As of the end of 2018, my country's electrochemical energy storage market
had a cumulative installed capacity of 1,033.7 MW, exceeding the GW level for
the first time. Electrochemical energy storage has entered a relatively fast
start-up stage, the industry's popularity continues to rise, and the external
environment continues to improve. Entering 2019, energy storage projects have
increased and market acceptance has continued to increase. At the beginning of
the year, the State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid
Corporation successively issued guidance on promoting the development of energy
storage, sending a positive signal to the development of the energy storage
industry. Industry experts believe that in the future, the main customer of
energy storage will still be the power grid industry. Not only the demand for
projects, but also the development, application and improvement of energy
storage technology will gradually increase with the rapid development of power
grid energy storage. As it becomes more mature and stable, grid-side energy
storage will develop greatly. As the proportion of new energy power generation
continues to increase, the active role of energy storage in solving the problem
of new energy access to the power grid may become a necessary requirement. The
risk of energy storage participating in peak-valley difference arbitrage may be
very high. Peak-valley power replacement is just a market behavior. It will
slightly improve the operation of the power grid, but it will not have much
impact on the supply side. The entire energy pattern will not change in any way,
and this After the spot market is established, the peak-to-valley electricity
price will disappear from the historical stage. The risk of using energy storage
to participate in the market may be very high. There is a certain market for
absorbing surplus hydropower and wind power in the valley, but it is not large.
Modern large power grids are fully capable of absorbing it. In the future, the
entire energy structure will change. Fossil energy will gradually decrease. The
largest one in our country is gas, and the second one is photovoltaic. If the
future is a scarce resource, meaning these prices will be very expensive, will
our valley electricity prices be low? At this time, there is a huge risk in
using this to make profits from peak and valley power replacement. It is not
possible to use energy storage for auxiliary services, including peak
regulation, frequency regulation, voltage regulation, and black start. What's
the point of this approach? Peak shaving: Energy storage does not match
photovoltaic power generation. There is a certain market for absorbing surplus
hydropower and wind power in low valleys. Frequency regulation: The larger the
grid capacity, the smaller the impact of load fluctuations on system frequency.
The properties of traditional power sources (thermal power, gas power,
hydropower, pumped storage) are sufficient for this job. Small grids and
isolated grids can play a role. Voltage regulation: It is meaningless for large
systems, but it is suitable for small power grids and isolated power grids.
Black start: feasible for isolated grids, small power grids, and users, but
meaningless for large systems. In fact, these functions can play a role in
foreign microgrids and small grids. For example, in Australia and New Zealand,
some places have electricity markets. Here there is a photovoltaic power
generation and battery energy storage, which can basically meet the needs of
microgrids. Many people do this abroad. In our country, when every village and
every household is now connected to electricity, and when we are building a huge
power grid from the bottom up, this approach is basically negligible. For
example, regarding peak shaving and frequency modulation, what is the current
pass rate? Within plus or minus 0.1 Hz, the average pass rate is 100%, and the
voltage pass rate is above 99.99%. Under such circumstances, wouldn’t it be a
huge waste of social resources to invest in huge energy storage equipment for
peak and frequency regulation? Because in fact, society does not need it. If you
have to invest in it, it is actually replacing something that was done well with
a new thing. It is not advisable to use energy storage to provide auxiliary
services. Many foreign people have talked about this idea before, but now many
domestic people have also transferred funds to this idea and want to develop
energy storage. The west is the main battlefield for photovoltaics. Humanity's
future energy must be solved by solar energy. Most of human resources come from
the sun. Everything we eat, drink and play comes from the sun directly or
indirectly, so energy problems can also be solved by the sun. From a macro
perspective, solar energy is endless. Doing photovoltaic power generation in the
east is a concept, and the west is the main battlefield. Our country is
obviously different from the rest of the world. From Yunnan Tengchong to Heihe
River in Heilongjiang, the "Tenghei Line" is the boundary. More than 90% of the
human, financial and material resources are located in this place. From a macro
perspective, photovoltaic power generation in the east is just a concept because
there is no land. If there was land, housing prices would not be so expensive.
