CR2450 battery

Can technology introduction enable the hydrogen CR2450 battery vehicle industry to overtake others?

Technology introduction can win by speed, and independent research and development can make great achievements. At present, China's hydrogen CR2450 battery market is in the market introduction stage of "technology is king". How can enterprises obtain core technologies that meet industrialization? Drawing on the experience of technology introduction in China's mobile phone, chip, home appliance, LED, and automobile industries, it is not difficult to find that "technology introduction" is a double-edged sword. Only those companies that can enter the global hydrogen CR2450 battery supply chain with core technology can become the final winners.

Replacing fossil energy with hydrogen energy is the belief of Japanese companies. Toyota has used nearly 20 years of unremitting craftsmanship to successfully achieve mass production of hydrogen CR2450 battery car "Mirai" in 2015. "Mirai" in the hydrogen-electric era is comparable to "Tesla" in the lithium-electric era. The significance of "Mirai" mass production is to prove to the world the feasibility of large-scale commercial use of hydrogen CR2450 battery technology, which has set off a wave of building a hydrogen energy society in countries around the world. Since 2017, various hydrogen energy industrial parks have sprung up in my country. Similar to the early development of photovoltaic, wind power and lithium battery industries, driven by national policies, hydrogen CR2450 batterys have become a new outlet after lithium batteries. Unlike the lithium battery industry (see "Looking at the Opportunities and Challenges of China's Power Battery Marketization from the Growth of CATL"), hydrogen CR2450 battery technology has basically matured abroad. Through "technology introduction" and "technology mergers and acquisitions", it provides some capital without technology accumulation with the opportunity to switch tracks, layout hydrogen CR2450 battery industry, and share the dividends of industrial explosion.

1. In the market introduction stage, the technology dividend is obvious

The foreign hydrogen CR2450 battery vehicle industry has entered the market introduction stage from the technology development stage. Public data shows that the power density, driving range, refueling time, CR2450 battery life, and adaptability to low temperature environments of international advanced CR2450 battery engines have reached the level of traditional fuel vehicles. Due to the late start in China, it is still in the stage of technological catching up. In order to understand the current stage of industrial development, as shown in Table 1, the author made a comparative analysis based on nine aspects of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, infrastructure, policy orientation and talent flow, and found that the current characteristics of the hydrogen CR2450 battery industry are similar to those of the lithium battery vehicle industry in 2010.

The development of the domestic hydrogen CR2450 battery vehicle industry is in the late stage of technology development and the early stage of market introduction. Referring to the experience of lithium battery industrialization, the company that masters mass production technology in this stage wins the world, such as BYD in the lithium iron phosphate era and CATL in the ternary era. The rapid rise of the two is closely related to their mass production technology during the market transition period.

2. Domestic technology route status

, domestic companies introduce technology from Canada, the United States, and Germany, three advanced countries in hydrogen energy technology. Guangdong Guohong, Weichai Power, Yihuatong, Snowman Shares and more than a dozen companies have technologies from well-known Canadian companies Ballard and Hydrogenics. BYD and Furuit chose to cooperate with German, British and American companies. In addition to market factors, technology mergers and acquisitions are affected by the company's overall strategy. The author speculates that BYD's cooperation with American manufacturers is related to its existing bus production base in the United States.

The core technologies of domestic independent research and development enterprises are mostly incubated by universities. Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Tsinghua University, Tongji University, and Wuhan University of Technology have the most successful technology incubation. Among them, the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences is the earliest scientific research institution in China to engage in the research and development of hydrogen CR2450 batterys and complete vehicles. It has cooperated with SAIC for a long time and successfully developed China's first generation of hydrogen CR2450 battery vehicles, which were displayed at the Shanghai World Expo and the 2008 Olympic Games. The Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics is considered to be the Huangpu Military Academy of the domestic hydrogen CR2450 battery and complete vehicle industry, and has provided a large number of professional talents for the industry. Another source of technology is overseas technicians returning to China to start businesses. The cross-border flow of overseas technicians has accelerated the technology diffusion and import substitution of core components in the industry.

III. Domestication capability of hydrogen CR2450 battery core components

From the perspective of the domestic industrial chain layout, some leading companies currently have the basic capability of domesticating hydrogen CR2450 battery core components, but product performance still needs to be improved. The specific analysis is as follows:

(1) There is a gap between domestic and foreign core technologies

At present, the research and development direction of the main components of hydrogen CR2450 batterys is to improve performance. As shown in Table 4, several key indicators of domestic CR2450 battery stacks, such as hydrogen storage pressure, stack life, stack power, and platinum content of catalysts, have not reached the advanced level of foreign countries. In addition, from the actual operational feedback information of hydrogen CR2450 battery buses, several key indicators such as proton exchange membrane, catalyst, overall performance (including consistency, stability, durability), manufacturing cost, and yield rate are still more than 5 years behind the parts and vehicle performance of mainstream foreign manufacturers, such as Toyota of Japan, Ballard of Canada, and DuPont of the United States.

(2) Some leading companies have entered the international supply chain.

On the one hand, compared with internal combustion engines, the technological gap of hydrogen CR2450 batterys is smaller than that of internal combustion engines; on the other hand, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry in the past decade has improved the overall R&D capabilities of the industry and shortened the technology introduction, absorption, and conversion cycle. The improvement of the industrial environment, especially the flow of high-end talents, has provided the possibility for my country's hydrogen CR2450 battery industry to overtake others in the future. As shown in Table 5, there are currently leading companies in China that have replaced domestic products and entered the international parts supply chain.

