BYD (002594) have achieved certain international competitiveness. It is undeniable that overcapacity, with shipments far exceeding installed capacity, has always existed. Taking the past year of lithium-ion batteries in 2018 as an example, the shipment volume of my country's power lithium battery industry reached more than 65Gwh, and there is pressure to destock. Wang Qian added.

　　According to data from the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, by 2020, the power lithium battery production capacity of 15 large and medium-sized power lithium battery production companies including CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074) will be close to 300Gwh, which will be the largest power lithium battery for new energy vehicles in 2020. Three times the demand.

　　Jiang Wangyue, a researcher at the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, analyzed to a reporter from my country Economic News: On the one hand, government intervention has increased the entry threshold and huge subsidies to attract a large amount of investment. The Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry is greatly affected by policies. In November 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Standard Conditions for the Automotive Power Lithium Battery Industry (2017)" (Draft for Comments), requiring the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power lithium battery companies to be no less than 8GWh, forcing most Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery companies to expand production capacity. On the other hand, the new energy vehicle industry, as a national strategic emerging industry, has a series of subsidies and preferential treatment from the central and local governments, attracting a large amount of funds into the new energy vehicle supporting field. Naturally, power lithium batteries, as the core of the new energy vehicle industry, will not exception.

　　In addition, competition intensifies and production is expanded to pursue economies of scale. Jiang Wangyue said that competition in my country's power lithium battery industry is fierce. On the one hand, my country has gradually relaxed restrictions on the shareholding ratio of joint venture car companies, intensifying market competition; on the other hand, with the gradual reduction of policy subsidies for lithium-ion batteries, the power lithium battery market is changing from policy-oriented to market-oriented.

　　For power lithium battery companies to stand out among many competitors, one of the important ways is to expand production. The necessary scale of production capacity can allow battery companies to reduce production costs, improve their bargaining power with vehicle companies, and obtain greater profit margins. Expanding production is also a quick way for companies to seize market share. Jiang Wangyue said.

　　Wang Qian pointed out that the direct cause of overcapacity is the confidence of various types of capital in the electrification trend of the automobile and travel industry. Capital investment has caused overcapacity and overheating of investment from the upstream. Although the share of new energy vehicles continues to expand, the limitations of new energy vehicles at this stage still make it difficult to compete head-on with internal combustion engine vehicles in a short period of time, and their limited market size cannot digest a large amount of power lithium battery production capacity.

　　The favorable policies have also greatly attracted capital. Wang Qian said that the superposition of multiple factors has caused capital from all parties to continue to increase their investment in the power lithium battery industry.

　　Impact geometry?

　　Overcapacity in the Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry will have a certain impact on the future development of the industry.

　　First, it will delay technological innovation and increase industry burdens. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that lithium-ion batteries are a capital and technology-intensive industry, and technological innovation is inseparable from the support of three major elements: capital, research and development, and talent. At present, China's Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery industry has serious overcapacity, and the overall situation is numerous, scattered and chaotic. Leading companies are rarely able to reach the international leading level in product technology level, cost control and production management system, and small and medium-sized companies are trapped in the dilemma of scale. Among them, overcapacity caused by blind expansion has resulted in waste of capital, insufficient R&D accumulation, and lack of talent, which is not conducive to Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery technology innovation.

　　Secondly, accelerate company elimination. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that due to excess low-end production capacity in the industry, most small and medium-sized companies are highly homogeneous and unable to meet high-end demand. Orders for power lithium batteries have plummeted, the market has been severely squeezed, and the company's economic benefits have continued to decline. Especially with the successive launch of Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery production capacity from 2018 to 2020, the differentiation of production capacity utilization will continue to intensify. This will be accompanied by a comprehensive differentiation of the profitability of Nickel Hydride No. 5 battery companies. Small and medium-sized manufacturers with poor profits or even losses will accelerate. Out.

　　It must be reiterated that increased investment behavior is not a bad outcome for the industry as a whole. Wang Qian said that survival of the fittest is the only way for the entire industry to mature. The negative impacts that may be caused by overheating include blindly following the trend of investment and financing behavior and the emergence of some power lithium battery manufacturers that produce for subsidies. However, these impacts will also In a short time it becomes the past tense. At present, the market share in the power lithium battery field is continuing to concentrate on leading companies. Industry integration, standardized development and the improvement of the power lithium battery industry chain from production to recycling will be completed with the dual support of capital and policies.

　　Reversing the situation and promoting healthy development

　　How to reverse the common problem of overcapacity caused by a rush of investment and promote the healthy development of the industry.

　　First, we should strengthen production capacity early warning and strengthen safety supervision. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that effective and true production capacity information can help investors and companies make reasonable decisions. A production capacity announcement and early warning mechanism can be established, and government agencies or third-party non-profit organizations can verify and publish information in a timely manner to prevent unfinished business. Engineering and pit-occupying behavior, focusing on capacity utilization and capacity changes. From the perspective of protecting the interests of consumers, we should strengthen the supervision of illegal battery products, conduct follow-up investigations on companies with battery quality and safety problems, and implement effective punitive measures.

　　Secondly, encourage market-oriented mergers and reorganizations. Jiang Wangyue said that the market will play a key role in eliminating low-end production capacity. Companies with backward technology, too small scale, and scattered forms lack competitiveness and will naturally be eliminated under the market's survival of the fittest mechanism. As the market mechanism comes into play, mergers and reorganizations among companies will accelerate, and the company's concentration and competitiveness will further increase. It is necessary to continue to play the leading and demonstration role of leading companies.

　　In addition, the focus of development has shifted from production expansion to quality improvement, cost reduction and technological breakthroughs. The current development strategy focus of mainstream power lithium battery companies is no longer on capacity expansion, but on how to optimize production capacity, improve product quality and reduce costs through core technology innovation and intelligence level improvement, and fundamentally enhance competitiveness. At present, new energy vehicle companies have put forward higher requirements for the energy density, cycle life, and safety of power lithium-ion batteries. The improvement of power lithium battery performance urgently requires technological breakthroughs. Therefore, companies should increase support for basic research, accelerate the transformation of research results, pay attention to the cultivation of talents, strengthen the coordinated development of industry, academia and research, and use technological innovation to focus on high-end fields to create competitive advantages.

　　"To improve the level of intelligent manufacturing, improving the quality, reducing costs, and optimizing production capacity of power lithium batteries play a key role. Jiang Wangyue pointed out that first, China's power lithium battery industry as a whole still wins by quantity. The production scale is large but the quality is not as good as Japan and South Korea, especially There is still a big gap in consistency; second, the power lithium battery industry belongs to the manufacturing industry, and intelligent manufacturing can help to accurately control quality and reduce production costs. Improving the level of intelligence, informatization, and automation is a systematic project. The company and the government still need to continue to invest heavily.

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