From the perspective of the "Belt and Road Initiative", Africa is the main
battlefield. The lighting time in the east is about 1,000 hours, and in the west
it may reach about 1,400 hours. In Africa, I only know that they are black. What
does black mean? Just bask in the sun, that's where the main battlefield is.
Large-capacity energy storage technology will have a breakthrough.
Large-capacity energy storage technology will have a breakthrough. Four or five
years ago, electric vehicles could travel 100 kilometers. Now, hydrogen fuel
cells have been mass-produced and have traveled more than 1,000 kilometers. If
it can reach more than 2,000 kilometers, what state will it be? This means that
a battery of one hundred kilograms can store 150-200 kilowatt hours of
electricity. If this scale can be achieved, the absorption of clean energy in
the entire photovoltaic field will not be a problem. How to do it? On-site
energy storage is converted into energy blocks. The most developed thing in our
country is the Internet of Things, which allows for off-site power replacement.
I think this is the main means to solve the problem of absorbing clean energy
and is also the main means for photovoltaic power to take off in the future.
Each user can be a distributed power source, but using wind and light from a
different place. We are not like Germany, where every household has a villa and
living is spread out. Ours is very microscopic and was transported very quickly.
It is all photovoltaic power generation, but it uses wind and light from other
places. This will be a great pattern. Each household has about 200-300
kilowatt-hours of electricity. A battery can produce 200 kilowatt-hours of
electricity, and only one battery is needed a month. Electricity sales companies
and all enterprises can take into account the energy of each battery. When every
household replaces the battery, the money will be credited to your account. In
Guangdong Province, 16% of urban and rural residents have electricity needs,
which means that urban and rural residents consume 100 billion kilowatt-hours of
electricity per year, which is a very large scale. For example, BAIC New Energy
can focus on battery replacement. Charging locally costs 1.6 yuan. If you get it
from the West or Africa, photovoltaic power generation can cost 10 cents, 20
cents, or 30 cents. This business opportunity is huge. big. What are the
consequences of the supply-side energy consumption revolution? Fossil energy and
emissions have been significantly reduced, and the proportion of clean energy
has increased significantly; investment in power sources and power grids has
been significantly reduced. Stop building dense power grids, otherwise there
will be no place to live; power supply is gradually decentralized, which is the
key to future energy security. important means. It is really better to use gas
tanks for electricity supply. Once the battery is used up, it can be delivered
directly. Moreover, it is free of time and space. Electricity is a commodity for
the common people. It is just a commodity. You can buy it on JD.com or build one
at the power grid company. Platform, buy it and deliver it directly. And it's
supermarket-style, it's a simple product that you can buy and use. This is a
true supply-side energy consumption revolution, using all photovoltaic products
for photovoltaic products and quickly solving problems through energy. This is
also a thorough market-oriented reform, and the battery money will be given to
whomever is taken. The western region will usher in great development, and
problems of imbalance and inadequacy will be resolved. The great pattern of the
“One Road, One Belt” energy strategy and the comprehensive development of solar
energy in Africa are shared and win-win. The fourth generation industrial
revolution, such as robots, mainly does simple and boring things. Photovoltaic
power generation robots in the desert can do it. They constantly change
batteries for you. If you control it again, driverless cars can do it. Drones
can also be used to load containers and transport them to the Greater Bay Area
through cargo terminals. There will be profound revolutions in both the energy
and technology landscape. If photovoltaics wants to achieve great development in
the future, it must rely on these things to achieve it, and our country has the
most realistic market atmosphere, and the economic structure of our entire land
is located here. Unlike the United States and Europe, where every place is
scattered and does not have these needs, we have this strategic need. Once this
problem is solved, the goals of this energy revolution will be successfully
achieved.
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