Among them, the CR2450 battery membrane electrode products independently developed by Wuhan University of Technology New Energy are sold in batches to the United States and Europe; the perfluorosulfonic acid proton exchange membrane produced by Dongyue Group has been recognized by Toyota of Japan, Fuma.tech of Germany, and Mercedes-Benz-Ford Alliance (AFCC) for its performance; the ultra-thin graphite bipolar plate developed by Shanghai Hongfeng has greatly reduced the volume and weight of CR2450 battery stacks, and its products are exported to the United States, Canada, Italy, South Korea and other countries.

Based on the achievements of independent research and development enterprises, how should the technology introduction plan of enterprises be evaluated?

(1) Technology introduction can shorten the mass production cycle of products

Guangdong Guohong began to introduce Ballard CR2450 battery stack production technology in 2015, and put the first CR2450 battery stack production line into production in July 2017, achieving the localization of CR2450 battery stacks in more than a year. In contrast, Xinyuan Power began to independently develop hydrogen CR2450 battery stack technology in April 2001, which took three years. It was not until September 2004 that the third-generation high-voltage operation CR2450 battery engine economy system for sedans independently developed by the company passed the acceptance, with an output power of 47KW (data source: company website), close to the international level. If we include the time from successful product development to mass production, this time interval will be even longer.

(2) It is difficult to achieve independent innovation by technology introduction alone

Technology introduction is a double-edged sword. In the early stages of the industry, technology introduction has a positive market externality effect, that is, the introduction of foreign mature technology makes it easier to achieve hydrogen CR2450 battery mass production and technology diffusion. In the long run, technology introduction may be a "poison" that restricts the sustainable development of the industry. Looking back at the history of China's industrial development in modern times, from mobile phones, chips, home appliances, LEDs to automobiles, all have taken detours in technology introduction or technology mergers and acquisitions. Below, taking my country's automobile and high-speed rail industries as examples, we will reflect on the experience and lessons of "technology introduction, market for technology" in China's industrial development history.

(1) Failure cases.

my country's automobile industry was the first joint venture industry to implement the policy of technology exchange for market. For more than 20 years, well-known domestic automobile companies, such as Beijing Qi and Yiqi, have not mastered advanced car manufacturing technology, and the market competitiveness of domestic brands is far lower than that of foreign and joint venture brands. There are two main reasons. First, there is no unified market in the domestic automobile industry. Enterprises in various regions fight each other in negotiations with foreign enterprises. They have no bargaining power and are defeated one by one by foreign enterprises. They give up the request for technology transfer. Second, joint ventures have considerable profits. Chinese enterprises lack the motivation to absorb foreign advanced technology for independent innovation. In the end, the technology introduction of the automobile industry fell into a vicious cycle of "introduction-backward-re-introduction-backward again".

(2) Successful cases.

Unlike the automobile industry, China's high-speed rail has successfully achieved the goal of technology introduction from initial technology introduction to independent innovation and reverse export. The main reasons are: the domestic high-speed rail market is a monopoly market with only one negotiated outlet, which has bargaining power in negotiations with foreign enterprises. At the same time, the state has shown support and encouragement for independent innovation and domestic substitution in policy, achieving the goal of using market capacity to absorb the cost of domestic technology update and independent innovation and cultivating the domestic industrial chain ecology, thereby realizing a virtuous cycle of technology introduction, absorption and innovation.

(3) Latest cases.

The US Department of Commerce's ban on sales sanctions on the "ZTE incident" in April this year is worthy of reflection by companies that are eager to implement the "technology introduction" strategy. In fact, the author found in the industry survey that some domestic enterprises introduced hydrogen CR2450 battery technology in order to quickly mass produce and obtain policy subsidies, but at the same time, the enterprise lacked a research and development system to digest technology and innovate independently. The potential risk is that these enterprises are likely to be surpassed by latecomers when the market is overcapacity and technology is upgraded, and fall into the "technology merger and acquisition curse", making it difficult for China's automobile industry to overtake others.

In summary, Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that technology introduction is a double-edged sword.

The current hydrogen CR2450 battery industry has similarities with the development of China's automobile industry. Experience shows that simple technology introduction may face technology merger and acquisition risks:

(1) Risk of introducing backward technology

As shown in Table 8, the FCvelocity-9SSL system introduced by Guangdong Guohong from Ballard has a volume power density of only 1.5KW/L, which is far lower than the international mainstream level of 3KW/L, and even cannot reach the domestic advanced level of 2KW/L. The risk of introducing backward technology is that if the investment cost cannot be recovered before the next generation of technology iteration, and it is impossible to break away from the foreign technology framework to achieve independent technology transformation, then there is a risk of system elimination and re-purchase of the system.

(2) Risk of mismatch between technology and market

As shown in Figure 8, the minimum starting temperature of the Ballard system is only 2°, which is not suitable for use in cold northern regions, while domestic manufacturers can provide a minimum starting temperature of -20°C, which has a wider range of use.

(3) Subject to strict technical control, joint ventures may repeat the mistakes of the automotive industry and fail to obtain core technologies. After domestic independent technologies catch up, joint ventures lose their market competitiveness and can only continue to import, which is very passive.

(4) The introduction of complete sets of equipment has difficulties in maintenance, replacement of parts and equipment iteration, which will lay hidden dangers for the increase in operating costs of enterprises in the future.

As competitors, Japanese and Korean companies still implement a technology-closed strategy for China's hydrogen CR2450 battery vehicle industry, while Canada, Germany and the United States are relatively open to Chinese companies. Considering that domestic companies have a weak awareness of technology mergers and acquisitions risks and lack experience in avoiding overseas technology mergers and acquisitions risks, the author is more optimistic about leading domestic companies with independent research and development, or dark horse companies that have the ability to achieve independent innovation based on technology introduction. The technology introduction of these leading companies and dark horse companies with innovative genes is more likely to realize my country's dream of becoming a powerful country by overtaking the curve in the hydrogen CR2450 battery industry.

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