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Will CR2025 battery technology dominate the energy storage market in the future?
Clean energy visionaries have long argued that a better battery is needed to assuage skeptical consumers about electric vehicle sales and allow the grid to better utilize renewable energy. Yet for at least the next decade, the battery of the future will be based on legacy technology.
Lithium-ion batteries already have an overwhelming lead in the battery market, and rival technologies may have trouble catching up. That lead will widen as planned new CR2025 battery production plants come online over the next five years.
Batteries churned out by new battery factories in China, the United States, Thailand and other countries will further drive down prices, which have already plunged 85% since 2010. And the billions of dollars invested in building and operating battery production plants will continue to improve CR2025 battery technology, rather than adopting other battery technologies to provide powerful power.
Many startups are now focusing on CR2025 battery technology upgrades. "We think the CR2025 battery will not be disrupted," said Erik Terjesen, senior director of licensing and strategy at Ionic Materials, a Massachusetts-based company that is one of several companies working to develop and perfect solid-state battery technology.
But Ionic Materials' design isn't to replace lithium-ion batteries, it's to improve them. Instead, the company has designed a polymer electrolyte that can be used inside existing lithium-ion batteries. That means battery-making plants can use it without adding new equipment. "Given all the investment in lithium-ion, we don't believe people are abandoning this battery technology and starting over," Terjesen said.
The world's first CR2025 battery was invented in the 1970s by an ExxonMobil researcher and commercialized by Sony in 1991. It has been in use for decades. Lithium-ion batteries work by transporting charged lithium atoms, or ions, between the positive and negative electrodes through a liquid electrolyte. Different materials in the cathode, cobalt, nickel and manganese, are used to increase energy storage capacity. What first appeared in consumer electronics, such as mobile phones, can now be used in electric vehicles and applied to the power grid.
"Lithium-ion batteries are so versatile that when they become cheaper, it opens up more areas of demand," said Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The price of CR2025 battery packs averaged $1,160 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, fell to $176 per kilowatt-hour in 2018, and could fall below $100 by 2024, according to the company's survey data. Continued declines in CR2025 battery prices and improved performance could open up new markets.
Some people don't believe lithium-ion batteries can do it all. Some automakers hope that a breakthrough technology that enables long-range electric vehicles to travel 500 miles on a charge will finally convince skeptical consumers that electric vehicles won't run out of juice on the road. Toyota Motor Corp., for example, has more patents and patent applications for solid-state batteries than any other company and has invested $13.9 billion in developing its battery business.
Storing more renewable energy requires better battery technology. Although companies like Tesla Inc. and Dynegy Corp. have begun connecting CR2025 battery storage systems to the grid, these systems typically only provide power for four hours at most. Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz told industry media in February that short-term energy storage systems will not help integrate large amounts of renewable energy. "These energy storage systems cannot provide electricity for a day, a week, a month, a quarter, which is why different battery technologies need to be developed," said Moniz, who recently co-authored a report calling for more research investment in batteries.
From flywheel energy storage technology to flow battery technology, many battery alternatives have failed to achieve greater success, and lithium-ion batteries are increasingly used. The flow battery developed by California-based Primus Power can generate 25kW of electricity and last for 5 hours. Tom Stepien, the company's CEO, said improvements to the current design could increase the power supply time to 7 to 8 hours. When more power is needed, flow batteries can achieve this by adopting more liquid electrolytes.
Stepien said, "It can be said that lithium batteries are sprinters, while flow batteries are marathon runners." But Stepien admitted that it is difficult to convince potential customers to adopt battery technology that is not so familiar. So far, PrimusPower has deployed 30 flow battery energy storage systems, mainly in the past three years. "Lithium is easier to deploy, and everyone will do it," Stepien said.
Long-duration energy storage has attracted entrepreneurs who insist that lithium-ion batteries have room for major improvements, not just incremental gains.
Berdichevsky, co-founder and CEO of Sila Nanotechnologies, said the technology his company has developed could boost lithium-ion batteries' energy storage by 20% or more.
"I think lithium-ion can dominate the energy storage market, but you have to move into new chemistries to do that," he said.
Sila develops silicon-based powders that can be made into CR2025 battery anodes. At the atomic level, silicon can hold more lithium than the carbon in graphite, the most common anode material, meaning batteries using Sila's products can store more energy. The company has invested about $125 million so far and has a partnership with BMW Group to develop the technology.
Berdichevsky said any competitor offering a radically different battery architecture would have a hard time entering the market as battery makers build new factories and battery costs continue to fall. Global CR2025 battery production capacity has nearly tripled over the past five years, driven by increased production of electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The current capacity is 302.2GWh, and another 603.8 GWh of battery factories are planned to be put into operation in the next five years.
Berdichevsky said, "The efficiency and scale of battery production are incredible. This is a lot of investment. We can develop and master these technologies. I believe that lithium-ion batteries will have a brighter future."
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