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New study shows falling 18650 battery 3500mah costs pose threat to coal and gas
According to new research from BNEF, both lithium-ion batteries and offshore wind energy have significantly improved their competitiveness in the past year. Just a few years ago, these two technologies were immature and expensive, but they are now at the center of the unfolding low-carbon energy transition. New analysis from research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows that the baseline cost of electricity (LCOE) for lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% since the first half of 2018 to $187 per megawatt hour. Meanwhile, offshore wind energy benchmark LCOE has fallen 24%.
Onshore wind and solar PV have also become cheaper, with their respective benchmark LCOE reaching $50 and $57 per MWh respectively, for projects starting construction in early 2019. This is down 10% from the same period a year ago. and 18%.
Elena Giannakopoulou, head of energy economics at BNEF, said: "Looking back over the past decade, the cost competitiveness of these low-carbon energy sources has improved dramatically due to technological innovation, economies of scale, fierce price competition and manufacturing experience. Our analysis shows that since 2010 The LCOE per MWh of onshore wind, solar PV and offshore wind has fallen by 49%, 84% and 56% respectively since 2012. Based on recent project costs and historical 18650 battery 3500mah pack prices, lithium-ion 18650 battery 3500mah storage costs have declined since 2012. down 76% since then.”
In the LCOE update, the most striking finding in the first half of 2019 was the cost improvement of lithium-ion batteries. These provide them with new opportunities to balance a power generation mix dominated by renewable energy.
Batteries co-located with solar or wind projects are beginning to compete in many markets and without subsidies, with coal and gas-fired generation used to provide "dispatchable power" that can be delivered when the grid needs it (as opposed to only when when it is windy or sunny).
Electricity demand has distinct peaks and valleys during the day. The report says Peak Energy has been home to technologies such as open-cycle gas turbines and reciprocating gas engines, but these technologies now face competition from batteries, which can store energy for anywhere from one hour to four hours.
BNEF's energy economics analyst Tifenn Brandily added that in most countries, solar PV and onshore wind have won the race to become the cheapest sources of new "bulk power generation", but the deepening development of clean technologies now extends well beyond that, Threaten the balancing role that operators of gas-fired power plants in particular have been hoping to play.
Offshore wind is often seen as a relatively expensive power generation option compared to onshore wind or solar PV. However, auctions of new capacity, coupled with much larger turbines, have significantly reduced capital costs, pushing the global benchmark price for the technology below $100 per megawatt hour, which was just five years ago. The price is over $220.
The low prices promised in offshore wind tenders across Europe are now being realized, with several high-profile projects nearing completion of financing in recent months. Over the past six months, it's seen the biggest cost declines of any technology we've seen.
Although solar PV's LCOE fell by 18% last year, the vast majority of the decline occurred in the third quarter of 2018, when a shift in Chinese policy led to a global module oversupply, rather than in recent months.
BNEF's LCOE analysis is based on actual project commencement information and proprietary pricing information from suppliers. The database covers nearly 7,000 projects in 46 countries around the world, involving 20 technologies (including various types of coal, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy).
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